The market is whispering something...

Quote from Babak:



If the market knows before anyone (according to Dow theory) and discounts the future, then why are the sectors that would benefit from the war not rallying?

We've all heard those that say this is all about American imperialism and the true goal is getting their hands on Iraqi oil fields. I don't want to get into a political debate about this. My point in bringing that up is to say, ok....so if that is the real aim of the US and if they are without a doubt going to invade, take over and occupy Iraq....

....then why are the sectors of the US economy that would benefit tremendously from such events not responding?

I know that sounds kooky, but that (to me) is what the market is whispering.

I would really like to know what other traders read into the market action, but I beseech you to please contain your comments to the market and strategy instead of political debate. I initiated this thread in the 'Trading' forum because I wished it to be about the market and not about politics.

Look forward to your ideas.
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The following comments refer to US market only. IMHO:
1. The Bush administration has been talking about the war against Iraq for months. The market has discounted this already.

2. US interest rate is at 41 year low. A lot of people think that the bull run in the bond market is over. There is asset re-allocation going on. This prevents the stock market from plunging. However, the US economy is still week. Retails sales are miserable. Labor market is soft. There is risk of deflation(just shop for clothing yourself). Housing foreclosures and bankruptcies are very high. It is difficult for the market to sky-rocket either.

3. The war against terrorism has been going on for almost 16 months. There was a real war against Afghanistan at the end of 2001. The defense and security sector has benefited a lot from these events already. There is little room to their stocks to go up.


:p

:cool:


:D
 
What a brilliant comment.........."the market is'nt whispering it's mumbling incoherently"

As for war, the monkey in the white house said yesterday that he was "sick and tired" of Saddam's lies and deceit. Poor George, must be really tough having to put up with Iraq........perhaps someone will explain to him that the decision to wage war should be handled by the UN

If there is a war it'll probably be over in a day {never mind a week} and then we can look forward to decades of more middle eastern turmoil, all thanks to idiots like Bush.
 
Quote from hardrock375:

He hit 500 posts, got his Elite Member status, and began anew.
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Hey, I wouldn't have even noticed that! Me and WDGANN got our Gold Member status. We get to sit in the special dining room now.
 
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Quote:

I'm not talking about a little air raid or cruise missile here and there- that's been going on for the last 12 years.
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And you all wonder why these people are resentful of America.

Iraq should be required to disarm. But so should every other country in the world. Iraq is being bullied by this hypocrisy, and if you were in their position you would all be even more defiant than Hussein has been.
 
Quote from hii a_ooiioo_a:

Hey, I wouldn't have even noticed that! Me and WDGANN got our Gold Member status. We get to sit in the special dining room now.
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I hear when you get over 1000 posts that there is a free buffet at lunch too!

Dare I even wonder what those above 2000 get?

:)
 
You heard wrong. You don't get a free buffet at lunch.

If you post over 1,000 what you get is a free lunch with Warren Buffet.
Or maybe only Jimmy Buffet. In which case you don't get lunch at all, but only a Margarita.
 
Gold & oil were tricky last war with Iraq also.

Markets still look strong;not finding many shorts.
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''Buy to the sound of cannons'' Baron Rothchild
 
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