The myth of letting your winners run

How do you do it?

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  • Poll closed .
Flowfollower said:
No I can't. But does one have to be perfect as the example mentioned in the first post operates on a 50% win rate?

There would be no need for perfection. A mechanical system that takes profit at a predefined short term target eg 2R, would be able to be executed with a buy stops, stop loss and profit target order all entered together before the trade has executed.

Even slippage can be negated with a buy stop. Of course the stop loss may prove a different matter from time to time.
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At this point I'm not sure what we're discussing.

A 50 % win rate system targeting 2R have a positive expectancy at 0.5R pre-comission. Nothing wrong with that if you can sustain that performance, but not very robust.

A fixed mechanical system will not generate more profits than an adaptive system which aims to capture the bulk of each major move, though. But a fixed mechanical system is probably easier to create for the average retail trader. Probably easier to go for 1.5R and a higher win rate.
 
Eastwood another cowboy bites the dust from Doc Holiday's blazing gun. While a trend trader is twiddling his thumbs a scalper is dropping them cowboys. Long averaged down scalp. Context ripe.

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And another cowboy wishes he had stayed home Eastwood. 2 point long scalp. A bird in the hand is worth 20 in the bush. See lock them profits in while market gives them to you. If it runs still lock em in over and over again as it runs. Compound on PB's. Hurst talks about the matter. But the gurus and pundits lay down the rule and most listen. And most lose shaking their heads in bewilderment.

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Interesting approach, volpri. I'm sure it can work well if one is disciplined and know what one is doing.

Have you ever had any bad hits as a consequence of your averaging down?
 
Laissez Faire said:
Interesting approach, volpri. I'm sure it can work well if one is disciplined and know what one is doing.

Have you ever had any bad hits as a consequence of your averaging down?
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The context is ripe here for long scalps. At this moment it is still a bullish market. Gap up open etc....So odds favor long scalps. If this sideways but bullish PA continues to 20 bars or more then I will trade both sides long and short. If it BO's topside I will scalp buying PB's and exiting swing highs and repeating over and over. If it breaks south I will use other tactics too. Will answer your question shortly. Gotta check and see what the market is doing right now. Maybe another entry?
 
Laissez Faire said:
Interesting approach, volpri. I'm sure it can work well if one is disciplined and know what one is doing.

Have you ever had any bad hits as a consequence of your averaging down?
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Of course I have gotten it wrong and taken hits but losses are generally easy to get back. Double up and reverse. Muy pronto back in the money. My goal is to go with the market. The money will take care of itself. If I am not in groove or in tune with the market I gotta change. Not the market.

When averaging down it is imperative to do it in the right context larger and immediate and to ALWAYS have a spot you will dump it when wrong no questions asked.

In this case today larger context = bullish as gap up opening and it ain't filling much. Immediate context=sideways to up. Ripe for long scalps until that changes.
 
At this moment we are 15 bars in from the open. Did I cut my profits short on that second long straight scalp. Yes I did! But see I locked that profit in. Now I just wait for another opportunity to drop another cowboy. LOL

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At this point just waiting for another PB. It is looking more and more like it is going to be a (SPBL small pullback bull trend) from the open. I'm just waiting to start averaging down on PB's towards the 20 EMA. There could be a deep PB so may have to add and add.

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