The market is seeing something we dont see yet—

[neke]

1% is too low, the number you wanted was 2%

1 cent invested at 1% for 2018 years is just $5million.
But 1 cent invested at 2% for 2018 years is more money than there is in the world today.

But why start at 1 cent? The value of investment property in just the leading economy at that time - the Roman empire - in real term was certainly more than $1million (In fact Caesar's net worth was said to be hundreds times that. So even if 1-tenth was committed to investment and keeps growing at 1% real, it would be way more than anything the world has now. Remember I assume 1% real rate of return (not with inflation).

As for the papacy (one person mentioned earlier) growing that much - well you will have to say what they started with - nothing? I dont think so, all that confiscation and confession money I would say is capital injection.

 

[NeedToLearn]

I like you, you are a good contributor to this forum! But dude you gotta understand this once and for all if you are to understand really economy and trading... As long as the US retains its Petro Dollar status, they can and will print to unlimited. The US Budget on paper, is 985 Billion for 2019... Central Banks never stopped printing money, it never stops, it cant stop at this point

Just to clarify, although they are all interrelated, US budget for spending may have to keep on going but the money that banks were almost "forced" to lend out because of fed fund rate being in negative territory can reverse. Most of the money gets created out of thin air this way (banks lending out money not from savings but what the fed allows them to). Which is why I mention not enough money to push the market higher as a result of money supply decreasing.

 

[southall]

But why start at 1 cent? The value of investment property in just the leading economy at that time - the Roman empire - in real term was certainly more than $1million (In fact Caesar's net worth was said to be hundreds times that. So even if 1-tenth was committed to investment and keeps growing at 1% real, it would be way more than anything the world has now. Remember I assume 1% real rate of return (not with inflation).

As for the papacy (one person mentioned earlier) growing that much - well you will have to say what they started with - nothing? I dont think so, all that confiscation and confession money I would say is capital injection.

You originally said "no investment that has grown 1%"

In theory a family dynasty could have started with say one acre of land in 0AD, reinvested rent or farming income and grown that to 500 million acres, that is 1% growth a year.

But there was no way even in theory to compound 1 acre of land at 2% for 2000 years as there just isn't enough land in the world.

In practice, war, famine, disease and idiot heirs would have stopped the theoretically possible 1% case from ever happening.

 

[neke]

You originally said "no investment that has grown 1%"

In theory a family dynasty could have started with say one acre of land in 0AD, reinvested rent or farming income and grown that to 500 million acres, that is 1% growth a year.

But there was no way even in theory to compound 1 acre of land at 2% for 2000 years as there just isn't enough land in the world.

In practice, war, famine, disease and idiot heirs would have stopped the theoretically possible 1% case from ever happening.

Thats exactly what I am driving at, and that's why no one can give an example of such a wealth growth. Too much instabilities in the world to allow that: wealth not readily transferable from a declining civilisation to another, declining industry to another (say Kodak to Microsoft), confiscation, bad management, etc in addition to the ones you mentioned.

 

[Scataphagos]

the market is seeing something that we are either ignoring or just dont see yet. Markets just dont crash this far and this fast for no reason. Bulls will always say its an overreaction but reality may be pointing to something more ominous.

If you understand and give any cred to Elliot Wave, you'll recognize that where the market is right now is most likely in the middle of Wave1 to the downside (wave3-of-1, specifically). Joe Granvilled labeled the 1st down wave portion of a bull/bear market as "disbelief" or "speculation". After the completion of Wave1 and subsequent correction (Wave2), we'll begin Wave3 to the downside. Granvilled called that "belief".... the recognition wave. That is, we come to understand the "why" of it all. Next will come the Wave4 correction.... to be followed by the Wave5 down. Granvilled called that "overbelief".... that is "conviction about the negatives and downside... and with the expectation/fear that it still has a long way to go down".

So... if that's anywhere near the deal this time, the bottom is still a long way away.... both in time and price.

FWIW...

 

[volpri]

Are you saying....jump out of the long johns and get into your shorts?

 

[Scataphagos]

Are you saying....jump out of the long johns and get into your shorts?

Chasing shorts late is usually hazardous.

I'm thinking the next relatively conservative place to short will be after W2 (correction) has completed a 50-62% retracement of the decline... if that's the kind of correction there is.

 

[vanzandt]

If you understand and give any cred to Elliot Wave, you'll recognize that where the market is right now is most likely in the middle of Wave1 to the downside (wave3-of-1, specifically). Joe Granvilled labeled the 1st down wave portion of a bull/bear market as "disbelief" or "speculation". After the completion of Wave1 and subsequent correction (Wave2), we'll begin Wave3 to the downside. Granvilled called that "belief".... the recognition wave. That is, we come to understand the "why" of it all. Next will come the Wave4 correction.... to be followed by the Wave5 down. Granvilled called that "overbelief".... that is "conviction about the negatives and downside... and with the expectation/fear that it still has a long way to go down".

So... if that's anywhere near the deal this time, the bottom is still a long way away.... both in time and price.

FWIW...

Thats pretty interesting Scat. Did that play out as advertised in 2007 or any other bear?

 

[Cuddles]

Thats pretty interesting Scat. Did that play out as advertised in 2007 or any other bear?

Looks like it nailed the crypto bubble pretty well. Dismissed it as bs back then

 

[Scataphagos]

Thats pretty interesting Scat. Did that play out as advertised in 2007 or any other bear?

Years ago I studied EW. Even got a software program for it. EW devotees sometimes think they can describe and trade "every wiggle" with EW. I never found that myself. But the notion of "5 Wave" patterns is real. There is also the "rule of alternation". In a 5 wave pattern, there will be two major corrections. The rule says they will be different from each other. That is, one may be an "a-b-c flat" (which looks like what we've had this time), but the other will be some other type. Often times, that will be a triangle of "a-b-c-d-e" form... there are other kinds also.

So... if my potential read is correct, we're only half-way in the 1st of 3 legs down*. EWs always leave more potential possibilities than you'd like, but as time and waves play out possibilities are eliminated one-by-one until there are only 1 or 2 left.

*The major(only?) rule about the size of each down leg... is that W3 can't be the smallest. So if you're trying to read the wave count and yours has a 3rd wave smaller than both 1 & 5, that's not correct and you need to reconsider.