The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

[OddTrader]

The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120
By Nick Cunningham - Jul 10, 2017

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Major-Wildcard-That-Could-Send-Oil-To-120.html

Q
But the one major wildcard for oil prices is geopolitics, which, however unlikely given the degree of supply overhang that still exists, could send prices up. But how high? The latest blockade of Qatar, which has mushroomed into a regional political crisis in the Middle East, would have caused a severe spike in oil prices in the past, even though Qatar is a relatively minor producer. However, the simmering standoff not only failed to register, but occurred at a time of falling oil prices.

If a crisis involving heavyweight oil producers was shrugged off by the market, it is hard to imagine some other event causing a sharp price spike, even if more barrels were on the line.
UQ

 

[fordewind]

I wish it will!That gives our poor country another shot.

 

[Superstar2317]

Personally, I think oil analysts are, the worst! I remember, the $146bbl, as I traded USO calls, at the time...it was volatile. Then when it was in the $80's was calls for $160bbl only for it to fall. Fast forward, and it was under $30, they were calling for $15bbl, went straight up to mid-$55's. Last month, was calls for $30bbl, had 8 straight up days. I think $100bbl is gone for good as fracking 2.0 has made Bakken producers profitable in the $40's/$50's instead of $60's. There is a lot of spigots that can come online. Driving habits are changing with millenials not even having driving licenses, Uber and self-driving vehicles coming. Sure, slack has always been tight with only 1-2M extra barrels produced, per day, that offline would cause, a spike, but US is a net exporter of oil and with that 600M bbl strategic reserve we'd be fine long enough for production to ramp up. It'd be great cause, my CHK, would triple, and my FCX, would pop as well but I'd believe it when I see it. Maybe, when Skynet comes online?jk lol

 

[toc]

In my experience predicting changes in prices due to some fundamental news events does not work out.

In other words, the price still changes but not due to the anticipated "news event or development".

This means while analysts are mentioning Qatar but some other geopolitical/economics/technological event results in the price movement.

Oil prices to $80 seem likely as per my books.

 

[Overnight]

...

Oil prices to $80 seem likely as per my books.

*sighs* OK, here is a prediction you can bank on. CL will never hit -$0.01 per barrel.

There, I just won the Internet.

Seriously...WHEN is oil going to hit $80 per bbl? Tomorrow, or in 2021?

Poppycock.

 

[JackRab]

In my experience predicting changes in prices due to some fundamental news events does not work out.

In other words, the price still changes but not due to the anticipated "news event or development".

This means while analysts are mentioning Qatar but some other geopolitical/economics/technological event results in the price movement.

Oil prices to $80 seem likely as per my books.

So you're saying a commodity like oil doesn't move on macro news?

 

[Stock Trader Lance J]

The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120
By Nick Cunningham - Jul 10, 2017

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Major-Wildcard-That-Could-Send-Oil-To-120.html

Q
But the one major wildcard for oil prices is geopolitics, which, however unlikely given the degree of supply overhang that still exists, could send prices up. But how high? The latest blockade of Qatar, which has mushroomed into a regional political crisis in the Middle East, would have caused a severe spike in oil prices in the past, even though Qatar is a relatively minor producer. However, the simmering standoff not only failed to register, but occurred at a time of falling oil prices.

If a crisis involving heavyweight oil producers was shrugged off by the market, it is hard to imagine some other event causing a sharp price spike, even if more barrels were on the line.
UQ

The OPEC oil production deal is falling apart as Game Theory predicts. The fair market price of oil is in the mid to high 30's IMO. Below $40, we get US frackers shutting down and lowering the oil rigs count.

 

[toc]

*sighs* OK, here is a prediction you can bank on. CL will never hit -$0.01 per barrel.

There, I just won the Internet.

Seriously...WHEN is oil going to hit $80 per bbl? Tomorrow, or in 2021?

Poppycock.

Next six months at most, might hit before that.

 

[FreakofNature]

The days of the black gold are done

 

[zdreg]

I wish it will!That gives our poor country another shot.

what country are you referring to? Venezuela?