The Modern Bear Market (If it is bear market, it is over)

Quote from shortie:

yesterday and today were torture for me but i held on. i am still underwater (mainly because of financials). i am holding a large long position going into the weekend. hopefully, it will work out eventually. it is hard for me to buy anything if we dip again. my account will probably survive if there is a nuclear strike over the weekend but barely.
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Sell some far away calls to bank them if there is a retreat, and use the proceeds to build cash base.

PS: Did you notice the almost total silence on this thread? The reason seems to be that the majority got wounded and just went away to talk about something else, and simply stay away from the evils (people like you and I who are long)! They forgot that they were very noisy exactly at the bottom not only in price but in time as well! Check the history/time of posts on this thread!

They always wrote RFT off, but RFT always win and they never got RFT yet.

They had a small chance to miss RFT, and they did not miss it!

This thread reminds me the thread when I nailed the MCD top at $67, and they thought I was creazy, but I sold it against the trend, but it was the end. That baby fell to $51 where I covered it.
readers: go to the stocks section of the forum, and search for "shorting McDonald (MCD)" or something like that. You will find it.

When are you guys going to take RFT and his blog more seriously? till he starts to charge you big dollars, or close it and move on to something else more serious?

:p
 
How is it going folks?

You now have hindsight from last Friday. What you now see as hindsight is what RFT saw on Friday. Re-read this thread carefully, and look for comments on "V" and "Y", etc.

All bears who were sure of market going further down (at the bottom) must have now covered after too many unfulfilled prayers, and may have now started going long as they now feel bullish!

Today is Nov. 26, 2008.

As published on his blog in real-time, RFT's have been playing yesterday on both sides, and today he has shorted it with NDX at 1176 (with reduced size).

He plans to take profits at 1168 (to buy some turkeys), and may reshort it on a bounced back to the top area if it fails.

The thankful RFT is going to buy and release a Turkey to thank the mighty creator for his blessings!

:p
 
Things went as predicted above (even a bit better). And now:

From RFT's blog:

"2:34PM: with NDX at 1179, short NDX entry is complete. Thanks to the market for its cooperation. This may be the last opening trade for today. We may keep the current position till tomorrow, as it will earn premium since it is a short option position."
 
I havent read the thread but it was excellent timing on your part. The only issue is, without a proper context of your posting history, you may have been calling for a bottom for a long time and this one just happen to hit. I'm not suggesting this is the case necessarily, just that people have a tendency to pick tops and bottoms and tend to "bring back to life" threads in which bolster their case and dismiss or turn a blind cheek at the threads or posts that show disaster for their predictions.

Quote from riskfreetrading:

What do you now think about the future of the market in relation to the bottom of November 20-21, 2008 discussed in this thread?
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Quote from riskfreetrading:

What do you now think about the future of the market in relation to the bottom of November 20-21, 2008 discussed in this thread?
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Well, there's a good chance that the market will go up to some degree. I suspect there'll be more up days than down days for a while but the down days will be much bigger than the up days.

So, in summary the downside risk is still much greater than the upside. Only when the downside risk has subsided can you really say the market has bottomed.

BTW, i ascribe nothing other than luck to your "calling" of this bottom. Seeing as people have repeatedly been calling bottoms it's only natural for someone to appear to strike it lucky. I say "appear to" because it would be utmost folly to claim knowledge that the market has bottomed.
 
Pretty good call, although the first post is dated on the same day when we reached 750.

So my prediction beat this call by 6 days.... I called for 750ish bottom around Nov 14th... :)

But again, still a good call!

Quote from Pekelo on 11/14:

I don't know about the rest of the day but it really looks like we had a dragon failure on the daily chart too.
If so, height is 160, failure at 913 or so, that would take us down to 913-160= 750ish...

Probably takes 2-3 days to get there...
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It took 4, my bad.... :)


Quote from Pekelo on 11/17:

I think 780 is 50% from the all time high and 760 is 160 pts from the dragon failure, so a target between 760-780 for the low of the year and bounce sounds good....
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so pek,we bottomed ,got your dragon,then your camel,now back up to 918,bullish still on your bottom call,or another leg down and lower?
 
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