The market can stay...

[nooby_mcnoob]

You trade by looking at the rear view mirror?

I am just looking at the metrics, don't worry if you're long there is a huge leg up coming IMO

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I've never seen this definition of a bull/bear market. I like it:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/224647-what-does-a-falling-p-e-ratio-mean


Bull markets are periods of P/E expansion. During Bulls, investors are willing to pay increasingly more for each dollar of earnings;

Bear markets are periods of P/E contraction. Investors demand more earnings for each dollar of share price they are willing to pay.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I might redefine that as 'you can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'. Blaming the market for irrationality is in practice used as an excuse for being wrong. I am actually correct but the market isn't as right as me!

That's certainly true if you're a short term trader without deep pockets. Your opinion of market value/movement is irrelevant as long as the market is doing the exact opposite and continues doing so.

On the other hand - there are investors/speculants who actually was right when the market was wrong and managed to stay solvent until they were proven right. For example, Dr Michael Burry (provided The Big Short is factually correct) who shorted the housing market leading up to the financial crisis in 08.

 

[clacy]

The market is breaking out to new highs after considerable resistance, Fed is dovish, and Europe is considering new stimulus.

What’s not to like about stocks?

 

[ground zero]

Yes, the LOLN takes over. But who can ever know when that time is? We're in a strange time, Mr. S200.

Yes, the LOLN takes over. But who can ever know when that time is? We're in a strange time, Mr. S200.

I agree completely. It's strange enough that it has forced me to consider the possibility that the markets have crossed over into some sort of "new normal", where the parameters that used to have a high degree of reliability, don't necessarily apply anymore.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

The market is breaking out to new highs after considerable resistance, Fed is dovish, and Europe is considering new stimulus.

What’s not to like about stocks?

Being at ATH is not necessarily any indicator except "it'll keep hitting ATH until it doesn't." And it's been hitting ATH since 2013.

All that being said... Here are some other times where it hit ATH for a few years. Purely by that metric, we have a few more years to run.

Most recent times

 

[zdave83]

My question is when is a market fully valued?
Because it seems to most there is no such thing as a fully valued market anymore ..it's just buy and keep buying. Law of large numbers eventually takes over. No?

I believe the challenge is that no one is sure how to determine where the market is "fully valued" in an environment of continuing ultra-low (compared to past) interest rates. One reference point may be Japan's markets over the past 20-30 years.

 

[murray t turtle]

What's so irrational about it?

%%
Unusual V bottom around Christmas week. Double V V is more common.But once it clears a 200 day ma,i seldom see it as irrational.

 

[Amahrix]

It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right. Ed Seykota

 

[murray t turtle]

The market is breaking out to new highs after considerable resistance, Fed is dovish, and Europe is considering new stimulus.

What’s not to like about stocks?

%%
Yes, all that;
+ price above 200 day moving average. NOT a prediction, not long
TSLA .