its not a double top its just consolidation between two major levels
1500-1600 and 700-800
1500-1600 and 700-800
The MOTHER of all DOUBLE TOPS confirmed 2/27/09
- Thread starter ess1096
- Start date
Why do/did you guys think this double top matters?
Chances are the double top fails. They do that.
The only way to know if it will fail is if you already know if the economic crisis is over (assuming that will end the bear market), and the knowledge of any pattern within that is useless information.
I would put money on it failing completely (and no it hasn't failed yet, double tops nearly always have a pullback).
TA doesn't matter when the force behind the market is changing (in this case, economic conditions).
Do people really not know this?!
Chances are the double top fails. They do that.
The only way to know if it will fail is if you already know if the economic crisis is over (assuming that will end the bear market), and the knowledge of any pattern within that is useless information.
I would put money on it failing completely (and no it hasn't failed yet, double tops nearly always have a pullback).
TA doesn't matter when the force behind the market is changing (in this case, economic conditions).
Do people really not know this?!
This has been one hell of a bear market rally. With a little government help it has far surpassed my expectations. However it seems to be coming to an end.
I opened a short NQ position on Wednesday and opened a short ES position pre-market Friday. My last short position (in June) was short lived but profitable. We shall see how this one works out.
I have prepared and posted a chart instead of trying to explain what I see in text. Rather than post updates here on ET, which has become a Troll-fest, I set up a twitter account to post updates to at twitter.com/tradetheindex if you want to follow along
I don't sell or solicit anything and I am a complete newbie at twitter so bear with me. I'll just be posting random updates to what I see on the S&P 500 chart. twitter name tradetheindex
Good luck.
PS: If you are new to this old thread, it has not been about a double top formation for a while now so ignore the title.
Quote from ess1096:
When the S&P started rolling over in October 2007 I considered, but then laughed at the possibility of a double top of such huge proportions. Now with the February monthly bar closing today it has confirmed itself. And what's worse is it closed on it's lows (daily, weekly & monthly).
Next support should come from the 605-681 range. If it trades through that, and it certainly could, it won't find support until 482, the 1994 tops.
Of course this is long term analysis for position trading. Daytrading and swing trading will be business as usual.
Could be channeling, trendlines are not glass ceilings or floors.
Although this is a very old post, it's important now as we look back. It did indeed look like the mother of all double tops at the time, but actually was the simply the bottom of the range. What is very important to remember is that the longer time frame you look at, the more general support and resistance levels become. To illustrate the point, if you look back on the neck line, certainly it's not like anyone that bought in 03 has rode the market since then with a stop below those lows. On a longer term time frame, support is a larger area where you can expect buying interest to arise, but not an exact level.