In other games, tomorrow sees GB go into Detroit as 3 1/2 point favorites. This is the perfect example of a game to avoid. Too really good offenses that can explode at any moment, so a shootout is a good possibility. That kind of game will get determined on turnovers, and if you can predict those, be my guest.
Dallas hosts the Jets as a 14 point favorite. The idea here is that the Jets defense will be torched by the Boys. Could happen, but the Jets are not a terrible team, record notwithstanding. You can ask the Steelers. I really don't like this game at all.
In the other Thanskgiving Day game, Indy visits Atlanta and gives 11 1/2. Atlanta is a bad team, and a blow out is the most likely outcome. But what if bad Indy shows up, like the last two weeks? Let's hope they don't, because I am taking indy and giving the 11 1/2.
In Sunday action, the Ravens go cross country to play the Chargers who are 9 1/2 point favorites. I am having trouble getting my arms around the concept of the Ravens as a punching bag team that should get a big spread against an inconsistent team like the Bolts. Still, the Ravens have sucked, so I want to avoid this one.
Denver comes to Chicago as a 2 1/2 point underdog. Denver is suddenly on fire and a realistic playoff team. Reality has set in for Chicago however. They would have to win out to make the playoffs. Tough game to figure. Probably Denver is a good wager here, but I am still not on board with them so I will pass.
Cincy hosts the Titans in a pick'em game. I have maligned Vince Young repeatedly, but I saw a little of last week's game and I was frankly pretty darn impressed by his quick delivery, arm strength and accuracy. Too bad his receivers suck. Cincy meanwhile is on official suicide watch. A season is a a terrible thing to waste, and this year has certainly been a bitter disappointment for a team which came in thinking it was ready for the next step. If you just want to gamble, like Sammy Farha, then I say I would go with the titans and Jeff Fisher, one of the league's best and most underrated coaches. For myself, I'm passing as Tennessee is too inconsistent for me, and Cincy is not totally hopeless.
KC hosts Oakland and is a 5 1/2 point favorite. I like KC here, but I don't see giving that much. They are a four win team who have scored less points than everybody but SF and Atlanta. So no choice but to avoid.
I'd really like to see the Browns at home against the Texans. Cleveland is the league's hottest team, a real cinderalla story. Houston is not a bad team at all, a bit unlucky at times or they would be in the middle of a playoff race. Cleveland gives 3 1/2, which seems about right. Cleveland however has given up the most points in the league. Only cincy is even close. This could easily be another shootout, settled by a FG or INT. Not for me, avoid.
Seattle visits St. Loius and is a 3 point favorite. I know St. Loius has got some people back from injury, but they couldn't do anything against SF last week. Of course SF did even less against them and lost. Seattle has its own injury issues, but if the Bears couldn't take advantage of them, i don't see how the Rams can. I'm going with the Seahawks and giving the 3.
The NY Giants play host to the Vikes and are giving 7. Two pretty similar teams actually, only the giants are a little better at key positions. I don't have a good handle on the Vikes, so I'm going to pass.
NO visits Carolina and is a 3 point favorite. I have missed layup bets against Carolina the last two weeks because I underestimated their QB situation. On the other hand, NO is one of the most up and down teams around. It's not like NO has to do a lot more than win the game. Taking NO and giving the 3.
Arizona is at home against SF and is giving 10 1/2. This is the flip side of that big spread favoring the Ravens. I just struggle with the notion that Arizona gives double digits, even against one of the league's worst and at home. Shouldn't they be happy just to get a win? Now a five win team like the Cards has to struggle under the expectations of a 10 1/2 point spread? But SF has been so terrible, I will go with the Cards in any case. Cards giving 10 1/2.
NE is at home against Philly and is a whopping 22 point favorite. If McNabb plays, that seems like a juicy target to me. The Iggles have a stout defense and have faced some good offenses. However, they were also shredded by one of them, Dallas. Got to avoid this one. Too many points to give, but are you really going to take them? Not me.
In the MNF game, the Steelers host Miami as 16 point favorites. Seems like a lot for a team that just lost to the Jets, but this Steeler team seems to send a replacement team on road trips. At home, they are the real deal. Are the Steelers at home a TD better than Philly? I say yes, and take them and give the 16.
My observation for this week is that there a lot of games with favorites giving huge numbers. Probably the books have taken a beating on NO, and although I don't have the stats to prove it, it seems to me that this has been a year when teams covered a lot of big spreads. So the spreads get even bigger.
