The market is SO WRONG at this point

[SunTrader]

The Treasury is fully aware. But they are going to go on using the language you're familiar with. Otherwise you might call Yellen a "liar." Start calling our so-called "national debt" "ersatz debt" and see how many raised eyebrows that elicits.

Of course they are fully aware ... that they are borrowing. And that is why they worded it as such and not because they would be called liars nonsense.

I'm not getting on this merry-go-round for another spin. Carry-on with this backwards train of thought without me.

 

[BKR88]

I know it's ironic, but the market seems so wrong at this point.


Is there something that we are not seeing??? There is a possibility that we are driven towards full-AGI (artificial intelligence) that will solve all the worlds problems, making us all rich and happy.

In a sense that the market is this great prediction tool as it discounts EVERY possible indicator in existence into the price and we are rallying because of this great future that lies ahead.


While certainly possible, it seems highly unlikely at this point (it's probably farther off than we imagine it to be).

Because the discrepancy between perception and reality has probably never been bigger. The reality of the situation is that we are FU**ED.


The ONE thing that markets HATE more than anything is UNCERTAINTY. And now we have more potential upcoming uncertainties than we've ever had:
1.) Bank failures
2.) China reunition with Taiwan
3.) Escalation in the middle east
4.) US internal security issues (unvetted immigrants)
5.) US civil "issues"

Just to count some from the top of my head. There are probably many more.


I am not even saying the market has topped. I am more like "what the fu*k?"

I am smart enough to know that none of this matters for as long as FED keeps printing, making the number go up.

HOWEVER, at some point, something IS going to break and it's gonna get ugly. Right?


Just looking at my history it's kind of interesting because i've had quite a few amazingly accurate predictions that came true. Of course i am cherry picking and i've been wrong a lot too and obviously i don't know what happens next and i am wondering just like everyone else is.

But maybe i am not completely off??? How much more wrong can the market get?

Calling the Covid crash months in advance;
SP500 DOWN to 2500 and then to 2200

Predicting crash of Boeing & the market:
BOEING is going DOWN and it's taking whole market with it. Crash is inevitable

Calling out market bottom:
This is what a market bottom looks like

Calling for massive pumps on junk assets (eg. cryptos):
Is this the time when the biggest junk pumps?

Predicting good(bullish) times ahead:
"Bull markets climb a wall of worry"

Zimbabwe 2.0 ?
https://pracap.com/bad-is-good/?utm...yDQ&utm_content=300046815&utm_source=hs_email

 

[maxinger]

The market is SO WRONG at this point
-------)
The market is SO FULL of opportunities at this point


You must have lost tons of money. The market is always correct

 

[Businessman]

Shiller PE ratio is 35, this is below the dotcom bubble peak (44) but higher than the 1929 peak (32)

So yeah according to this metric we are in a stock market bubble, the second biggest of all time, but it can still go higher, maybe to be the biggest ever, but could also start to crash at anytime.

 

[wxytrader]

Your points are valid... but the market is irrational at times.

I can imagine the markets continuing to rally on the expectation of interest rate cuts... and continue doing so until they think the final cut has been made. Perhaps that will be somewhere around 3.5-4% in the 10 yr.. IF that the case, the market has MUCH further to "irrationally run".

The "rug pull" will be devastation, of course.

The market is never a irrrational. It's completely rational. This run that spy is on is simply completing the extension. Naturally it coincides with an election year which facilitates the extension further, as does the idea of interest rate cuts in coming. Once the election is over and the interest rates dropping honeymoon is over. Kaboom. It'll probably just be a correction, but eventually we'll get a capitulation which will be the extension cycle in the opposite direction which will lead to mayhem which will lead to interest rates being cut further which will lead to overspending which will lead to inflation leading to raising rates which would eventually be cut creating a rally which would put us right about the next election.

 

[orbit23]

Nah this bull market is never ending. It really doesn't matter what the reason is. This market actually cannot sustain any selling. It really will go up forever. Even seeing a 5% drop would be the single greatest accomplishment in the history of the market.

None of your issues would bring the market down. Most have been happening while the market continues to go higher. Market doesn't care about the Middle east or issues here or in China. Bank failures are bullish as they just merge with other banks and we know the will do whatever to avoid any systematic risk.

The only thing would be if earnings ever dropped, but they won't and they will just find other stocks to pump to offset any weakness. So there's nothing that can bring this market down.

This would have been a great comment if it were sarcastic, but i am afraid it's not.

 

[wxytrader]

This would have been a great comment if it were sarcastic, but i am afraid it's not.

Nah this bull market is never ending. It really doesn't matter what the reason is. This market actually cannot sustain any selling. It really will go up forever. Even seeing a 5% drop would be the single greatest accomplishment in the history of the market.

None of your issues would bring the market down. Most have been happening while the market continues to go higher. Market doesn't care about the Middle east or issues here or in China. Bank failures are bullish as they just merge with other banks and we know the will do whatever to avoid any systematic risk.

The only thing would be if earnings ever dropped, but they won't and they will just find other stocks to pump to offset any weakness. So there's nothing that can bring this market down.

This rally is nothing compared to 2020 which price more than doubled from $220 to $480. It must go up before it can capitulate and continue in a long term bull bias trajectory as it has since the beginning of the stock market. It can still go another 50-100 points too lol...it's not even half the length of the rally in 2020 yet. Market confidence should be at ridiculous levels at that point and primed for a rug pull.

Just look at the chart...we had a massive capitulation followed by a v recovery, followed by a long sweeping downtrend for an entire year, that was barely recovering before yet another a correction...this bull run has barely begun. Add to that this is an election cylcle lol. Sounds like some people keep bucking the trend hoping to get lucky with puts or shorting.

What is the Target for Cup and Handle Pattern?
The target with the cup and handle pattern is the height of the cup added to the breakout point of the handle.

If the height of the cup is the previous rally, then this could put us at $640 or higher before a correction.

 

[schizo]

The ONE thing that markets HATE more than anything is UNCERTAINTY. And now we have more potential upcoming uncertainties than we've ever had:
1.) Bank failures
2.) China reunition with Taiwan
3.) Escalation in the middle east
4.) US internal security issues (unvetted immigrants)
5.) US civil "issues"

Just to count some from the top of my head. There are probably many more.

Definitely number 5 for sure. Civil unrest could spread out to civil war, which was unthinkable just 10 years ago. But now with these MAGA wingnuts, anything's possible.

Another possibility in the not-too-distant horizon is Uncle Sam going belly up. You cannot print your way out of debt, period. Weimar republic tried it and paid a heavy price. So have Rome, and countless other dumbass nations/empires.

As for that idiot Putin, he just dug up his own grave by staging a false terrorist plot. His days are numbered.

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

This rally is nothing compared to 2020 which price more than doubled from $220 to $480. It must go up before it can capitulate and continue in a long term bull bias trajectory as it has since the beginning of the stock market. It can still go another 50-100 points too lol...it's not even half the length of the rally in 2020 yet. Market confidence should be at ridiculous levels at that point and primed for a rug pull.

Just look at the chart...we had a massive capitulation followed by a v recovery, followed by a long sweeping downtrend for an entire year, that was barely recovering before yet another a correction...this bull run has barely begun. Add to that this is an election cylcle lol. Sounds like some people keep bucking the trend hoping to get lucky with puts or shorting.

What is the Target for Cup and Handle Pattern?
The target with the cup and handle pattern is the height of the cup added to the breakout point of the handle.

If the height of the cup is the previous rally, then this could put us at $640 or higher before a correction.


View attachment 337262

where you lose me is 2020 had violent pullbacks and actual directional down moves along the way. This market just isn't comparable. There's no downside ever more than a day that leads to an instant V. Back then technicals actually mattered and worked. Look at all those 50 day MA tests. None of that happens anymore. It's all guaranteed to go up.

 

[piezoe]

Let's just be patient and enjoy our realized and paper an profits. The market is likely to experience a "correction" sometime after the Fall election if Biden wins, probably sometime in 2025. On the other hand, if shits-in-pants wins, then who knows.