The Million $$$ Quest 2006

[Ripley]

Weekly Thoughts:

I spend the whole of Friday, a non volatile, not much movement day.. looking for a potential breakout. That wasn't good. I should've recognized what kind of a day it was, and I should've adjusted accordingly.

In the markets, 70% of the moves happen in only 30% of the time. Thus, I should be waiting and watching rather than trading most of the time.

 

[Ripley]

Day 58

- $

I need to PRESERVE myself..

so that I can STAY in the game and be there...

when there is free money lying around.

I could do this by taking trades that I am supposed to take,

listenting to the market, & by not trying to make things happen.

I must keep myself in the game and make money EVERYDAY

 

[Ripley]

Day 59

- $

Successful trading must start early..

to start early, one must fix the clock and go to sleep early...

to wake up early, one must fix the alarm and move it up an hour.

I could do this all by STAYing on TOP of everything that I am supposed to do.

I am a Trader and I must think about Trading 24/7

I had CBOT data troubles early, but that is no excuse for making stupid trades.

I must keep myself in the game and make money EVERYDAY

 

[Ripley]

Thoughts after 2 straight losing days:

I should strive to put together 50 straight winning days.

Trade to string together a bunch of profitable trading days together.

To do that, I need get rid of that one big loss that gets me most days.

I must keep all the losses at my stop loss point.

I NEED to GET RID of that ONE BIG LOSS from my Trading Equation.

For that, I must wait patiently.. lurk... stalk

and only attack when there is blood on the street.

Trade to make money.

Trade to finish in the money everyday.

Do not take trades that are just not there.

 

[chopper77]

Don't you understand that 50 straight winning days is pretty much impossible?

The reason you are losing money isn't because you are "taking trades that aren't there."

 

[Ripley]

Quote from chopper77:

Don't you understand that 50 straight winning days is pretty much impossible?

Please don't say that chopper... don't you know anything is possible.. especially when it comes to trading.

I could do it. I could do it because I could be +positive points anytime during the day, and I could call it quits at that +points point. And do that 50 times a day and there you have it, straight 50 profitable days. That wouldn't really be trading.. and kind of cheating the market.

But, the days I am talking about is going all out with your profit target for the day, and I think I can do it.. if I could be a bit more selective with my trade selection. Lets see what will happen. You know... that is a new goal I must strive for. Putting together strings of winning days for as long as I can. But, the trouble is I need at least one winning day to start a streak.. lets just hope god will listen to my prayers tomorrow.

 

[chopper77]

Quote from Ripley:

Please don't say that chopper... don't you know anything is possible.. especially when it comes to trading.

Sure, it's POSSIBLE, but its likelihood of happening is about 0. If it did occur it would be due to luck. A lot of luck. You could win the lottery also. Same shot.

I could do it. I could do it because I could be +positive points anytime during the day, and I could call it quits at that +points point. And do that 50 times a day and there you have it, straight 50 profitable days. That wouldn't really be trading.. and kind of cheating the market.

Nope, that would be trading. It's still pretty much impossible. Think of it like this- you have a setup that works 75% of the time, all the time (yeah, this is really high for something you are trading all the time, but I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt. Yeah, you can't buy 100 shares at open every day and sell them for a penny more without a stop, that might work 50 straight days, but the 1 day it didn't of course would wipe you out.) So say 75% chance of your trade being a winner.

What's the chance that you'd have 50 straight winning days, taking 2 trades a day that have a 75% chance of profit?

The whole point is that day to day results don't matter at all. You have an edge, you push it. Your trading system's either profitable or it isn't. Now if you are + or - at the end of any given 7.5-hour stretch is up in the air, if you are a winner (depending on your system) most of the time you will be, sometimes you won't be.

Now sure, there is a lot of mental stuff and yeah, keeping composure and executing the plan is absolutely critical to success. But if you don't have a winning strategy, you can execute with the best of em but it's a foregone conclusion you'll end up broke.

OK, last questions:

What's the chance that you'd have 50 straight winning days, taking 2 trades a day that have a 75% chance of profit?

Are you financing this all on your credit card? (just curious if things have changed!)

 

[Ripley]

Day 60

Even

I must ELIMINATE that HUGE loss that takes it all away...

...get rid of it completely, forever and at ONCE...

I must understand that BE days are OK, and that getting stopped out is GOOD.

ALL my losses must be SMALL...

while my winners should be BIG, HUGE and HUMONGOUS...

I must TAKE profits. I cannot let +12,+14, +17 pts get away.

I must CAPITALIZE...

& stay above the tide at ALL times.

 

[Ripley]

Day 61

+$

I must always be along for the ride on those explosive moves.

No more HUGE losses,..

actually I should keep my losses even smaller than what my stops are supposed to be.

I must TAKE PROFITS at critical points...

BAG GOOD PROFITS, and do NOT hold too long for 1 or 2 ticks.

and stay away from bad trades and be a WINNER everyday

 

[whitster]

"while my winners should be BIG, HUGE and HUMONGOUS...

I must TAKE profits. I cannot let +12,+14, +17 pts get away."

you do realize these ideas are SOMEWHAT mutually inconsistent

iow, the more prone you are to take profits, the less prone your trades are to result in "big winners"

a good way to hedge in this regards is when you are trading multiple contracts, take profit on one contract at predefined exit point, then once that is reached, move your stop to entry (or entry +2 whatever) and let the next contract ride

many DOM's will do this automatically if setup this way - ninjatrader and bracket trader will