The myth of letting your winners run

[Sprout]

Care to elaborate a little, your reply is rather vague and generic?

The market has a structure and operates via a sequence of events when decoupled from time.

The following 30m starts the day long from the carryover, reverses to short off it's high (when degapped) and reverses long on bar2 when sentiment changes at the doji.
This is the first trend segment of the day which is a Dominant traverse long.

Bar3 yields a point 3 which is the bar's HL. The trendline connecting bar2 and bar3 low begins to fan the Dominant traverse that began at bar1. This traverse is composed of two tapes.

Bar4 is the pt3 of this traverse at it's low and also a volatility expansion (VE) at it's High.

Bar5 accelerates the trend segment line and yields a pt2 of the larger channel that the Dominant traverse long formed. This bar's high is the failure-to-traverse (ftt) of the Dominant traverse so the next event in the sequence of this forming channel is a non-Dominant traverse to the channel's pt3.

Bar9 is the non-Dominant traverse's ftt.

Bar10 is a return to Dominance for the last trend segment that will complete this channel.

Bar13's high is the FTT of this larger channel. As such it is the new pt1 of the next trend segment that is building.


Each pair of bars has a name. There are 10 distinct pairings.

Each volume histogram bar has a name. There are 11 elements.

Price is a derivative of volume.


All this is observable.

One can learn to 'see' the market but it requires diligent deductive work in the form of drills.

 

[Sprout]

This is an example of degapping RTH and excluding overnight. Even though the market is more-or-less continuous, the difference in volume between the overnight and the day session requires the market information to be filtered to compare like-to-like. Although intellectually challenging, doing it this way creates more clarity.

 

[birdman]

When averaging down it is imperative to do it in the right context larger and immediate and to ALWAYS have a spot you will dump it when wrong no questions asked.

Volpri - congratulations on your success. I find your comments both fascinating and educational. Let me ask ... since you work a 5 minute time frame / 5 minute chart ... what do you think of the possibilities of running a second screen with a faster 1 minute chart ... or better yet a 10 second chart, and thereby maybe achieve better entries and lessen the need to average down? What have you found in that regard?

P.S. I like your gardening. Very cool

 

[Tradex]

and thereby maybe achieve better entries

The idea of using smaller time frames for better entries is not new. However, these small time frames will also produce many false signals as well, unfortunately, especially in choppy markets.

But when they do work the risk-reward ratio increases dramatically, as the stop is now much smaller and the trader is initiating his position at a better price.

So yes, excellent point.

 

[Tradex]

non-Dominant traverse

Your post reminds me of a certain Jack Hershey, another Elite Trader who used complicated, complex and almost impossible to understand trading concepts.

Thanks for your reply but I learned decades ago that trading does NOT have to be complicated at all, as a trader can earn a very comfortable living with extremely simple chart patterns and indicators.

For instance the famous Turtles made an absolute killing in the Futures market ($100 millions) simply by buying 20-day highs and shorting 20-day lows.

I mean, how simple can it get?

 

[volpri]

Volpri - congratulations on your success. I find your comments both fascinating and educational. Let me ask ... since you work a 5 minute time frame / 5 minute chart ... what do you think of the possibilities of running a second screen with a faster 1 minute chart ... or better yet a 10 second chart, and thereby maybe achieve better entries and lessen the need to average down? What have you found in that regard?

P.S. I like your gardening. Very cool

Thanks!

PA is price action regardless of the TF. I have on occasion fine tuned some 5 minute entries on a 1 minute chart and I suppose a younger, quicker person, could probably do it much better than I. But the PA is just too fast for me to trade off a one min chart. I have to “see” Patterns, “see“ setups, “run” TE calculations to see probabilities, and by the time I do all that the 1 min trade is generally over.

But to fine tune 5 minute entries ok if the market is moving slow. I can see the entry and set up on a 5 minute evolving then follow it on a 1 minute to make my entries. Since I am a manual discretionary trader the market has to be moving slow to do this. But I have done it. But all the calculations would, at least for myself, have to be done via the 5 min chart. Likewise, I can trade a 15 minute chart and fine tune entries on a 5 minute.

I am working the garden today. Just took a break and saw your post.

As far as averaging down I suspect I would be doing it on the 1 minute chart too, instinctively. It seems to just be a part of my trading DNA.

 

[volpri]

Your post reminds me of a certain Jack Hershey, another Elite Trader who used complicated, complex and almost impossible to understand trading concepts.

Thanks for your reply but I learned decades ago that trading does NOT have to be complicated at all, as a trader can earn a very comfortable living with extremely simple chart patterns and indicators.

For instance the famous Turtles made an absolute killing in the Futures market ($100 millions) simply by buying 20-day highs and shorting 20-day lows.

I mean, how simple can it get?

If trading was simple we would all be very rich. Where are the turtle traders now? How many times did the belly up?

It would be nice Eastwood if you would take some trades Like a month's worth on “simple” and post your charts showing the entries and exits.

Even Doc Holidays draw while fast was complicated.

 

[volpri]

Your post reminds me of a certain Jack Hershey, another Elite Trader who used complicated, complex and almost impossible to understand trading concepts.

Thanks for your reply but I learned decades ago that trading does NOT have to be complicated at all, as a trader can earn a very comfortable living with extremely simple chart patterns and indicators.

For instance the famous Turtles made an absolute killing in the Futures market ($100 millions) simply by buying 20-day highs and shorting 20-day lows.

I mean, how simple can it get?

Hershey I heard passed away. I think Sprout and Gaussian may be students of his?

One thing about Hershey I never saw him try to charge anything, or sell a course. I did look at some of his ideas but they just didn’t fit, for myself anyway.

 

[Tradex]

Hershey I heard passed away

Sorry to hear that, may he rest in peace.

The entertainment value of his posts was priceless, in any case.

Was he really a trading genius?
Did he truly discover some hidden and highly profitable pattern in the market?

I guess this will always remain a mystery.

 

[Tradex]

It would be nice Eastwood if you would take some trades

Alright alright, if you insist, I will start my little trading Journal next week, with specific buy/sell entry price, stop and all.

There, happy now, Mister "I make good money scalping the market every day while planting zucchinis in my garden" ?
Have a pleasant weekend my friend.

PS: You truly trade from Honduras?