The markets change their mind, so must the trader, sometimes though it doubles back again and again until it starts givin' ya the shits.
The markets are frequently wrong
- Thread starter themickey
- Start date
It sure does. And all traders will have losers. Even the very best traders. Trading is a game of percentages and even the best setups fail. So, what do you do? Move on to the next trade. All trades has an equal chance of being that big winner we love. It is not going to happen each time you trade but, if you use your best setups and trade with the trend, the odds are in your favor. Just like the professional blackjack player who counts cards. Why do you think the casino is trying to run them out each time they catch them?
Why would you be concerned about me? As long as you are making money it doesn't matter whether I'm right or wrong.
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Good + mostly right/LOL
Markets are seldom wrong-- even though I've seen markets wrong.
Charts showed QLD chopped in half , this year,red weekly candle.I figured it was wrong + it was/50% stock split; good trends can result in a stock/etf split.
OF course when they reverse split an inverse ETF, like SPXS; like the WSJ noted ''capital is being destroyed. ''[They assumed buy + hold,those are not designed for buy/hold]
Of course this is a loaded question in that the concept of "right" is ill-defined in general, not just trading. But still a good thread.
I can add this. Anyone else trade the 3 days before 9/11. It seemed to me the market players knew something was up. The volume dropped off so much I kept on thinking there was an FOMC meeting that I did not know about. I chalked it off* to a "decision" point in the market. Sort of a calm before something happens.
So I would say, the market seems aware of what is happening and reacts. I know total non comital statement.
(*got lucky, imo, and took a 2X normal allocation on 2x short Nas100 and 2x short Sp500. It was supposed to be a fluctuation trade and cover quickly. Did well and went 2X long on covering but exited 2 days later.)
I can add this. Anyone else trade the 3 days before 9/11. It seemed to me the market players knew something was up. The volume dropped off so much I kept on thinking there was an FOMC meeting that I did not know about. I chalked it off* to a "decision" point in the market. Sort of a calm before something happens.
So I would say, the market seems aware of what is happening and reacts. I know total non comital statement.
(*got lucky, imo, and took a 2X normal allocation on 2x short Nas100 and 2x short Sp500. It was supposed to be a fluctuation trade and cover quickly. Did well and went 2X long on covering but exited 2 days later.)
Mmmmm...... maybe.....perhaps....humans have intuitions.Of course this is a loaded question in that the concept of "right" is ill-defined in general, not just trading. But still a good thread.
I can add this. Anyone else trade the 3 days before 9/11. It seemed to me the market players knew something was up. The volume dropped off so much I kept on thinking there was an FOMC meeting that I did not know about. I chalked it off* to a "decision" point in the market. Sort of a calm before something happens.
So I would say, the market seems aware of what is happening and reacts. I know total non comital statement.
(*got lucky, imo, and took a 2X normal allocation on 2x short Nas100 and 2x short Sp500. It was supposed to be a fluctuation trade and cover quickly. Did well and went 2X long on covering but exited 2 days later.)
The key is to have strict price action based rules to confirm entries and exits.
Example SQQQ great today holding 2d high so I'm heaviest in it vs weaker inverses like SPXS SDOW TZA.
I think the market was wrong to not sell off more on trump cv diagnosis but miraculously the market doesn't give a fck what I think lol. All we have is our trading rules and risk management
Example SQQQ great today holding 2d high so I'm heaviest in it vs weaker inverses like SPXS SDOW TZA.
I think the market was wrong to not sell off more on trump cv diagnosis but miraculously the market doesn't give a fck what I think lol. All we have is our trading rules and risk management
Friday US action was a muted reaction to Trump coronavius news, technology seemed the worst affected among the bunch but technology stocks reacted more only because it has run so hard of late compared to everything else, oh, and gold was a bit sad, nothing dramatic though.
My opinion, alot of the market bounced back up during the day, we still had lower highs and lower lows, possibly what's going on is the great Houdini, the great escape plan. Pump then gtfo.
"Remember, the market is always right. It is the analysis or set-up that is wrong." - Peter Borish (from Foreword for "Mastering the Trade").
That being said, with the way I trade and the reliability of my indicators, I often have to assume the market is "temporarily wrong" if the initial move goes against me or I will bail on the trade before it has a chance to work itself out. That has been my biggest challenge to overcome - assuming I am wrong instead of acknowledging that the market "can be wrong" for a certain time period of my trade.
That being said, with the way I trade and the reliability of my indicators, I often have to assume the market is "temporarily wrong" if the initial move goes against me or I will bail on the trade before it has a chance to work itself out. That has been my biggest challenge to overcome - assuming I am wrong instead of acknowledging that the market "can be wrong" for a certain time period of my trade.
Ya absobeautily totally blollicks....
