The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

Joe_D · Jul 14, 2017

OddTrader said:
The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120
By Nick Cunningham - Jul 10, 2017

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Major-Wildcard-That-Could-Send-Oil-To-120.html

Q
But the one major wildcard for oil prices is geopolitics, which, however unlikely given the degree of supply overhang that still exists, could send prices up. But how high? The latest blockade of Qatar, which has mushroomed into a regional political crisis in the Middle East, would have caused a severe spike in oil prices in the past, even though Qatar is a relatively minor producer. However, the simmering standoff not only failed to register, but occurred at a time of falling oil prices.

If a crisis involving heavyweight oil producers was shrugged off by the market, it is hard to imagine some other event causing a sharp price spike, even if more barrels were on the line.
UQ

All the NOISE above is already embedded in PRICE. However its best to ignore Price and just ask the Palestinians

Mtrader · Jul 14, 2017

fordewind said:
I wish it will!That gives our poor country another shot.

You mean the billionaires. They are used to rob all the natural resources and never have enough.

Joe_D · Jul 16, 2017

toc said:
In my experience predicting changes in prices due to some fundamental news events does not work out.

In other words, the price still changes but not due to the anticipated "news event or development".

This means while analysts are mentioning Qatar but some other geopolitical/economics/technological event results in the price movement.

Oil prices to $80 seem likely as per my books.

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready. "I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it's the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others" he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants.

"See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!"
"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss mathematics!"

"And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!"
"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss physics!"

"And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!"
"That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!"

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert's hand and shake it. "I'm your last room mate and I'm sorry, but my IQ is only 80."
Albert smiles back at him and says, "So, where do you think Oil prices & Interest rates are headed?"

OddTrader · Jul 16, 2017

Joe_D said:
Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready. "I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it's the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others" he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants.

"See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!"
"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss mathematics!"

"And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!"
"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss physics!"

"And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!"
"That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!"

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert's hand and shake it. "I'm your last room mate and I'm sorry, but my IQ is only 80."
Albert smiles back at him and says, "So, where do you think Oil prices & Interest rates are headed?"

Then the man replied: "What a coincidence! Before I came back here, there was a guy with IQ 60 standing just outside today asked me exactly the same question!"

OddTrader · Jul 16, 2017

Q
Big Oil Just Woke Up to Threat of Rising Electric Car Demand
By Jess Shankleman
July 14, 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...p-to-the-threat-of-rising-electric-car-demand

“What oil companies and car companies are saying is diverging,” said McKerracher, the BNEF analyst. “This is a trillion dollar question, and somebody is going to be wrong.”
UQ

Joe_D · Jul 18, 2017

JackRab said:
So you're saying a commodity like oil doesn't move on macro news?

It moves in the direction of its dominant trend - macro news might cause a tiny flutter, soooo tiny that you would a magnifying glass to see it. Current dominant trend = down. Rally is counter trend.
Target $18 by Dec 2018

Overnight · Jul 18, 2017

Joe_D said:
...
Target $18 by Dec 2018

ROFL

JackRab · Jul 24, 2017

Joe_D said:
It moves in the direction of its dominant trend - macro news might cause a tiny flutter, soooo tiny that you would a magnifying glass to see it. Current dominant trend = down. Rally is counter trend.
Target $18 by Dec 2018

And what causes dominant trends to change then? A butterfly flipping it's wings in Iceland?

Joe_D · Jul 24, 2017

JackRab said:
And what causes dominant trends to change then? A butterfly flipping it's wings in Iceland?

Welcome to TREND mechanics 101:

When no more buyers but only/more sellers the dominant trend reverses = run out of northbound fuel

YAWN!

JackRab · Jul 24, 2017

Joe_D said:
Welcome to TREND mechanics 101:

When no more buyers but only/more sellers the dominant trend reverses = run out of northbound fuel

YAWN!

And what causes there to be more volume on the buy-side than on the sell-side? (or vice versa)