The market is seeing something we dont see yet—

southall said:
The fed began to raise rates 3 years ago (December 2015). And the DOW still went up 10,000 points.
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That was with a STABLE president who had been in office for 7 years at that point, Yellen yellin' about nothing, etc etc etc, global growth showing all signs pointing GO...

What I tend to wonder is...

Is there a NEED for a recession? Why does it HAVE to happen every so often? What is wrong with slow and steady growth over hundreds of years?
 
neke said:
The same reason there is no investment that has grown 1% per year real compounded since the time of Christ
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Is that a fact (serious question, I don't know if there is any tangible data going beyond the middle ages)?
 
neke said:
The same reason there is no investment that has grown 1% per year real compounded since the time of Christ
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HAHHA, say that to the Vatican! Probably one of the richest coffers on earth, because they are exempt from tax!
 
canoe said:
i don't think it's so much that there's something ominous lurking in the shadows that hasn't shown its face yet like 2008.

if we didn't have stupid president nagging like a child about how the Fed is ruining his economy (which he is still doing today on twitter btw...) and all the other reckless things he's done like tariffs, shutting down gov't over a fucking wall, pulling out of syria then firing Mattis 2 months early out of spite b/c he got his feelings hurt over a letter....etc., the swings wouldn't be as wild as they have been lately.

think about how dysfunctional the US gov't is right now. we have no secretary of defense, no attorney general, no chief of staff with Trump currently wanting to fire the Fed Chair. the sec def replacement nominee is a military industrial complex corporate shill with no military experience at all which decreases confidence in the US's ability to bring order around the world.

the mnuchin stunt today only fanned the flames that trump ignited.

just enjoy the shitshow. the volatility those idiots are creating with their stupid actions only benefits us traders. it's pretty much a trader's paradise right now, esp as a futures trader.

and there's no reason to feel bad shorting the US economy. the people most affected by a tanking economy here in the states are the people who voted for trump, esp the farmers with the whole soybean debacle going on right now with china. what goes around, comes around. just enjoy the show with trump supporters scrambling around like chickens with their heads cut off while we line our pockets.

a democracy only works efficiently when the populace is well-educated. the US has some of the smartest ppl in the world but as a whole, americans are some of the dumbest in the world of developed countries. the electoral college will assure that the dumbest subset of our people will continue to have outsized represention, which will assure that we will continue to get black swan results like the one we're seeing right now.

so what you're seeing right now is just a symptom of something that was a long time coming.
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ROFLMAO....things must be pretty shakey if Mr T can accomplish all of the above by complaining about Fed...slapping on a few tariffs..pouting over a supposed imaginary wall...pulling out of pipsqueak syria...and firing somebody who doesn’t agree with him....so on and so on....Mr T caused all the problems? Good grief...give me a break! If it was a long time coming then doesn’t that well.. kinda of well..shall I say...shift a tad bit (or alot) of the blame off Mr. T?

Probally best to start pointing fingers at events around December 23, 1913. Then add interventionism and globalism...ah yes don’t forget ....a populace that has their head screwed on backwards.

PS don’t forget the armchair ..not so bright...no common sense...economists we have spouting off their useless rhetoric in the ivory halls of our universities. Let us see. Did I miss anything? Oh yes, someone will undoubtedly shift a large part of the blame onto the so called “deplorables”.
 
Overnight said:
That was with a STABLE president who had been in office for 7 years at that point, Yellen yellin' about nothing, etc etc etc, global growth showing all signs pointing GO...

What I tend to wonder is...

Is there a NEED for a recession? Why does it HAVE to happen every so often? What is wrong with slow and steady growth over hundreds of years?
More...
Now Fedex! A stable president? Don’t you know WHO creates recessions? Their name starts with F........

However..in spite of it all we aren’t in a recession...yet.
 
Last edited:
Let's see... the Fed decided to unload their balance sheet, in the Fall of 2017, that expanded from QE years, interest rate (real) finally looks like it's getting out of negative territory, political uncertainty(including China trade wars), high PE ratio than historical average in the markets, what else did they usually look at for needing a correction?

The unlimited money printing ended (or paused? who know what they will do) so there isn't enough money to push the market higher is how I see it. Trump probably just aggrevated it and made the future look uncertain, rather than full on cause it.
 
volpri said:
Now Fedex! A stable president? Don’t you know WHO creates recessions? Their name starts with F........

However..in spite of it all we aren’t in a recession...yet.
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GDP growth and the job market hasn't confirmed down trend.... so... yet...
 
NeedToLearn said:
Let's see... the Fed decided to unload their balance sheet, in the Fall of 2017, that expanded from QE years, interest rate (real) finally looks like it's getting out of negative territory, political uncertainty(including China trade wars), high PE ratio than historical average in the markets, what else did they usually look at for needing a correction?

The unlimited money printing ended (or paused? who know what they will do) so there isn't enough money to push the market higher is how I see it. Trump probably just aggrevated it and made the future look uncertain, rather than full on cause it.
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As long as Petro dollar remains, nothing changes fed can print to unlimited. Oil will be weaning down in demand and supply going forward tho. It'll be at a ugly cross road in 20-30 years, likely ending in military stuff
 
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