The market conditions are similar to 1999

[OptionGuru]

The market conditions are similar to 1999

• To those who were trading at that time you know what to expect.
• To those who were not trading at that time hang on to your panties.

Stay long (DIA, SPY, QQQ) and get ready for a strong uptrend going into 2017 - similar to 1999/2000.

 

[JackRab]

Can you elaborate on it? Why are the conditions similar?

 

[i960]

What? In '99 there was an entirely "new" paradigm (yes it was obviously BS) for people to believe in along with completely normal interest rates. Totally different drivers even if the charts may bear a shallow resemblance.

Not substantially similar IMO.

 

[JackRab]

.....even if the charts may bear a shallow resemblance....

So you think @OptionGuru means the charts are the same... yeah that's what I thought... not exactly the same as similar underlying conditions....

 

[i960]

In 99 people were buying because they believed in it. In 2016 people are buying because they're forced to (or believe they can outrun the next guy).

 

[rmorse]

The market conditions are similar to 1999

Not sure why you say that.

In 1999, I was an option market maker on the Amex. I had taxi drivers and store salesman telling me what stocks they like and how easy it is easy to make money in the market. They would tell me how they buy a stock or some options every morning and make easy money by days end. I was making markets in options where the underlying stock had a market cap of $5B to $20B with $10mm to $100mm in sales with net company losses and needing more cash to continue. I don't see that today. I'd like to know what industry you see this type of excess in today. In 2007, it was real estate. In 1999/2000 it was techology. Today?

Bob

 

[lovethetrade]

The market conditions are similar to 1999

I don't think the conditions now are similar to 99 or 2006. 99 was a dot-com/tech boom, companies were massively overvalued and any business with a URL was expected to make huge profits. 2007 was due to poor lending practices, mortgage securitisation and overvalued real estate.

In 2016, everything is humming along nicely. We might see a decent correction shortly but don't anticipate an event like 99 or 2007 happening anytime soon. There's too much innovation, central banks, governments and banks have tightened up their operations and borrowing/lending practices, the industry is much more regulated, globalisation is continually delivering more value and efficiency, emerging markets are becoming more advanced and people are becoming more educated and adaptable.

 

[JackRab]

I would like to take this:

.. central banks, governments and banks have tightened up their operations and borrowing/lending practices....

this:

.. the industry is much more regulated...

and this:

...people are becoming more educated and adaptable.

with a few grains of salt please...

 

[ElCubano]

Stocks would be down 30 points by lunch only to be up 30 EOD. across the board.

 

[rmorse]

Stocks would be down 30 points by lunch only to be up 30 EOD. across the board.

I traded one stock that was around $35 that traded in a 2 to 6 point range almost everyday.