The 'Mother of All Advice' list!

comagnum said:
rin4net said:
I disagree with Xela. There are setups that have 80-100% probability of a winning trade

So you think you have 80-100% 'probabilities'? Shouldn't take that long to become on of the richest people alive. The best performing pros out there win about 50% of their trades - sure, some are closer to 60% for a while but they all eventually regress to the mean.


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You obviously haven't thought this through. Go back and read the 2nd post on this thread by @learner2007. The people you mentioned manage 100s of millions of dollars. It is common sense that their return will be much less than a retail trader with a relatively small account.
And no I can't be the richest person in the world for the simple reason that as my size grows I will become greatly restricted due to liquidity etc just like the people you mentioned above.
If a retail trader can't beat the people mentioned above with a small account they are obviously doing something wrong.
It is like a motorcycle can go through traffic way quicker than an 18 wheeler because of it's relatively small size. If he cannot then he is not a good motorcyclist :-)
 
The people you mentioned manage 100s of millions of dollars. It is common sense that their return will be much less than a retail trader with a relatively small account.

If you want to drink the fantasy kool aid that less capital in trading is an advantage that's your choice. Big traders/big funds can throttle the market, they create their own positive momentum to lift or drop prices of accumulated positions, they have access to lucrative offerings, & their cost of trading is not an issue - with retail active traders the cost of trading is everything. Retails track record has a survivor rate on par with surviving an airplane crash at 30,000 feet - retail is the fish food in the pond. And yea - I am retail myself. There are a handful of independent traders that outperform the big fish, the majority of them are well capitalized and have many years of experience.

 
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rin4et said:
There are setups that have 80-100% probability of a winning trade.
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Hmph... man if you know when that is... fuck it... just wait for those trades. Why dick around with this little stuff. Even if it takes sitting on your hands for days waiting... you'll have more money than you'll ever want.

If you love the game so much that you have to be in... just play with small positions while you wait for that big kill. Thats kinda what I do. My problem is the big kill sometimes doesn't always seem to work out to that 80% probability. :D
 
comagnum said:
The people you mentioned manage 100s of millions of dollars. It is common sense that their return will be much less than a retail trader with a relatively small account.

If you want to drink the fantasy kool aid that less capital in trading is an advantage that's your choice. Big traders/big funds can throttle the market, they create their own positive momentum to lift or drop prices of accumulated positions, they have access to lucrative offerings, & their cost of trading is not an issue - with retail active traders the cost of trading is everything. Retails track record has a survivor rate on par with surviving an airplane crash at 30,000 feet - retail is the fish food in the pond. And yea - I am retail myself. There are a handful of independent traders that outperform the big fish, the majority of them are well capitalized and have many years of experience.

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The high failure rate is because there is no entrance or qualifying exam to pursue trading. If there was no qualifying exam to be a brain surgeon or fly an airplane most would fail as well. Trading is pretty simple for the retail trader if he is willing to use his intellect and put in the time and effort to learn which most people don't. I am talking about making 300 to 500k a year not being the richest person in the world.
It is easy to exploit inefficiencies in the market as a small trader. The instruments traded by the people mentioned above are highly efficient and therefore have a much lower return.
Anyway I won't highjack this thread anymore.
 
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The price movement will tell you what to do 1% of the time. But, more importantly,
99% of the time it will tell you what NOT to do!!
 
Don't blindly follow other people's systems, but make it your own. When it's your own, you know it in and out, you can fix it yourself and don't need to rely on anyone else. Be aware that whatever someone else tells you, is incomplete for you.
 
learner2007 said:
Why are retail traders always so concerned and interested in the results of hedge funds,
institutional investors, market makers, Buffett, hft, quants, other retail traders etc.?
They are playing a different game on the same board/chart, under different conditions, with different restrictions and rules. Comparing oneself to anyone else is really irrelevant, and it will not identify your position on the trader's/investor's totem pole. Trading to the best of your ability is all that counts.This is a DIY business.
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Because retail traders are interest in quick cash, get rich quick, zero to hero and think it's simple. It's inherent in the reason WHY they are trying retail trading in the first place.
I think people who trade retail think- I'm smart, I can work hard. I can do that simple shit. That's their philosophy on life. No one wakes you up one day and tells you that that is horse shit. That success is hard graft, try, fail, try, fail, try again, some success, followed by abject failure.
He people who make it, never never fail to get back up and learn from each fall.
So people who get into retail- part of the 95% fails, do it, hit the wall and then walk.
But they are always he fan boys of Billlions, bobby axelrod etc. who wouldn't be a fan if you like money.
But they never realize the acute dedication and learning that goes into that level of consistent success
 
Simples said:
Don't blindly follow other people's systems, but make it your own. When it's your own, you know it in and out, you can fix it yourself and don't need to rely on anyone else. Be aware that whatever someone else tells you, is incomplete for you.
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Man, following other people's system is like going to the supermarket and essentially buy something every time you are hungry. Real traders know how to farm, hunt, Kill
 
1. Be around winning traders.

Try to develop personal relationships with winners.

2. Be aware of "self-intrest".

There are always hustlers looking to sell you worthless and even harmful things.
 
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