(another thread got me thinking about this....)
In the late 1960's and 1970's commodities were the place to be for traders (up trending markets).
In the 1980's debt (bonds) was the place to be.
In the 1990's equity (stocks) was where it was at.
What will be hot in the 2000's?
I remember Michael Milken saying that it was debt in the 80's and equity in the 90's (this was in the early 90's). Have not heard much from him lately.
Real estate seems like a local phenomenon where local land restrictions and local immigration are just as important to prices as nationwide trends like inflation. So I'll leave real estate out of this discussion.
My prediction - commodities will be where its at by the end of the decade.
Globalization, which opened up new sources of supply and deflation - is in need of a breather. The war on terror is a break on further globalization. Everyone who has a commodity to sell can already sell it except for a few examples like North Korea. Newly industrialized countries like China are soaking up more and more of the available commodities.
The US dollar is over-owned and will no longer be the international store of value. People will have to put their money into tangible things vs. intangible things like debt. So in general, commodities, currencies from countries that export a lot of commodities (Canada), perhaps farmland. Jimmy Rogers made this prediction before he went on his round the world trip. The thing he missed was that with the end of the cold war and with globalization - world commodity supply would increase. Now, supply and demand are coming into balance and perhaps shifting toward demand.
Of course as a trader you can make money in any market going up or down as long as it fluctuates.
What do you think?
In the late 1960's and 1970's commodities were the place to be for traders (up trending markets).
In the 1980's debt (bonds) was the place to be.
In the 1990's equity (stocks) was where it was at.
What will be hot in the 2000's?
I remember Michael Milken saying that it was debt in the 80's and equity in the 90's (this was in the early 90's). Have not heard much from him lately.
Real estate seems like a local phenomenon where local land restrictions and local immigration are just as important to prices as nationwide trends like inflation. So I'll leave real estate out of this discussion.
My prediction - commodities will be where its at by the end of the decade.
Globalization, which opened up new sources of supply and deflation - is in need of a breather. The war on terror is a break on further globalization. Everyone who has a commodity to sell can already sell it except for a few examples like North Korea. Newly industrialized countries like China are soaking up more and more of the available commodities.
The US dollar is over-owned and will no longer be the international store of value. People will have to put their money into tangible things vs. intangible things like debt. So in general, commodities, currencies from countries that export a lot of commodities (Canada), perhaps farmland. Jimmy Rogers made this prediction before he went on his round the world trip. The thing he missed was that with the end of the cold war and with globalization - world commodity supply would increase. Now, supply and demand are coming into balance and perhaps shifting toward demand.
Of course as a trader you can make money in any market going up or down as long as it fluctuates.
What do you think?
