The market rocketed at the bottom in March 2009

[Maverick2608]

SPY lost 56% during the financial crisis not including dividends. Quite cruel.

However, two months later the loss had shrunk to -41%.

The financial crisis has been described as a 1 in 100 year event.

Maybe we should consider buying this market when it crosses -30%?

 

[TrAndy2022]

Nope, as balance sheet from FED is still shrinking for the next quarters, so I would stay away for 9 to 12 months still.

 

[Maverick2608]

Nope, as balance sheet from FED is still shrinking for the next quarters, so I would stay away for 9 to 12 months still.

As far as I know the Fed has not announced any direct selling, so it will take many years for the balance sheet to shrink waiting for the bonds to mauture. But of course they could potentially make the decision to start selling.

 

[TrAndy2022]

 

[Maverick2608]

View attachment 296493

Yes, that is entirely bonds maturing according to Financial Times.

 

[MacBookProHo]

Maybe we should consider buying this market when it crosses -30%?

It's wrong and false logic to assume the market will continue to repeat itself safely, and bounce off of those past support/resistance range lines. Deviations, and something new and different, happens all the time,

The market is a dynamic, malleable, entity from day trading to swing trading to investing timeframes -- a trader should be open, and neutral, to account for variable changes and expectations,

 

[SteveH]

No V-recovery with this one. This is worse than the 70's.