The market is so logical
- Thread starter dozu888
- Start date
I think this may be closer to the core...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic
cj...
HAVE STOP <img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif"> WILL TRADE
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Funny comment;
however if nickname ammo is using lines like 50dma,
trend lines of hi/lo, funny, but better than average probability of true.
True,2-27 week went down further than i thought,
and then proceeded to uptrend sooner than i thought.
But to call an up-trending bull market ''purely random'', ''no clue ''is quite simply amazing!!!!!!!
Could you explain further what that means?
Interesting conversation.
The market is logical. This thread is logical.
The thread "The market is logical" is an "equity". Every poster that has commented has put on a trade on this "equity" with his comments - on the long side and short side (the undecided are range bound). I'll have to print this thread, chart the comments as an up or down (of course with an accompanying trend line) on our lone market equity that we are trading and offer up an "analysis" I will forward this "analysis to the news wires. Some reporter should pick this up and seek out a comment from a "guru". Cramer will report on "Guru's" comments with a side order of Ben.
This thread is a mini market, in play. Booyah.
The market is logical. This thread is logical.
The thread "The market is logical" is an "equity". Every poster that has commented has put on a trade on this "equity" with his comments - on the long side and short side (the undecided are range bound). I'll have to print this thread, chart the comments as an up or down (of course with an accompanying trend line) on our lone market equity that we are trading and offer up an "analysis" I will forward this "analysis to the news wires. Some reporter should pick this up and seek out a comment from a "guru". Cramer will report on "Guru's" comments with a side order of Ben.
This thread is a mini market, in play. Booyah.
A mkt is a reflection of the participants understanding or misunderstanding of the available data to said participants. Some are more informed than others, some are just throwing darts at a board.
With the above information and a lot more ideas that are "FED" into the mkt from the players is it any wonder why no one has the answer to what the next tick will be? No one knows where the trend will go, NO ONE. The best we can do is play the odds with our individual skillsets.
deciding if the mkt is random or not is a waste of time and effort when one considers all the flawed interactions of maybe a few hundred k different players and each with their own thoughts being processed in a odds producing numbers game.
With the above information and a lot more ideas that are "FED" into the mkt from the players is it any wonder why no one has the answer to what the next tick will be? No one knows where the trend will go, NO ONE. The best we can do is play the odds with our individual skillsets.
deciding if the mkt is random or not is a waste of time and effort when one considers all the flawed interactions of maybe a few hundred k different players and each with their own thoughts being processed in a odds producing numbers game.
It depends how you define random. To me random is something that changes form in a vacuum, there is no force acting on it but still moves in an entierly abritrary fashion. Price, on the other hand, does move for a reason. It relates to economic forces pushing it. I dont mean to sound condecending but so many "traders" think all there is to trading is staring at a chart with squiggly lines and they watch the price for some "random" reason moving towards their squggly line so they sell it (because its at a squggly line so must stop there...) then the price carries on through and they scream and shout "some times it goes through sometimes it doesnt how can i make money in this, its random!!"
But if you start to learn about why markets exist and what effects them it starts to make more sense. There is so much money changing hands everyday that isnt even that bothered about price they are interested in exposure, risk, yield etc. If the US hike rates and japan dont you have people that have huge exposure in Yen that is earning them no interest so by transfering the money into dollars they instantly get 4%+ more interest on your money. This is what the markets are really there for. And thats why the price went through your squiggly line coz you were trading the dollar against the Yen. And not every person changes their currency over in a split second they do it continuously as their business's trade they are constantly changing their currency exposure, hence trends.
However, the "random" element is you dont know when these economic changes are going to happen i.e nobody can tell you what interest rates/oil inventories/GDP will be 2 years from today, but its amazing how much more logical the markets are when you understand why they are moving now, and you know they are likely to continue moving that way until another force stops it. As i said before we are not in a random vacuum
But if you start to learn about why markets exist and what effects them it starts to make more sense. There is so much money changing hands everyday that isnt even that bothered about price they are interested in exposure, risk, yield etc. If the US hike rates and japan dont you have people that have huge exposure in Yen that is earning them no interest so by transfering the money into dollars they instantly get 4%+ more interest on your money. This is what the markets are really there for. And thats why the price went through your squiggly line coz you were trading the dollar against the Yen. And not every person changes their currency over in a split second they do it continuously as their business's trade they are constantly changing their currency exposure, hence trends.
However, the "random" element is you dont know when these economic changes are going to happen i.e nobody can tell you what interest rates/oil inventories/GDP will be 2 years from today, but its amazing how much more logical the markets are when you understand why they are moving now, and you know they are likely to continue moving that way until another force stops it. As i said before we are not in a random vacuum