The Mental Game of Trading and Power vs Force

Opportunities for making $

1 min chart…$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
5 min chart…$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Day chart….$$$$$$
Weekly chart….$$$$
Monthly ..$
LOL HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAH

LOL HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH man this is a good laugh.

You are sooo right. I know the smaller timeframe I use, the faster I can get rich quickly.
 
No nothing to do with averaging down. Has to do with more trading opportunities. More opportunities to make $$$$. In short-term trading the tactic that renders more probability par excellence is scaling into a losing position or averaging down (less palatable term but actually just pure semantics.) And martingaling increases probability even more for a successful trade. The downside is if you act (by averaging down) to increase probability you also increase risks and decrease profit. But a trader that is well capitalized and trading smaller TF’s can still pull out way ahead because of the FOT (frequency of trading opportunities) and position size.

HFTs operate on the principle of FOT. Their very name suggests it. Coupled with position size and high probability …the ticket to making substancial profits very quickly.
Good Morning Volpri,

I miss you and your post.
 
Last edited:
The only reason for scaling into a losing position or even martingaling into a losing position is to put more probabilities back into ones favor that the trade will be a winning exit as opposed to a losing exit. It is counter intuitive. It is capitalizing on the markets tendency to probe all session long. Watch 1m and 5m charts. Markets all day long are probing back and forth on 1 min and 5m charts. These probes can last seconds or few minutes. This back and forth ….push and tug …is territory for averaging down and even martingaling if one can deal with more potential temporary risks.

In such a context the probability of a successful trade increases. The down side is less reward. There are three variables. Risk, reward, and probability. If one is adjusted if affects the others when structuring a trade. If I assume more risk by averaging down or using a martingale strategy I increase my probability of getting out in an overall winning trade, although I may lose on some contracts in the trade but win on the other contracts in the trade, however overall it is a winning trade. It is better to win even if the reward is smaller than to lose on a temporary probe against one’s position. Especially if one is a scalper.

I am speaking here in terms of very short-term trading like on 1m to 5m charts. The whole thing is generally is generally structured, traded, and done within seconds or minutes. Hear that, seconds or minutes!

All one is doing is putting a profitable exit closer on terms of movement in order to be profitable. Because of the constant probing in the markets this can be a reasonable strategy. IMO. The downside is less reward and a trader must be ready to dump any averaged down position quickly if the probe turns into a reversal.

Averaging down, aka as scaling into a losing position, and or using a martingale technique is done not to avoid a loss (although in effect it does that) but it is used to put probability in ones favor that a profitable exit is forthcoming, i.e. when scalping. I am not arguing for adding and adding and adding more and more and more to avoid a loss. In such a case a trader would be getting out of the probing phenomena of the markets and likely suffer larger losses. I am talking strictly about scalping 1m to 5m charts. That said the same thing can be done on larger time frames (as PA on all TF’s is basically the same) but larger TF’s would require more capitol and greater risks in monetary terms.

The things are above are my opinion I don’t advice anyone to do it. That is up to a trader to make his own mind up. However, I would say watch this back and forth tug and push on 5m and 1m charts if one is inclined to scalp trade. It generally manifests itself on overlapping bars. Observe how often this happens and try see how one could potentially profit from it.
Hello volpri,

Thank you for the post.

After taking a Breakout LONG ES trade on the 5 minute chart with 1 ES contract aiming for a 4 tick scalp of $50, I have now scaled in 10 ES contract and market is reversing (failed breakout) not hold the XX EMA and breaking below the breakout area.

My current unrealized profit for this trade is now -$10,000.

Questions please:

1. When do I exit the trade holding 10ES contract?
2. How will I recover this drawdown $10,000 by aiming at 4 ticks per trade 1 ES contract? I will need 200 wins in a row to recover this drawdown.
3. Do you believe a human with one brain, can get 200 wins in a row?

Thank you sir in advance for your post.
 
Not to mention that, employing this strategy, your position will be smallest when the market goes immediately in your favor (usually the best trades in my opinion), and largest when you eventually accept a loser.
Hello Frederick Foresight,

I will intelligently add to your post as well on the red

After the trader (a human being with bills to pay from his/her trading) take the largest loss holding all those contracts, he/she now have to do something harder than circumcising a mosquito,...., recover that big loss before bills are due on the first of the month.
 
Hello volpri,

Thank you for the post.

After taking a Breakout LONG ES trade on the 5 minute chart with 1 ES contract aiming for a 4 tick scalp of $50, I have now scaled in 10 ES contract and market is reversing (failed breakout) not hold the XX EMA and breaking below the breakout area.

My current unrealized profit for this trade is now -$10,000.

Questions please:

1. When do I exit the trade holding 10ES contract?
2. How will I recover this drawdown $10,000 by aiming at 4 ticks per trade 1 ES contract? I will need 200 wins in a row to recover this drawdown.
3. Do you believe a human with one brain, can get 200 wins in a row?

Thank you sir in advance for your post.
Show me the chart with your initial entries and scaling in. I have no idea why you decided to average down.
 
///

My current unrealized profit for this trade is now -$10,000.

Questions please:

1. When do I exit the trade holding 10ES contract?
2. How will I recover this drawdown $10,000 by aiming at 4 ticks per trade 1 ES contract? I will need 200 wins in a row to recover this drawdown.
3. Do you believe a human with one brain, can get 200 wins in a row?

Thank you sir in advance for your post.

You are in 10ES contracts and down only 10K? You must have a gigantor bankroll. Well, you could exit the trade when you are approaching a margin call based on the performance bond requirements. You could also "lock in the loss" by taking 10 ES on the next contract in opposite direction, so you have time to breathe.

Remember, man, most future contracts all move in the same direction across the medium term. ESPECIALLY equity futures. So being long one month and shorting another is a calendar spread. AND, you'll get a margin discount! Woohoo!
 
Last edited:
You are in 10ES contracts and down only 10K? You must have a gigantor bankroll. Well, you could exit the trade when you are approaching a margin call based on the performance bond requirements. You could also "lock in the loss" by taking 10 ES on the next contract in opposite direction, so you have time to breathe.

Remember, man, most future contracts all move in the same direction across the medium term. ESPECIALLY equity futures. So being long one month and shorting another is a calendar spread. AND, you'll get a margin discount! Woohoo!
Hello Overnight,

The point of my post was, there is not a human alive that can scalp +100 wins in a row, after taking a big loss of scaling in.

All that scaling trading sounds cute in theory, until you take that big loss and you can not recover.

Scaling in to losers sounds good, but as my grandmother use to say "Boy sit your black ass down with that bullshit, I see better than I hear"
 
Show me the chart with your initial entries and scaling in. I have no idea why you decided to average down.
Hello volpri,

I tried scaling in price action scalp trading for about 4 months, and I failed miserably and lost alot of real money doing it. I know you and Al Brooks like that style of trading, but it did not work well for me. I do not like how Al Brooks does all this talking/teaching and can not prove anything. He sell people dreams. I am not sure why you and Al Brooks do not trade live and show traders how you trade since you like scaling into losing trades so much. Makes no sense to me at all. I will never talk/teach about something and do not prove it to traders with real money. That does not seem fair to me.

I stated in my example, after holding XX contracts and you have to take that big loss, you will not be able to recover by scalp trading.

Averaging into losing trades is just a mental way to make trader feel good day to day, by winning. Eventually the big loss comes, and trader will give up cause they know they will never be able get that big loss back.

I need a $1,000,000 trading ES account to make it work. and $5 million in savings and all bills and debt paid

And I do not have a $6,000,000 trading account.

I will stick to setting my stop loss, and setting my profit target per trade.

I have much respect for @Overnight for keeping his live trading journal win or lose. Thank you.
 
Last edited:
Hello volpri,

I tried scaling in price action scalp trading for about 4 months, and I failed miserably and lost alot of real money doing it. I know you and Al Brooks like that style of trading, but it did not work well for me.

I stated in my example, after holding XX contracts and you have to take that big loss, you will not be able to recover by scalp tradin

Averaging into losing trades is just a mental way to make trader feel good day to day, by winning. Eventually the big loss comes, and trader will give up cause they know they will never be able get that big loss back.

I need a $1,000,000 trading ES account to make it work. and $5 million in savings and all bills and debt paid

And I do not have a $6,000,000 trading account.

I will stick to setting my stop loss, and setting my profit target per trade.
As with anything you have to know “when” to scale in. Not every trade is conducive to scaling into a losing position. Sometimes it is best to take the SL and even exit before the SL is hit. A trader has to really learn how the market probes back and forth, see that happening, and know how to capitalize on it by scaling into a losing position. Scaling in is not to make one feel better but it is used to increase probability of exiting a trade with profit. However, any time probability is increased usually risk is increased and reward is decreased. But not always. Sometimes by scaling in probabilty is increased, risk is increased, and reward increased dramatically on a subsequent further than expected favorable move after scaling in.

If it were not working for me then it would be best to quit doing it or practice more a sim until I felt confident I could do it successfully.
 
As far as taking a big loss. On a scaled in position if I see it is wrong I will exit quickly and often go doubled up position size in the right direction and get back my loss quickly. However, that too is dependent on the context of PA and momentum (as this is scalping remember) because I may take the loss on the averaged down position then reverse and double up my position size and then get whipsawed after taking a doubled up second position. Sometimes it is better to just take the loss on the scaled in trade (or any trade for that matter) and wait for another trade. The probability of the next trade working has no bearing or connection to the previous loss. It is a fresh start with a fresh opportunity.

Nobody is perfect in reading PA on a chart so hitting an exact entry exactly down to the tick and having no adverse subsequent move against ones position cannot be accomplished most of the time, although I have seen it happen often times. Getting the direction right but the timing a tad off is where I as a trader may have read the direction correctly but my timing being off a bit puts me in a losing position. So as the market churns back and forth then I may find I can average down increasing the probability of putting me in a position to exit making money. But obviously, if I read the direction wrong and find myself in an averaged down position AND still going in the wrong direction then I have to correct that mistake and QUICKLY or yes I will likely suffer a big loss wiping out all my previous profits I had made and had already locked in the same trading session.
 
Back
Top