The grey matter between your ears.
The most important tools in your opinion
- Thread starter Nicolaskao
- Start date
+1
I would add that not a single tool works if used in the same manner all the time. You'll have to study where & when to follow their signals, where & when to fade their signals, of course ignore the rest of their signals.
Force yourself to work on thousands of datapoints (setups or trades) ... this is an easy-way to make it less likely to over-fit to past data (although, not impossible) .
My view of tooling is the traditional engineering definition.
Oraclewizard and endgame have spoken of trader rules; These are broadly accepted and used by a lot of people and organizations. These rules are an aid for those who are compensating for market unknowns.
kut2k2 mentions powerful trader tools that are personal. All traders do have to be consciencious and disciplined.
I feel the opposite of dom993 with regard to tools. A tool is not a tool if it does not work all of the time. The test of a viable tool is that it is always at work.
I have been using TA tools for about 56 years. As a summer student, I always contributed to Iron Age since my desk was located next to the tooland die makers. Responding to Iron Age puzzles was a fun type of tool creation.
In 1957, the first trading extension of myself that I used was pencilling in P, V charts from the last two pages of the SWJ. I had to ink up a vellum of a master chart to begin this. WS I monitored and analyzed charts. I found one pattern for making money in stocks. Detecting the ends of trends was a powerful geometric tool. I detected the ends of short trends to know I knew a long trend was upcoming.
In the position trading of stocks there was a sequence of events; it was depicted by scoring the three most important variables.A long commences when the score went from 0 to 7 and a short commenced when the score went from 3 to 2.
I became interested on futures in the 80's (DJX.X) So I used charts plus indicators which have signals. I used two line theory and became very aware of the order of events (OOE's)at that time.
Thus PVT and SCT were invented and were applications of an algorithm. The algorithm uses the theories of Keynes and Carnap. Dodd and Granville implied the algorithm and I just stated it as PEP. So the basis of my trading was to extract capital offered all the time by the markets. The manifestation of this as a tool was to do hold/reversal type trading.
The algorithm is two HS and the PM is velocity.
From 1957, I discovered to use chart bars. Carnap logic theory allowed me to convert the operation of the market into explicit mathematical statements of all the workings of OOE's in markets.
Thus, by set theory, I have all of the elements that occur in markets and each is defined mathematically; they are:
1. price has 10 cases,
2. volume has 11 cases.
From the sequencing of the OOE's, there are 35 ends of trends which I call End Effects (EE) Comingled with these, there are the three types of turns which occur between legs.
In the 50's, my employer (IBM) provided training in theoretical physics. Since family members (dad and bro) were into nuke warfare, I was familiar with the "failsafe" aspect of their setting off bombs as experiments (Van Allen belts and underground)
So I included a provision in monitorng and analyzing, a failsafe set of tools: the BO of the rtl with T1 and the bookmark reversal.
The most important tool I have and use is the OOE's. By keeping track of the turns in the trading fractal it is possible to know the end of a trend segment is coming up BEFORE it happens. (See Modrian table) The Modrian table is organized by the four types of trends. As seen on the attachment of yesterday's ES, you can tab the profit segments by doing reversals from each c turn to the next c turn.
Oraclewizard and endgame have spoken of trader rules; These are broadly accepted and used by a lot of people and organizations. These rules are an aid for those who are compensating for market unknowns.
kut2k2 mentions powerful trader tools that are personal. All traders do have to be consciencious and disciplined.
I feel the opposite of dom993 with regard to tools. A tool is not a tool if it does not work all of the time. The test of a viable tool is that it is always at work.
I have been using TA tools for about 56 years. As a summer student, I always contributed to Iron Age since my desk was located next to the tooland die makers. Responding to Iron Age puzzles was a fun type of tool creation.
In 1957, the first trading extension of myself that I used was pencilling in P, V charts from the last two pages of the SWJ. I had to ink up a vellum of a master chart to begin this. WS I monitored and analyzed charts. I found one pattern for making money in stocks. Detecting the ends of trends was a powerful geometric tool. I detected the ends of short trends to know I knew a long trend was upcoming.
In the position trading of stocks there was a sequence of events; it was depicted by scoring the three most important variables.A long commences when the score went from 0 to 7 and a short commenced when the score went from 3 to 2.
I became interested on futures in the 80's (DJX.X) So I used charts plus indicators which have signals. I used two line theory and became very aware of the order of events (OOE's)at that time.
Thus PVT and SCT were invented and were applications of an algorithm. The algorithm uses the theories of Keynes and Carnap. Dodd and Granville implied the algorithm and I just stated it as PEP. So the basis of my trading was to extract capital offered all the time by the markets. The manifestation of this as a tool was to do hold/reversal type trading.
The algorithm is two HS and the PM is velocity.
From 1957, I discovered to use chart bars. Carnap logic theory allowed me to convert the operation of the market into explicit mathematical statements of all the workings of OOE's in markets.
Thus, by set theory, I have all of the elements that occur in markets and each is defined mathematically; they are:
1. price has 10 cases,
2. volume has 11 cases.
From the sequencing of the OOE's, there are 35 ends of trends which I call End Effects (EE) Comingled with these, there are the three types of turns which occur between legs.
In the 50's, my employer (IBM) provided training in theoretical physics. Since family members (dad and bro) were into nuke warfare, I was familiar with the "failsafe" aspect of their setting off bombs as experiments (Van Allen belts and underground)
So I included a provision in monitorng and analyzing, a failsafe set of tools: the BO of the rtl with T1 and the bookmark reversal.
The most important tool I have and use is the OOE's. By keeping track of the turns in the trading fractal it is possible to know the end of a trend segment is coming up BEFORE it happens. (See Modrian table) The Modrian table is organized by the four types of trends. As seen on the attachment of yesterday's ES, you can tab the profit segments by doing reversals from each c turn to the next c turn.
same tool and it comes from settings. As Nodoji suggests, "context" is a requirement for a measurement.
End Effects are a consequence of monitoring and analyzing bar by bar the OOE on the independent variable.
The primary and secondary trend (pattern development over events) monitoring lead me to see and understand the specific EE's that can occur. I made tables of the math expressions.
Because I am an EE (Electrical Engineer) my viewpoint of the independent variable was that of boundaries. Boundaries were expressed as simply as upper and lower limits. (See Braithwaite)
For me this meant that the differentiator was above or below or within the band. I think of establishing a band as a context. Then I see the bar form. It can BreakOut(BO) of the band or remain in the band on the n+1 bar after the band is formed as a context. So I lable the BO's as HV or LV. (high or low)
Since the geometric limits of price are well understood, I felt going to the independent variable was logical. The independent variable restarts on the axis for each bar. This eliminates some math problems immediately.
Another way to speak of this in my trading, is to let an observer watch me and then have him guide me to tell him what my mind is unconsciously thinking. The neurological context is "going from the implicit to the explicit". This process of revelation is difficult to do without a person of intellect to aid in the documentation. Doing it solo did work and it is a lonely process.
When you look at the posted tables of these 35 unique EE's you see the bands and the Boolean basis mathematically. You also get to see and understand that they are all there.
The reason for being able to have the "manufacturing plant" is that the "pieces" on the asembly lines have granularity. There is no piping of fluids or gases. Your analogy is well taken and it is an example of you helping me to become more explicit. Thank you very much.
Also, thanks for your questions.
=========================
Those are quite help-ful.200 day moving average, which can help discern a bull or bear market and all data, with monthly charts can help.
Wisdom is profitable to direct.
Sorry to disappoint you: You need only one. Took me only 7 years to come up with.
Price, volume and volatility.
charts form v-charts.com and scanning tool from mv:
http://www.marketvolume.com/stockstradingsystems/
charts form v-charts.com and scanning tool from mv:
http://www.marketvolume.com/stockstradingsystems/
Volume, 50 MA and 200 MA. I will sometimes use gap fills depending on the situation