The market has switched from inflation theme to recession theme

[David's faith]

I found out, that things which are usually negatively correlated such as equities and Dollar strength are now broken. For me this is the signal that the market is now flipping theme from inflation to recession finally.

What that means:

• bad macro data is now finally bad data
• blue chips are expected to do better than last year (maybe this is the reason Techs have not fallen as far as they should due to interest rates)
• Get your hands into alcohol, tobacco, staples and utilities stocks and get out of energy, finance and small caps in general. Security over growth occasions
• Dollar is king again (for Forexeers)
• Commodities are in their majority expected to fall (maybe without oil, haven't dug into it yet) soon
• Oil prices and it's derivatives and also their supply shortages are now more important than interest rates.
• Used cars, real estate and gold are expected to have a worse year than last year

If you found that list useful or have additions: maybe share some tipps with me, I'm always keen to learn

Good luck. May the ticks be with you

 

[countryBoy641]

No I don't think so.
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"
Milton Friedman

The inflation surge is already in the cards.
$30 Trillion of direct U.S. Treasury debt + ~$100Trillion of future entitlements already promised.

There is no "jawboning" that the FED can do to reverse this.
All the cheerleaders (e.g. Cathie Wood types) can do is say that gains in productivity will offset the inflation.
Not happening. Where are all the self-driving trucks? etc.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Yea I knew that nonsense of "low unemployment reading makes stocks go down" and vice versa couldn't last forever.

Btw, I have over $1000 already this morning!

 

[David's faith]

No I don't think so.
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"
Milton Friedman

The inflation surge is already in the cards.
$30 Trillion of direct U.S. Treasury debt + ~$100Trillion of future entitlements already promised.

There is no "jawboning" that the FED can do to reverse this.
All the cheerleaders (e.g. Cathie Wood types) can do is say that gains in productivity will offset the inflation.
Not happening. Where are all the self-driving trucks? etc.

100Trillion of future entitlements already promised. --> can you explain what data this is? I'm glad to hear your opposing oppinion, I will check it.

 

[notagain]

Demand destruction lowers inflation, savings down, credit card use up = stagflation.
Omnibus bill, gov't spending will support the market.
The more the recession, the sooner the rate cuts = sideways market.

 

[murray t turtle]

%%
TRUE\
used cars tend to go down in value+ go down again/certain exceptions apply
Typical bear rally.
Female asset manager asked ''a saint Nik rally??""
WE will not really know that until ,Christmas week. Merry Christmas + happy Hannukah.

 

[countryBoy641]

100Trillion of future entitlements already promised. --> can you explain what data this is? I'm glad to hear your opposing oppinion, I will check it.

I think that is mostly the untallied burdens on safety net programs of Social Security and Medicare, the latter being the biggest budget buster.
Not even close. Compared to Medicare, Social Security is a tiny nickel and dime program.
And of course, there are people who even now want to expand the converage of Medicare to other than 65+.

 

[murray t turtle]

I think that is mostly the untallied burdens on safety net programs of Social Security and Medicare, the latter being the biggest budget buster.
Not even close. Compared to Medicare, Social Security is a tiny nickel and dime program.
And of course, there are people who even now want to expand the converage of Medicare to other than 65+.

%%
Exactly;
not sure i would call SS a nickle dime program/LOL
REALLY, the unthinkable could easily happen.
I DONT need no rockin' chair\
Geritol or your Medicare.
Maybe old\
but not impaired
Eskimo needs a Frigidaire\
like i need you Medicare-LOL -G Jones+ Patty Loveless Country Song>3.6 million video views

 

[zdreg]

I think that is mostly the untallied burdens on safety net programs of Social Security and Medicare, the latter being the biggest budget buster.
Not even close. Compared to Medicare, Social Security is a tiny nickel and dime program.
And of course, there are people who even now want to expand the converage of Medicare to other than 65+.

In the US you can still go bankrupt even if you have medicare. Its coverage is quited limited.

 

[countryBoy641]

In the US you can still go bankrupt even if you have medicare. Its coverage is quited limited.

I'd guess you are younger than 65.
And you haven't actually requested medical procedures covered by Medicare.
Most health care providers have staff who are somewhat expert on Medicare benefits.
It's very seamless.
(no idea about people claiming bankruptcy).
When people say "limited coverage" they are usually referring to Medicaid (completely different program).