The market is SO WRONG at this point

[v-shape-0DTE]

I am not talking about the long term. Now ES is $5144. In a few days, it should drop bad.

It can't stop making V's. Every small dip is instantly a V shape. All week long. The bear market idea is on life support. It's just insanely difficult for the dips not to get bought. It turns out last week was the anomaly.

Think about where we were last week to now. It happens so fast.

 

[schizo]

It can't stop making V's. Every small dip is instantly a V shape. All week long. The bear market idea is on life support. It's just insanely difficult for the dips not to get bought. It turns out last week was the anomaly.

Think about where we were last week to now. It happens so fast.

V-man, you said the same crap when I forecasted the market would reverse (remember??!!).

For the time being, yes, we will head back up as I've stated earlier (see below), but don't be so damn naive to think we'll be hitting ATH again.

 

[hajimow]

Market did not reverse. Today's rally was with limited stocks like GOOGL and MSFT. TSLA, AAPL were red. 12 elements of DOW were down. We still have big inflation and also fear of recession or stagflation. No worry of a collapse but things to think about. Put a big weight on WMT being down.

 

[schizo]

Market did not reverse. Today's rally was with limited stocks like GOOGL and MSFT. TSLA, AAPL were red. 12 elements of DOW were down. We still have big inflation and also fear of recession or stagflation. No worry of a collapse but things to think about. Put a big weight on WMT being down.View attachment 339074

Well, you can't really use individual stock(s) as a benchmark for the overall performance of the equity market. Hence, it's better to use the indices or ETF. But yeah, I agree the market is mostly being pumped up by those "Magnificent Seven". This can't go on forever though. It's bound to blow up in their faces.

 

[orbit23]

My question is, if you can get 5% risk free, why would you risk it in the market at this point? Honestly i can't tell, maybe i am reading this wrongly, but it says US treasuries pay 5.4% APY?

People are SO long that they are literally paying you 5% annually to go to cash.


In crypto there are funding rates on perpetuals, and during an uptrend there is prolonged period of positive funding rates (longs pay shorts). And on the extremes/prolonged excess of positive funding is almost always distribution and market drops lower.

I would say the psychology is the same in the markets. Am i wrong?

 

[hajimow]

Well, you can't really use individual stock(s) as a benchmark for the overall performance of the equity market. Hence, it's better to use the indices or ETF. But yeah, I agree the market is mostly being pumped up by those "Magnificent Seven". This can't go on forever though. It's bound to blow up in their faces.

It is not individual stocks. WMT shows the pulse of the economy better than GOOGL. 33% of DOW were down. INTC, JNJ, DIS, WMT, CSCO, IBM, AAPL, AXP,....

 

[schizo]

It is not individual stocks. WMT shows the pulse of the economy better than GOOGL. 33% of DOW were down. INTC, JNJ, DIS, WMT, CSCO, IBM, AAPL, AXP,....

Unfortunately, people look at the overall indices to size up the health of the stock market, and the S&P closed up 1.02% today. This will likely invite more buyers in the coming days.

 

[hajimow]

Unfortunately, people look at the overall indices to size up the health of the stock market, and the S&P closed up 1.02% today. This will likely invite more buyers in the coming days.

You are absolutely right. We are only exchanging our opinions. Nothing is for sure in this market.

 

[Nine_Ender]

My question is, if you can get 5% risk free, why would you risk it in the market at this point? Honestly i can't tell, maybe i am reading this wrongly, but it says US treasuries pay 5.4% APY?

People are SO long that they are literally paying you 5% annually to go to cash.


In crypto there are funding rates on perpetuals, and during an uptrend there is prolonged period of positive funding rates (longs pay shorts). And on the extremes/prolonged excess of positive funding is almost always distribution and market drops lower.

I would say the psychology is the same in the markets. Am i wrong?

Yes you seem to be wrong perpetually for an extended period of time. Starting with the premise that "the market" is the SPX. You could have played commodity stocks the last few months done extremely well. You take a simplistic approach to analyzing "the market" without realizing that US indexes are dominated by high flying IT stocks, and until recent months the rest of NA markets were struggling and in some areas dirt cheap.

GIC rates have nothing to do with equity markets.

 

[orbit23]

Yes you seem to be wrong perpetually for an extended period of time. Starting with the premise that "the market" is the SPX. You could have played commodity stocks the last few months done extremely well. You take a simplistic approach to analyzing "the market" without realizing that US indexes are dominated by high flying IT stocks, and until recent months the rest of NA markets were struggling and in some areas dirt cheap.

GIC rates have nothing to do with equity markets.

It depends on the timeframe you are looking at it. I am looking at it from a long-term perspective. As if you are a long-term holder. So it might seem wrong in the moment, but if you zoom out it might be just a deviation.

From that perspective if you sold the exact bottom at 4100, but then it went higher to 5200, and then it crashed to 1500... You still did alright.

Call me crazy but this is how i view things right now. We have the most CRAZY conditions we've ever had, so why wouldn't we have the most crazy price action as well?

This is with 12Month candle chart.

If you are looking from (day)trading perspective then you have no choice but to trade with the momentum.
If you don't follow the momentum, you will be wrong on the timing, get stopped and lose money... and then it happens without you.