The next American Home Mortgage
- Thread starter michaelscott
- Start date
Maybe not quite AHM, but I've been riding CPT from 66 to about 56 over the last month. I still think this stock is quite a bit overvalued so we'll see where it goes from here.
DFC 8.87 -1.03 -10.4%
IMH 2.06 -0.5 -19.5%
HMB 0.33 -0.27 -45.0%
AFN 4.1 -0.59 -12.6%
TMA 24.67 -0.07 -0.3%
LEND 8.21 -2.01 -19.7%
NTR 1.02 0.01 1.0%
LUM 7.02 -0.31 -4.2%
NFI 6.99 -2.65 -27.5%
CFC 27.22 -0.95 -3.4%
Not a bad day's work.
Ok I am looking for opinions(keep it civil, ok?). I like everyone have been shrting and buying puts on the worse of the mortgage lenders. Made a small fortune on the Aug 27.50 CFC put when CFC was still 31.50(now $25).
Any how next play for me was LEND. Was making a fortune on the puts Friday untill that retard Cramer, went on air and said that hiis "interpretation" of the "definitive agreement" they had in the works was iron clad and there was no way the other entity could get out of the deal. This was pure hype for if you read the "definitive agreement" there is more exit routes that you can count. Anyway here's cramer opening his stupid trap and creating a buying frenzy. I had a 5 figure profit on the trade in less than a trading day and had to sell for a mild profit instead of a huge one. I do not think the deal will go through, just cramer trying to bail out his hedge funds friends.
Ok so today I targeted NFI. I had been reading up on the SEC filings and fundamentals, looked at the charts, read the message boards and decided I would go after it, since it looked like the next in line to go bankrupt after AHM.
Well I bought cheap puts in the morning and was looking good. I had only a 10% gain at this point, but the chart was setting up for the big fall. Then while I was on break, lo and behold, here comes cramer to the rescue again! He mentions on thestreet.com that NFI was to start wrting loand again Tuesday. Well the damn stock went up 2 bucks in 10 min! Later AP and Reuters, etc released the same 2 paragraph story.
What I say is big deal, they might be opening back up the loan seervicing, however I see this as a ploy that they hope will temporary keep them from tanking before the filing of bankruptcy. They said this most likely because the FED isn't going to raise rates tommorrow and the fed isn't going to bail the mortgage sector out.
Without getting longwinded here, we know the fundamentals and earning have to be horrible for NFI. I beleive the forces that will lead to bankruptcy where already in place months ago and they cannot be altered or stopped. No CDO money, the inability to securitize and sell their mortgages in bonds, having to take the charge offs, margin call could happen at anyday now, etc
So here is what I am asking for the folks that have studied and looked into the matter.
Do you think that NFI will file bankruptcy, if so when. What about LEND? Will they follow the same fate?
All informed and intelligent opinions are requested!!!
Any how next play for me was LEND. Was making a fortune on the puts Friday untill that retard Cramer, went on air and said that hiis "interpretation" of the "definitive agreement" they had in the works was iron clad and there was no way the other entity could get out of the deal. This was pure hype for if you read the "definitive agreement" there is more exit routes that you can count. Anyway here's cramer opening his stupid trap and creating a buying frenzy. I had a 5 figure profit on the trade in less than a trading day and had to sell for a mild profit instead of a huge one. I do not think the deal will go through, just cramer trying to bail out his hedge funds friends.
Ok so today I targeted NFI. I had been reading up on the SEC filings and fundamentals, looked at the charts, read the message boards and decided I would go after it, since it looked like the next in line to go bankrupt after AHM.
Well I bought cheap puts in the morning and was looking good. I had only a 10% gain at this point, but the chart was setting up for the big fall. Then while I was on break, lo and behold, here comes cramer to the rescue again! He mentions on thestreet.com that NFI was to start wrting loand again Tuesday. Well the damn stock went up 2 bucks in 10 min! Later AP and Reuters, etc released the same 2 paragraph story.
What I say is big deal, they might be opening back up the loan seervicing, however I see this as a ploy that they hope will temporary keep them from tanking before the filing of bankruptcy. They said this most likely because the FED isn't going to raise rates tommorrow and the fed isn't going to bail the mortgage sector out.
Without getting longwinded here, we know the fundamentals and earning have to be horrible for NFI. I beleive the forces that will lead to bankruptcy where already in place months ago and they cannot be altered or stopped. No CDO money, the inability to securitize and sell their mortgages in bonds, having to take the charge offs, margin call could happen at anyday now, etc
So here is what I am asking for the folks that have studied and looked into the matter.
Do you think that NFI will file bankruptcy, if so when. What about LEND? Will they follow the same fate?
All informed and intelligent opinions are requested!!!
I think that's the motive of some. However I do not think it will work past a day or two. The weight of the short is to much. Most of the sharts where done at prices 3-4 times what they are now so that professional money has alot of room to move.
I see this postering as just a ploy to wring a little more dough out of 2 co.s that will file bankruptcy whithin day, a couple of weeks at most. Fed wont raise rates tommorrow and that shoudl result in a sell off of the unfounded gains they made today.
I see this postering as just a ploy to wring a little more dough out of 2 co.s that will file bankruptcy whithin day, a couple of weeks at most. Fed wont raise rates tommorrow and that shoudl result in a sell off of the unfounded gains they made today.
Strictly for entertainment: I actually interviewed a guy for a position today, from AHM. My jaw hit the floor and bounced when I pulled up his resume and saw the last place he worked for.
And, to complete the irony, the position we're interviewing for involves....drum rolls please....risk management.
I swear. You absolutely cannot make this sh*t up.
And, to complete the irony, the position we're interviewing for involves....drum rolls please....risk management.
I swear. You absolutely cannot make this sh*t up.
Well NFI as suspected went down 25% for the day to end at 5.12(now 5.08, with the next step 4.80 in AH trading).
What caused the artificial rise yesterday was idiot cramer saying on the street.com that they would resume giving loans starting today. Well they did resume loan servicing, how ever the new loans are only 1 type of loan product and no others can be offered. Here is the terms./
(1) FICO of 700 or above. (2) Solid job history and prove of long term employement and income documentation and (3) if you get the loan the interest rate will be 12%!!!
So basically they now only offer 1 loan product that if you can quality, you can get at 6% fixed anywhere else. In other words, they never had the intention of servicing any more loans. It was a fraudulent pump and dump to get the execs and hedge funds out of the stock before bankruptcy is declared.
The stock would have tanked much more today, but the specialist held it up at times so it wouldn't tank to fast. LUM basically declared today it's insolvency and insinuated that margin calls would do it in, the shares lost 75% of their value today, bankruptcy should be annnounced at any time.
LUM began the day at $4.30. A level that I see NFI at tommorrow morning when after hours trading would take it's toll. NFI earnings report comes out thurs. I believe that the earnings report is going to show such mounting losses that mist likely bankruptcy will be declared at that time. If bankruptcy isn't declared at that moment the stock will take a hit similiar to AHM and now LUM before declaring bankruptcy.
So there you have it. LUM was a great play today, but is finished, not much more it can slide. NFI was a great play today and will slide like LUM over the next 2 days, the earnings report will be the final blow.
You can still buy awfully cheap puts for NFI, something to consider. IF NFI tanks to nothing and are delisted to the pinksheets like AHM, those puts will be worth $$$$$$$! Enjoy!
What caused the artificial rise yesterday was idiot cramer saying on the street.com that they would resume giving loans starting today. Well they did resume loan servicing, how ever the new loans are only 1 type of loan product and no others can be offered. Here is the terms./
(1) FICO of 700 or above. (2) Solid job history and prove of long term employement and income documentation and (3) if you get the loan the interest rate will be 12%!!!
So basically they now only offer 1 loan product that if you can quality, you can get at 6% fixed anywhere else. In other words, they never had the intention of servicing any more loans. It was a fraudulent pump and dump to get the execs and hedge funds out of the stock before bankruptcy is declared.
The stock would have tanked much more today, but the specialist held it up at times so it wouldn't tank to fast. LUM basically declared today it's insolvency and insinuated that margin calls would do it in, the shares lost 75% of their value today, bankruptcy should be annnounced at any time.
LUM began the day at $4.30. A level that I see NFI at tommorrow morning when after hours trading would take it's toll. NFI earnings report comes out thurs. I believe that the earnings report is going to show such mounting losses that mist likely bankruptcy will be declared at that time. If bankruptcy isn't declared at that moment the stock will take a hit similiar to AHM and now LUM before declaring bankruptcy.
So there you have it. LUM was a great play today, but is finished, not much more it can slide. NFI was a great play today and will slide like LUM over the next 2 days, the earnings report will be the final blow.
You can still buy awfully cheap puts for NFI, something to consider. IF NFI tanks to nothing and are delisted to the pinksheets like AHM, those puts will be worth $$$$$$$! Enjoy!
Any one care to comment on who they think is the next non-bank mortgage lender that will file bankruptcy? NFI, LEND, LUM, etc!!!
I think NFI will declare bankruptcy thurs. or Friday. earnings are supposed to finally come out thurs.(they have been delayed untill the last minute).
Losses will be dramatic as the margin calls and charge offs increase in number. They are running 2.2 billion in debt and only have 80m in cash reserves left. The next margin call from an institutinal bank will do them in. I think they will file bankruptcy ASAP to try and protect the last remaining assets they have left!
Opinions and observations welcome!!!
I think NFI will declare bankruptcy thurs. or Friday. earnings are supposed to finally come out thurs.(they have been delayed untill the last minute).
Losses will be dramatic as the margin calls and charge offs increase in number. They are running 2.2 billion in debt and only have 80m in cash reserves left. The next margin call from an institutinal bank will do them in. I think they will file bankruptcy ASAP to try and protect the last remaining assets they have left!
Opinions and observations welcome!!!
what happened to the posts? the stock is up a measley $2.00 and now no one is commenting on it (nfi)? i played out the TMA puts but they have a lot more book value than it's currently at AND they finally suspended their dividend so they can have a little cash on hand. i think LEND may be an option. the december 10 calls would be good at $1.20 last. the court is expediting the case and i think lone star is going to lose so they will have to buy the stock at $15.10. i would say the september calls but the trial is not until late sept early october and it's only $40 more for december. if you buy the stock instead of the options it's only $500 and you will get $1500 when it goes up instead of $500 on $120. of course, that's $1500 on $360 if you do 3 contracts. hmm..tough choice. you could sell calls on the stock but i don't think they're worth much.