The Market is going to CRASH!

[ElCubano]

Fluff lol

 

[JSOP]

Hello all,

This is a thought that came to mind based on everything that is happening. I am not a financial advisor nor is this financial advice. Here are my thoughts on the environment and what we could be in store for and want to hear your thoughts.

Shorting the banks/brokerages and the overall market and here is why.

Brokers/Banks and Retail traders will be on the hook for massive margin calls on retail investors. Also watch the overall market go down because people will have to sell their portfolios to cover said margin calls. People that over leveraged may have to file for bankruptcy, lose their house, lose everything. Since options expire weekly/monthly this could go on for a while and cause massive financial strain.

This is only my opinion and not financial advice.

What are your thoughts?

It's a thought and a valid thought. And all of the MM's and clearinghouses. Because they will be on the hook too. So their financial soundness comes to question as well. IMHO.

 

[KCalhoun]

The market's going to crash because I made a top call January 9th

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-may-be-coming-my-top-call-2-1-9-2021.354587/

It's only the second time in my life I've made a top call. The first time was right before February / March crash last year. But Monday may be a headfake bull trap before end of week selloff

 

[maxinger]

This is bad news not because

investors will be losing tons and tons of money

But

traders will find it very hard to earn tons and tons of money.

When the market crashes, its movement will be chaotic,
erratic, spiky, messy, jerky ....

 

[nattybumppo]

Shorting banks?

Ok Mike Baum.

My thoughts too. The Federal Reserve was CREATED (by the bankers) to protect the banking system as a direct result of the financial fiasco of 1907. That is its primary function. Goldman-Sachs executives routinely rotate in and out of White House service. The financial sector is the biggest and most politically influential sector of the economy. Sure, bank stock prices fluctuate up and down like normal stocks, and you might get lucky and short a Bear Stearns, but generally speaking, there's an invisible floor under the big banks.

 

[nattybumppo]

traders will find it very hard to earn tons and tons of money. When the market crashes, its movement will be chaotic, erratic, spiky, messy, jerky ....

Right, that's because of short squeezes that occur from time to time during bear markets. But if one can ride it out, perhaps with puts, the rewards can be substantial. Or one can just go to cash while waiting for the market to bottom and commence its recovery (assuming we don't do a Japan, which still has not recovered its 1990 highs on the Nikkei).

 

[adamovicm]

My opinion: if we see a `crash` this year, it will more likely be up to 10% correction.

Reasoning: I'm a small personal investor who missed great opportunities because I was kind of lazy and not ready for risks (I thought it would be a good idea to buy google stock in 2007 and Amazon stock in 2009, lol). However, my personal wealth increased significantly in the past 15 years, and as bank interest rates are at all time lows in my country, I've decided to start trading stocks.

What are see in the stock market is that there are companies having decent dividend i.e. 0.8-1.3% in IT, pharma companies 2-4%, oil 5-8%... even when speaking of dividends, a small retail investor cannot get that kind of interest from the bank. More important, it's more likely its collatelar (bank stock) will increase.

Japan example suggests that low interest rates are here to stay.

Big crash could happen only in the case of a major financial fiasco, i.e. major defaults caused by derivates, USA bans US brokers of trading in Hong Kong stock exchange. Shorting, unfounded swaps look like a very risky assets.

 

[David's faith]

My opinion: if we see a `crash` this year, it will more likely be up to 10% correction.

Reasoning: I'm a small personal investor who missed great opportunities because I was kind of lazy and not ready for risks (I thought it would be a good idea to buy google stock in 2007 and Amazon stock in 2009, lol). However, my personal wealth increased significantly in the past 15 years, and as bank interest rates are at all time lows in my country, I've decided to start trading stocks.

What are see in the stock market is that there are companies having decent dividend i.e. 0.8-1.3% in IT, pharma companies 2-4%, oil 5-8%... even when speaking of dividends, a small retail investor cannot get that kind of interest from the bank. More important, it's more likely its collatelar (bank stock) will increase.

Japan example suggests that low interest rates are here to stay.

Big crash could happen only in the case of a major financial fiasco, i.e. major defaults caused by derivates, USA bans US brokers of trading in Hong Kong stock exchange. Shorting, unfounded swaps look like a very risky assets.

I think the same way, biggest eisk IMO is Deutsche Bank which is levered from the socks to the teeth with derivatives that bet on rising interest rates.
Besides that, if r/WSB is successfully squeezing silver shorts (which is to be determined in the following weeks) it might even rip fiat money apart. They predict silver could go to 500$+ if it plays out...