The myth of letting your winners run

[murray t turtle]

And then there are those who claim "You don't have a loss until you sell"

%%
Partly true but mostly false. I was showing a daily loss on my daily last part of SPYG &TQQQ.
Sold both. That works well with investments
Good thing I help market makers /specialists when I sell;i like partial profits more than mostly false statements.

 

[StatGuy]

I tend to struggle greatly with this at times. I have bought and sold CL multiple times several weeks ago and made about 600 dollars profit when I could have made 10-15 thousand if I just held it. There was of course the non-significant probability of it crashing and burning too, so I was more cautious and just dumped it when I had a small profit.

Today's mistake was taking too large a position (shorted YM when I should have been trading MYM) and I couldn't stand the heat when it moved against me a little bit. Overall my direction call was correct. Instead of losing $500+ I should have made at least $1,000. I would have been better off with a put on ES or SPX. This is so frustrating at times.

 

[Tradex]

you need a few big wins in a trend following system. you need to avoid those few big losses in a mean reversion system

A Forex trader I know lost more than $330,000 with a mean reversion system on the EUR/AUD.

Betting against the trend and hoping the price will return to "normal level" is a very dangerous strategy.

 

[murray t turtle]

I tend to struggle greatly with this at times. I have bought and sold CL multiple times several weeks ago and made about 600 dollars profit when I could have made 10-15 thousand if I just held it. There was of course the non-significant probability of it crashing and burning too, so I was more cautious and just dumped it when I had a small profit.

Today's mistake was taking too large a position (shorted YM when I should have been trading MYM) and I couldn't stand the heat when it moved against me a little bit. Overall my direction call was correct. Instead of losing $500+ I should have made at least $1,000. I would have been better off with a put on ES or SPX. This is so frustrating at times.

%%
ONE game changer/past 52 weeks;
low or no commissions/tends not pay dishonoring your stops.
SPY/UPRO tends to uptrend long term/medium trend term/but my last upro trade accidently turned a profit into a loss/trade.
UPRO does not usually gap/cr*p down like it did, especially with SPY above 200dma...………………………………………………………………………………………………………...
Ive made much more with SPXL/UPRO/SPY/SPYG than I ever did with es;
+ dividends.

 

[easymon1]

 

[Tradex]

Nah, even support/resistance lines can seriously limit your profits.
In general, exits based on simple moving averages are better.

 

[easymon1]

In general,

i like ma too
but gaps can play hell on ma in the context of what LamboFan trades.
she's got em on there tho.
might be worth a few minutes to look at the context.
other traders as well as gap traders and premarket traders of stocks, crazy ba88888s that they are, lol, might benefit from what is on the vid.

What timeframes do you like to trade?
while they vary for sure, what hold times for trades you like in general?

 

[easymon1]

exits based on simple moving averages

mr Tradex, and the best thing about ma's is you don't have to draw them, they draw themselves to provide good backstops for initiating trades as well as targets for other trades.
anything in this vid you'd recommend?
any youtubers trading ma's that you like?
Money Making Moving Averages

 

[Tradex]

the best thing about ma's is you don't have to draw them, they draw themselves to provide good backstops for initiating trades as well as targets for other trades

Exactly, unlike those subjective support/resistance lines, moving averages (as an exit tool) are easy to use and spot on the charts.

The trick is to find their optimal value for the particular trading system we are using, and this requires some serious backtesting.

 

[Sprout]

Your post reminds me of a certain Jack Hershey, another Elite Trader who used complicated, complex and almost impossible to understand trading concepts.

Thanks for your reply but I learned decades ago that trading does NOT have to be complicated at all, as a trader can earn a very comfortable living with extremely simple chart patterns and indicators.

For instance the famous Turtles made an absolute killing in the Futures market ($100 millions) simply by buying 20-day highs and shorting 20-day lows.

I mean, how simple can it get?

Yes, trading is very simple, just a couple of mouse clicks to be in any market and continually be on the right side of it.

Your post reminds me of the $10k hammer tap story.

Master’s of any domain make it look simple.

Hershey I heard passed away. I think Sprout and Gaussian may be students of his?

One thing about Hershey I never saw him try to charge anything, or sell a course. I did look at some of his ideas but they just didn’t fit, for myself anyway.

Yes, you are correct. I’m avid advocate of his methods. Unfortunately, he is no longer with us.

From the outside, yes some of his concepts are difficult to logically reason through. However, the spectrum of concepts are integrated. A sublime simplicity arises once someone does the work to understand via building their mind.

One can prove to themselves the validity of his perspective via the various drills he designed - all in the archives. He was trained as an engineer, his profession was trading and his ‘beingness’ was that of an teacher and educator.

The concept that initially attracted me to his work was his day-to-day demonstration of ‘paying it forward.’