I often wonder about the federal liability these outlets have and which banks own them. But that's just my inner conspiracy theorist talking I bet.
The market is seeing something we dont see yet—
- Thread starter NY_HOOD
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I often wonder about the federal liability these outlets have and which banks own them. But that's just my inner conspiracy theorist talking I bet.
Probably correct.
Viewing talking heads in msm as a contra-indicator was one of the first aha’s that led me to discover/have insight into how markets actually function vs how they are promoted to function.
Also the idea that whatever is happening now - smart money had already positioned itself and is currently harvesting profits is worthy to explore as well.
The caveat is smart money and big money are distinct and also have some overlap. The overlap is not nearly as big as how they are distinct.
As for requiring proof from someone that has attained success in the market, the only ones that will provide it are ones that have something to prove.
To use that as the sole screening criteria, although makes perfect sense from a skeptical pov and is valid in certain cases, there are cases where as you screen so you are screened.
As for the current market, it has and always will be a never-ending river of prosperity for those whom have cultivated a neutral mindset and a full spectrum of differentiation that informs their discernment.
Like learning a foreign language, a beginner derives substantially different meaning than someone fluent and has been immersed in the native culture.
ymmv
I can't show you an audited track record these days based upon anything let alone EW, but if I "splained" it to you, you'd go, "Hold crap. Why didn't I ever see that"? (Years ago when I was an RIA managing customers' funds, I could have.... audited track record, of course... not EW "based", just included. I'm no more full of BS now than I was then. In case you don't know, RIAs are not allowed to lie or exaggerate.... which basically is why they don't advertise their track record.)
I see. Here's an EW "guru" I challenged. 52% success rate, average return of 1.5% in a mostly raging bull market. I'm pretty sure dart-throwing monkeys would do better. His old stats were worse...not sure where they went.
https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/avi-gilburt
Good post overall, but this is pretty nebulous. What is "success in the market" for a self-proclaimed guru? Lots of money selling newsletters, subscription sites or chat rooms? Or for gurus at ET, lots of "likes," positive comments and cheerleading by others? How do you know they've actually been successful (beaten buy-and-hold with less risk) without proof? What else would you trust?
Success = an account statement or audited 3rd party performance report.
EW is complex. My experience with it is that lots of people try, but almost nobody "does it well". I don't claim to be an EWer myself, but I recognize a few of its major premises as valid.
If I were your guru, I'd suggest you forget all about EW rather than highlighting its devotees' weaknesses.
You bring up valid points and considerations. My view is that it is all contextual.
My personal measure is whether whatever is being evaluated is contributing to a greater insight and increased discernment as well as greater trust within myself.
If it promotes giving up personal autonomy/authority in deference to someone who ‘knows’ more - than it falls into someone giving me a fish rather than teaching me how to fish.
If you were to use your sole measure of success than logically it would follow that the most successful would provide that. However that is not the case. The most successful keep certain things private, case in point when have you seen a p&l of an hft?
There are some whom consider the only success in life is how good their financial statements are. However if you look at the truly successful, they all make the transition to being philanthropists - where it becomes more than being all about the money or providing only for themselves and their own.
That’s why as you screen based solely on the above criteria so you are screened. A philanthropist has different concerns and motivations than wasting time on someone who’s ‘all about the money.’
Time is our greatest resource and the great equilizer. Best to share it with those whom are appreciative than the nik pickers. Nik pickers and money grubbers are lost not knowing how lost they are. The very notion of someone giving value freely creates cognitive dissonance and is suspect.
As for whether the likes of a poster has any revelance to their content, again contextual. I’ve learned more from older wiser traders no longer with us whom successfully thrived during the disruption of the financial industry who have barely any ‘likes.’ They are of an earlier era at the dawn of social media. You’ll have to do you’re own due diligence to find someone that you can relate to.
Doesn't that make it a very subjective gobbledygook, against which it is impossible to measure performance?
Many make excellent points/observations and still many show their laziness. In past handful of years I been studying "Hedge" funds among other areas, when average guy on street hears "Hedge" most would feel confidence of their investment is safer, but is it truly safer with so many hedge funds curtailing, huge redemptions or huge slides of many funds. You would think this be a banner year, make it going up and some point double hedge open profits dividend paying stocks on down, wouldn't you? Actually, next couple years be good time to start hedge fund. Why sell stocks, you think baby formula people going to produce less cause markets are way over extended?
Trust, I trust God and 3 men I known long time, and if any one of them came to me with a trading system, I would have to test it, how someone else views it, I might not be able to understand it and simple won't work for me. I spend 99% of my time testing/studying in my isolated world. I especially like reading of areas when members say something can't work, then I really get to work on it.
Don't take a genius to figure out when something too high/low. I was hoping it goes much lower, nine months from now people having more babies.
Happy prosperous New Year to all.
Trust, I trust God and 3 men I known long time, and if any one of them came to me with a trading system, I would have to test it, how someone else views it, I might not be able to understand it and simple won't work for me. I spend 99% of my time testing/studying in my isolated world. I especially like reading of areas when members say something can't work, then I really get to work on it.
Don't take a genius to figure out when something too high/low. I was hoping it goes much lower, nine months from now people having more babies.
Happy prosperous New Year to all.
So you are betting on infant mik powder, that what you saying?
All the best for the New Year as well.