The next Black Swan event

M

mutluit

The next Black Swan event could be...
- A meteor/astroid hitting ... for example... NY... or... Israel... or...
- Discovering that gold is worthless b/c so abundant somewhere
- If Germany's gold reserves abroad cannot be located, ie. stolen....
- ...add yours...
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

If you could predict what the next black swan event would be, it wouldnt be a black swan event, would it? :)
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the answer is yes it would be a black swan event.
review the definition of black swan event.
 
zdreg said:
the answer is yes it would be a black swan event.
review the definition of black swan event.
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" An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict." (Investopedia).

mutluit said:
The next Black Swan event could be...
- A meteor/astroid hitting ... for example... NY... or... Israel... or...
- Discovering that gold is worthless b/c so abundant somewhere
- If Germany's gold reserves abroad cannot be located, ie. stolen....
- ...add yours...
More...
Mine would be a mathematical relation :

Black Swan == { df < kest } ,
where
df is the doom fraction, and
kest is the best Kelly-fraction estimate available.

df == 1/max[ .001, max[ -Ri ]_i=1toN ]

For an example, the doom fraction of this system is 1, so we do have a Black Swan scenario if no kest value less than one can be found.
 
thanks for a serious response. mine was said in jest. just becomes one fool makes an outrageous forecast correctly does not negate the fact that it is a black swan event according to the definition of a black swan event.
 
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