Quote from tradingjournals:
I have hard time understanding your posts. Could you explain the headings and the numbers in the table? I think I got the idea of what you want to say, but the data inside is not explained.
For instance, you say it is unusual volume. How come then that the cumulative is only 100% of the 65 average? The other columns (particularly the last 3) need explanations. What are those numbers, how are they useful, and how to use them?
I spent 20 minutes dictating the table. Excel was used.
1. I divided the day into 30 minute infromation bundles. (13)
2. I assigned portions of the daily volume to the 13 bundles.
I did this by intuiting how the daily catenary works. As you see there is a resemblance to a four degree polynomial
I had been using the rule set for about 35 years so this effort was easy. (doubling in position trading every 40 some days)
3. I asked that we set up an Excel spread sheet with 13 rows plus headers.
4. the numbers on the volume catenary chart were transferred to the Excel.
The rows were ID'ed by time and zones (left side of chart)
The headers use terminology for the independent variable. DU means Dry Up. the volume is the volume in The Pattern at score 7 of The Pattern.
Sorting a Universe is done by platforms. One such has a column named by someone (I do not know who). His view of volume was that at times stocks had unusual volumes. Since they did they could be filtered for making money. He is correct.
If and when a so rt is done the scores of The Pattern are differentiated automatically.
The Pattern is scored by signifcant variables in their declining significance: Price, Volume, and A/D. the binary values are converted to base 10. Increasing and A are 1 and decreasing and D are 0's. Hence The Pattern has 8 scores for the market cycle.
DU is 0, FRV is 7 and Peaking is reached at 4 going to 3.
To make trading very profitable, it is important to know a stock is going to go up, before it begins to go up. this eliminates a thing in CW called "risk". Also to make money fastest it is good to enter late and leave early. All of this is explained in a document ET cannot handle. the document is called "putting the Piees Together". It is also in a video from which the document was transcsribed and illustrated. All of the trading was done in a real account.
I invented The Pattern and scoring before I dictated the one pager for position trading using a filtered Universe. I nvented the filter as well.
5. The columns DU, FRV and Peaking were not hard to do. The volume and the cummulative volume came frome copying values and just adding the new value to the prior row to get cummulative. I am sorry you had difficulty with these things.
6. The columns DU, FRV and Peaking came from multipliers of the cummulative volume. I invented the multipliers by speaking them aloud. The values are color coded as you see. I did this to let a user see which rules were use where.
7. The independent varialbe leads the dependent variable by 1 1/2 hours.
8. A persom kaes a HOT LIST.
He watches the hot list unusual volume which equals cummulative daily volume divided by 65 day average volume.
9. On the buy day, he sees in FRV column that DU is reached in a few 30 minute periods. He has 1 1/2 hours to buy at a dull unchanging price.
10. Filtered stocks go 20% in a few days. He takes 10% (half of the swing). the sell is when the peaking volume FAILS to keep up. This is around the fourth to sixth day.
So you can read the whole detailed illustrated story or view me speaking it to a group of about 70. they asked Q's and such and their is humor. the audience is from all over the US because they fly in every two weeks for a two hour spiel.
As you see this is simple and the performance is above average since most approaches do not double every 40 days like this one does.
I am amazed to hear that you could not fathom the one pager. Fifth grades have been able to use it with the wall street journal daily data. they are usually a day late going in and going out. they make up thier Universes by reading the various columns of the listings. I admit the kids were in a prep school and they were offsprings of the Hollywood mileaux
As time went by, a team (the PhD's) decided to check out the one pager by taking a 400,000 element sample. Nothing was changed.
