The myth of volume as a leading indicator of price direction...

[volpri]

Before we can interpret volume we have to ask ourselves.

1) what does volume represent?

2) who creates volume?

3) why did they create it?

4) in what context was it created?

Exploring those question may help one see and even come to sound conclusions as to why there are often discrepancies between volume and price and why they sometimes appear to be perfectly in sync.

Or it may just confuse you even more! ROFLMAO

 

[NazSherpa]

Volume is highly correlated to range. That's not an opinion but a mathematical fact. If you're trading a strategy that is relying on continuation - knowing whether or not there is heavy volume on a relative basis might just be useful information, in my opinion.

 

[SunTrader]

Volume is highly correlated to range. That's not an opinion but a mathematical fact...

Nonsense.

 

[NazSherpa]

You'll have to explain to me how a serial correlation that anybody can easily calculate is nonsense. It's math? Your reply on the other hand, is an ignorant opinion.

 

[SunTrader]

You'll have to explain to me how a serial correlation that anybody can easily calculate is nonsense. It's math? Your reply on the other hand, is an ignorant opinion.

You show me examples proving your point and I'll show an equal amount disproving it.

Ever watch a chart around important news releases for instance? Huh?

 

[NazSherpa]

Watch a chart? Vince, I hate to break it to you but if you read my post- I'm referring to a mathematical relationship between two variables. I don't need to provide any examples of anything. This is readily availible for anybody to calculate. If you don't have excel you can do it in googlesheets for free. Take the ES, for example, put the range in one column and volume in a another calculate a correlation coefficient between the two. It is a statistically significant figure. Try it. No number of posts saying 'non-sense' or 'show me examples' will change math.
Don't take my word for it - calculate it yourself. I'm a professional trader. So yes, I may have watched market action following news releases a time or two.

 

[userque]

Volume is highly correlated to range. That's not an opinion but a mathematical fact. If you're trading a strategy that is relying on continuation - knowing whether or not there is heavy volume on a relative basis might just be useful information, in my opinion.

Using daily's as an example:

At the end of the day, suppose volume was heavy, and it correlated with today's range, as you said it would. How would that help a trader trade tomorrow, since volume is not really known until the close of a bar?

I'm asking: are you suggesting that the correlation can be predictive? Are you saying that the correlation is not just for the current day, but also for future days?

Thanks.

 

[userque]

Ran the numbers on daily SPY since 1993.

Excel Correlation is 0.417348567

Not very correlated, imo.

 

[NazSherpa]

That's a fair question. Volume is known in real time and if you start digging around with these stats you may come to recognize that volume in the first bit of the morning session is a good indicator of how the day will unfold in terms of range. Again, if you're looking for continuation or something to that effect and the volume is not there this might be good to know.

 

[NazSherpa]

Ran the numbers on daily SPY since 1993.

Excel Correlation is 0.417348567

Not very correlated, imo.

NQ has a correlation coefficient of .63 - that's considered a high degree over 20 years. .41 would be moderate, right?