The market is seeing something we dont see yet—

[Overnight]

View attachment 196282

...
Happy prosperous New Year to all.

As a side note, I wanted to mention that the above chart you posted is certainly an eye-opener when you draw basic lines. Knowing the numbers in the head is one thing, but seeing it on a chart brings it into contrast.

The red line is what the chart would look like if it fell in the same percentage of 50% of 2007-2008, were it to unfold now. With the little up and down bars painted in of course. Very scary looking.

Odd timing when you think about it...That it could be happening now, after the YM is almost exactly double the point-number peak (27,000), within a very small percentage, of the previous peak in late 2007 (14,000).

 

[Simples]

Log-scale ain't as scary-looking though.

Inflation-adjusted chart (Dow Jones - Nov 2018).

 

[volpri]

In spite of EW and other trading ole timey concepts the odds heavily favor this market continuing right on up NOT down....this is just the Fed messing around guys with their silly interventions to clean house, make some $$$ for the treasury and leave trades and investors high and dry. Next they will build up HOPE to lure in the next set of EW’ers and ”whatever” Investors and traders.

AND of course they also wish to dispense with Mr T if at all possible..anything to make it harder for him....

Lol

 

[aquarian1]

I second this.

In my social circle there's now several market wizards and geniuses who's basically only been long equities for this entire bull market and happened to do their first trading ever around 2010. They felt very confident after the first drop in October and laughed at me when I suggested it was time to hedge their portfolio. Being long-only investors who's never experienced a correction or a bear market it seemed like they didn't even entertain the possibillity of this scenario.

They're no longer laughing and even seem a bit worried.

I agree.
They don't know a bear market.

The concerning thing is the amount of direct manipulation of the market by the US govt.

There was a little known bill passed that allows the gov't to directly buy up the market. It's not the plunge protection team but one passed subsequently. You have seen its action repeatedly in the last few (5?) years.

For example the S&P was down more than 20% from the peak on an intraday basis and pushed up to close just above it - so the papers/media wouldn't write

"Bear market on Christmas eve."

Then Trump tweets how great a bargain stocks are and they (the US govt) start a huge 2 day rally on boxing day and Thursday.

 

[forexpreneur]

i don't think it's so much that there's something ominous lurking in the shadows that hasn't shown its face yet like 2008.

There are many things lurking in the shadows. The entire global financial system is one large house of cards that was only built larger after the Great Recession of 2008.

My opinion is that we are seeing only the very beginning of the collapse. The problem is that there is very little ammunition left this time. Interest rates around the World are historically low, the amount of global leveraged debt is staggering, and this bubble over the last ten years has been blown so large that when it bursts, it will be very wide, and very deep, WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREDIBLE MULTI-GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A FORTUNE IF YOU PLAY IT RIGHT.

Happy trading in 2019!

 

[eurusdzn]

Possibly , over the last 10 years the fed become more than the last resort lender.
Possibly the fed put is much, much stronger than it was before though less talked about.
Cash and lending conditions be so that Munching should be calling the corporations to support their own equity .
Have at the ready a Stock Asset Rescue Program, SARP that corporations can use.
Do I have to think of everything here?

 

[Overnight]

Log-scale ain't as scary-looking though.

View attachment 196304

Inflation-adjusted chart (Dow Jones - Nov 2018).

View attachment 196305

Nah, your charts are just as scary-looking, with or without the lines. In fact, maybe even more so? Because your log charts show that a big dump is in the cards now.

 

[tommcginnis]

B.T.B.F.D.

I apologize for this glib Christmas Eve post. I was under the impression that the sale/retirement of FED Balance Sheet assets was well under way, and that we had already seen the market reaction to 'quality debt' being back on the market, and the carry-over effects from that into corporate/muni debt, blue chip stocks, etc. I WAS WAY WRONG: WE'RE BARELY STARTED.

So, this drop since October is not just a rising rate from the FED, this is a rising rate *and* in response to debt (substitute goods) competition for the quality-seeking dollar. And this graph (below) suggests we are poised for a *long* battle. It's not just rates, it's a debt glut being fed into a safe-harbor-seeking market.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

 

[volpri]

In spite of EW and other trading ole timey concepts the odds heavily favor this market continuing right on up NOT down....this is just the Fed messing around guys with their silly interventions to clean house, make some $$$ for the treasury and leave trades and investors high and dry. Next they will build up HOPE to lure in the next set of EW’ers and ”whatever” Investors and traders.

AND of course they also wish to dispense with Mr T if at all possible..anything to make it harder for him....

Lol

Told you so............

 

[volpri]

In spite of EW and other trading ole timey concepts the odds heavily favor this market continuing right on up NOT down....this is just the Fed messing around guys with their silly interventions to clean house, make some $$$ for the treasury and leave trades and investors high and dry. Next they will build up HOPE to lure in the next set of EW’ers and ”whatever” Investors and traders.

AND of course they also wish to dispense with Mr T if at all possible..anything to make it harder for him....

Lol

Told you so.........