The mother of all shorts is building: 30-year T-Bond

Quote from riskfreetrading:

RFT covered this in an article he published on his blog (article will be extended as soon as top is timed)

Excerpts from article are:

"
There are multiple ways you can play a top in bond market:

1. Shorting TLT EFT.
2. Buying an inverse bond ETF. TBT eft is such a fund. It appreciates when prices of bonds fall (which is equivalent to saying the bond yield's rising).
3. Buying puts on TLT (but we looked at the options, and the bid-ask spread are wide, despite a good open interest. Market markets play games sometimes till rules change and force them to have a smaller minimum spread such as what happened in the penny pilot program for options on some equities such as QQQQ, and other stocks.
4. Selling calls on TLT.

"

5. Spreads (with short volatility).

Full text (and text to be added as soon as news of top breaks out are at):
http://financialtraders.blogspot.com/2008/12/bond-market-top-december-2008-tlt-top.html
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As promised news of top broke out on RFT's blog.
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

I agree with those saying that it is soon and going to be massive! RFT is following it on his radar. The top is imminent.

Start the day/hours countdown folks, it could start tomorrow Friday! RFT plans to share the news with his blog readers as soon as the top gives him a call assuming he will not be busy in the battlefields. This should shake everything (currencies, stocks, commodities). It will be like a bunker buster.
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Re-read what RFT wrote last night! Prophetic. And it was like a bunker buster!


RFT (the person who nails tops and bottom without fail has done it again)
:cool:
 
The 30 year bond is the lowest on record going back to 1977...



My choice of pick to play this bubble...



TBT

Trading around $44 would wait for the dip below $40.00 and begin to buy.
 
I don't like the liquidity on TBT. The tape is way too slow there most of the time. Might be right about the long trade, but if you need to smack a bid, there's no depth there. Also, I wouldn't discount completely the risk in the ETF instrument itself.
 
Quote from weewilly:

I don't like the liquidity on TBT. The tape is way too slow there most of the time. Might be right about the long trade, but if you need to smack a bid, there's no depth there. Also, I wouldn't discount completely the risk in the ETF instrument itself.
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you are very savvy to consider the risk of instrument itself.

there is a way to address that particular point, which has other advantages (PS: Shortie: You know what I am alluding to. Pls. do not disclose as per our agreement in PM exchanges).
 
Quote from bond tr4der:It's only a matter of time before it collapses and yields 10% or something.
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Yup just a matter of time. JGB rates were 9% in 1989 and where are they now, 19 years later? LOL
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

Re-read what RFT wrote last night! Prophetic. And it was like a bunker buster!


RFT (the person who nails tops and bottom without fail has done it again)
:cool:
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R U guys still bullish on bonds? As for RFT, you know his point of view. Short as of Friday december 05 at about 1PM (read post on his financialtraders blog, a copy of which has been included in previous page).

Bears and bulls: please make/revisit your case in light of today's market actions on bonds?
 
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