The market is whispering something...

compisnada2002 · Jan 15, 2003

Oh vinni you done did it this time. You pissed off sex lube....come on Vinni Are you gonna you gonna step up to the plate?????

If not I think you may have to create a new identity...

.... and you know what they say about sicillian's?????

lmfao

comp

Quote from Molon Labe:

I wasn't going to press the issue but that does it, pussy.

I'm <b>letting you pick the escrow</b>, assuming it's someone/some firm fit to serve in this capacity. My money will be there tommorow.

C'mon vinny, quit acting like a stereotype Sicillian and put your money where your mouth is already. $10,000....the bet was your great idea in the first place wasn't it?

Is $10K your entire life savings? What 's the problem vinny? vinny?

Molon Labe · Jan 15, 2003

If he's willing to serve as escrow, i guess I'd consider going along with it. Although, I'd really prefer someone I can be confident will be around in 1/2 a year from now.

Are you sure that Baron (owner of elitetrader) isn't fit to serve as escrow? Can anybody here suggest a reputable solution to this?

MondoTrader · Jan 15, 2003

I don't know if anybody mentioned it, but the reason that oil isn't jumping is because OPEC is cooperating and increasing oil supplies , and because the feds have been massively increasing oil stockpiles and will feed that stockpile into the market when necessary. There's not going to be an oil shock. The open warfare portion of the Iraq invasion will be over in a matter of weeks anyway, after that we will just be a police force imposing martial law, and that oil will just keep pumping.

Minime · Jan 15, 2003

Quote from MondoTrader:

I don't know if anybody mentioned it, but the reason that oil isn't jumping is because OPEC is cooperating and increasing oil supplies , and because the feds have been massively increasing oil stockpiles and will feed that stockpile into the market when necessary. There's not going to be an oil shock. The open warfare portion of the Iraq invasion will be over in a matter of weeks anyway, after that we will just be a police force imposing martial law, and that oil will just keep pumping.

I thought it was because nobody drove their SUV's today?

MondoTrader · Jan 15, 2003

by the way, if you are betting even odds against a war, that is a huge sucker bet. Odds heavily favor war even though its not a certainty. I would want at least 3:1 payoff to bet against war.

Molon Labe · Jan 15, 2003

Mondo, I'm just betting against the likelihood of a war in the next 1/2 year. I wouldn't want to put down a bet against war over a longer time frame than 9 months from now.

There are too many short term problems for our military to undertake this task during this current cool season. Pres. Bush will be forced to wait until the next acceptable weather period, which is late autumn. Politically speaking, this is also to his advantage, as victory can come during his election campaign.

Hopefully I'll make $10,000 out of the deal too.

ZBEAR · Jan 15, 2003

Quote from Molon Labe:

Mondo, I'm just betting against the likelihood of a war in the next 1/2 year. I wouldn't want to put down a bet against war over a longer time frame than 9 months from now.

There are too many short term problems for our military to undertake this task during this current cool season. Pres. Bush will be forced to wait until the next acceptable weather period, which is late autumn. Politically speaking, this is also to his advantage, as victory can come during his election campaign.

Hopefully I'll make $10,000 out of the deal too.

Molon Labe:
If that is what Mr Saddam thinks too,
Then our Boyz (and Girls) will have the primary military advantage of "Surprise"
in their favor if we attack earlier.

I just love surprises.
.

"It is the soldier, not the reporter,
Who has given us freedom of the press.
It is the soldier, not the poet,
Who has given us freedom of speech.
It is the soldier, not the campus organizer,
Who has given us the freedom to demonstrate.
It is the soldier,
Who salutes the flag,
Who serves beneath the flag,
And whose coffin is draped by the flag,
Who allows the protester to burn the flag."
.......... Father Denis Edward O'Brien USMC

Babak · Jan 15, 2003

Quote from MondoTrader:

I don't know if anybody mentioned it, but the reason that oil isn't jumping is because OPEC is cooperating and increasing oil supplies , and because the feds have been massively increasing oil stockpiles and will feed that stockpile into the market when necessary. There's not going to be an oil shock. The open warfare portion of the Iraq invasion will be over in a matter of weeks anyway, after that we will just be a police force imposing martial law, and that oil will just keep pumping.

Actually, I interpret things differently. I see OPEC saying they will open the spigot more. I see the reserves topped off and Bush emphatic that he will not use them yet. And still the price of oil keeps going up!!

IMHO, this means that what OPEC is doing is not enough. As well, the price of oil is exogenous to my line of thinking. I referred to the integrated and oil services sectors. If the US will be fighting and winning a short war, then you can bet that ELF, PetroBras, etc. won't be getting any contracts. It'll be HP, CVX, et al. So why aren't they rallying then? Wouldn't they just waltz in and take over a gazillion barrels of light sweet?

As well a totally different sector (but related to this scenario) is the defense sector. Why aren't they rallying? Even a short war would mean occupation. And that means military spending like you can't believe. Anyone care to look up how much the occupation of Japan cost the US?

I don't want to belabour the point. I've already stated it. To me the market is saying there will be no war. Could I be wrong?

Of course!!

But I don't think we'll have to wait for a long time to find out.

compisnada2002 · Jan 15, 2003

The biggest land battel of desert storm was fought durring a sand storm and we one without one casualty. We have all the proper equipment needed to fight those battles.

comp

Quote from Molon Labe:

Mondo, I'm just betting against the likelihood of a war in the next 1/2 year. I wouldn't want to put down a bet against war over a longer time frame than 9 months from now.

There are too many short term problems for our military to undertake this task during this current cool season. Pres. Bush will be forced to wait until the next acceptable weather period, which is late autumn. Politically speaking, this is also to his advantage, as victory can come during his election campaign.

Hopefully I'll make $10,000 out of the deal too.

Minime · Jan 15, 2003

Quote from MondoTrader:

by the way, if you are betting even odds against a war, that is a huge sucker bet. Odds heavily favor war even though its not a certainty. I would want at least 3:1 payoff to bet against war.

It's well known that in addition to IRAQ defying UN resolutions, Saddam also made threats against Bush Sr. and family. I think this war is personal as well.