The beard and sports jacket. Official uniform of economists everywhere.
The myth that Obama saved us from the great depression
- Thread starter Max E.
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The beard and sports jacket. Official uniform of economists everywhere.
Thank you. And you make good points. There's a moderating effect to all this QE and stimulus, in terms of commodity inflation (energy/food/clothing), which is somewhat offset itself, by the "wealth effect" (appreciating portfolio values) etc. It's definitely not a wash (10% of deficit = 10% of GDP growth). Maybe 10% deficit only equals 7.5% GDP. But that 7.5% GDP, of "borrowed growth", if you follow, does have a ripple effect, as money is spent and changes hands throughout the economy (the baker analogy). It's not an exact science, but the numbers being thrown around (13% = deficit + QE) plus the ripple effect (~1.7%), are absolutely huge. I use those numbers because they're a matter of fact, and if one performs the simple deductions, it's easy to see how we're deeply in the hole, right now, and burning the furniture. A currency collapse is always more severe than a depression, and that's exactly what's on the table next.
I think it's really cool how you're smarter than everybody else have it all figured out. That's certainly more than I can say. I trust you've positioned and leveraged yourself accordingly.Quote from achilles28:
I explained this in-depth many times over the years, so I won't do again. Basically, the economy is running on debt. The deficit accounts for 10% of GDP and QE, another ~3%. Reputable economists peg the "knock-on" effect at around 1.7 - 1.8. Iow, for every dollar borrowed and spent into the economy, it generates ~1.8 dollars in economic activity (baker pays the miller who pays the farmer who pays the bank who pays their employees who buy bread). That means without the deficit and QE, the economy is more or less deficient by 22% GDP. In a deflationary collapse, the FIRE sector, which comprises roughly 25% of all economic activity, gets absolutely decimated. Real estate, banks, and insurers (who now underwrite all types of security and debt performance), get creamed. Under an inflationary collapse, which is most likely (because Banks own the FED who dictates policy), foreign investors dump treasuries, the Fed monetizes, and the dollar loses reserve status. This isn't some trivial event. The premium built into reserve status could be upwards of 30-40%. Plus a severe devaluation. Wages are sticky, prices aren't. US prices could easily double and wages remain stagnant. In that case, consumers buy only half as much and a Depression results, it just looks different. Same thing happened in Zimbabwe and Weimar, although to a much greater extent. Qualitatively, it's different (inflation versus deflation). Quantitatively, it's the same (a massive depression). As for your topical refutation, it means jacksquat. There is nothing complicated or esoteric about my analysis. I used a simple GDP formula + the knock-on effect + some facts about the economy. That's it. It's easy to tell who the pretenders are when it comes to economics, because they don't recognize a simple GDP formula when they see one. Econ 101. It's ironic that all "numerical projections" are bullshit, yet you put your faith in Keynesian economists, who use numerical projections. They just get it wrong most of the time (not that you care). Anyway, you guys can say whatever you want. Our future is being played out in the European periphery right now, and theirs was played out in Iceland. The Kroner depreciated what? 50%? in the span of a couple months and their economy contracted more than 20%. Mind you, Iceland could pass for an agrarian fishing village. What I mean by that, the fallout of 300K getting the gears is easier to ride out than a deeply fragmented nation of 300 million, with less than 2% of the population agrarian, and over half on some type of Government welfare. It's jokes. And you post a youtube clip of some random beer commercial, as if that proves anything? Anyway, this is why the Country is going to shit. Because "smart guys" refuse to learn the basics and put all their faith in highly educated idiots who routinely get it wrong.
I'm doing okay thanks for your concern
It's not that complicated. It's actually quite simple if you know some basic economics, which makes it evident, you don't. But don't listen to me. Listen to the people who got it right over the years, not wrong. The prescient forecast a dollar collapse in 5 years, unless the current rate of spending isn't dramatically cut. Greenspan, Bernacke, Krugman, these are the losers who didn't see the housing crash coming after it had turned south.
Quote from Lucrum:
Really?
You just described yourself.
ahah