The mkts basically the same level before all the bank turmoil . Shorts stacked

Back slightly above, below or at SIVB bust doesn't say bull here we come. At least not yet.

$SPX up about +3.5% on the year currently with no real momentum. Pfft.
 
SammyJ said:
We should have fallen 15% min based on the bank chaos . Were basically flat . The bearishness astounding . Last 14 months . Russia / Ukraine, rates from 0-5%, oil hit $130 , earnings flat to down,Banks in chaos . And we can’t even give back 1 full year of a 12 year bull mkt ( S&P ended near 3800 yr end 2021 . The shorts are stacked. The Ken Calhoun indicator spot on . Sunday night he was licking his chops saying collapse .
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Bank Chaos is imaginary, existing only in the media's mind. The U.S. economy is extremely strong at the moment, with the lowest unemployment since the second world war. The Fed is trying to increase the cost of money to the point that people stop borrowing and the economy slows without slowing so much that a recession is created. I think this an impossibility. I don't see how they will succeed in reaching their 2% inflation target without near double digit interest rates and unemployment above 5%. If the Fed persists in raising the funds' rate they may eventually push the economy into a recession and then inflation will finally come down substantially.

One of the most effective ways to tackle inflation is of course to increase taxation. That should have already happened for those with adjusted gross of 400K or greater, but it is being fought by the GOP. If Biden's tax proposals were to be adopted, we would see much better progress toward taming inflation. The GOP controlled house will of course not let Biden's budget through unscathed. First to go will be increased taxation of the wealthy.

See also: https://fortune.com/2023/02/09/larry-summers-compares-inflation-to-infection-big-risks-recession/
 
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piezoe said:
Bank Chaos is imaginary, existing only in the media's mind. The U.S. economy is extremely strong at the moment, with the lowest unemployment since the second world war. The Fed is trying to increase the cost of money to the point that people stop borrowing and the economy slows without slowing so much that a recession is created. I think this an impossibility. I don't see how they will succeed in reaching their 2% inflation target without near double digit interest rates and unemployment above 5%. If the Fed persists in raising the funds' rate they may eventually push the economy into a recession and then inflation will finally come down substantially.

One of the most effective ways to tackle inflation is of course to increase taxation. That should have already happened for those with adjusted gross of 400K or greater, but it is being fought by the GOP. If Biden's tax proposals were to be adopted, we would see much better progress toward taming inflation. The GOP controlled house will of course not let Biden's budget through unscathed. First to go will be increased taxation of the wealthy.

See also: https://fortune.com/2023/02/09/larry-summers-compares-inflation-to-infection-big-risks-recession/
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Increase cost of money beyond ZIRP. Watcha think about this when you got the time?

AGE OF EASY MONEY

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/age-of-easy-money/
 
piezoe said:
Bank Chaos is imaginary, existing only in the media's mind. The U.S. economy is extremely strong at the moment, with the lowest unemployment since the second world war
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But Europe's banks are a freaking disaster waiting to happen. All the biggest banks in Europe have P/B ratios less than 1. Essentially no one believes their financial statements and the market thinks they are hiding losses
 
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Markets don't think chaos is imaginary - $BKX index:-
! BKX.png
 
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