The MAGA Recession

exGOPer said:
Show me the numbers, given your penchant for pulling stuff out of your ass and making unprovable claims, I can't believe any of your claims.

By the way Colorado posted some great GDP numbers while Republicans were run out of office in the mid-terms.

LOL
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I’m not the one who posts misleading statistics.

The pot law changes in CO seem to have helped the Democrats in more ways than one.

As usual, Republican policies create a favorable business environment, the economy does well, voters get comfortable, then after a while voters fall for the the Leftist Shared Responsibility ploy when the economy has a setback due to economic cycles.

Looking forward to us cycling the poor Republican Southern states vs the economic hopelessness in long term Democratic controlled inner cities again. Not. Want to repost some misleading statistics for me to tear into directly?
 
maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Looking at the Dry Baltic Index as shown on bloomberg.com, I see maritime shipping rates are nearing 12 month lows, Spot market available loads for truckng is almost 40% below peaks according to landstaronline.com, pervasive weakness of industrial commodities, and heavy selling in the consumer durables as well as industrial sectors leave me actually hoping for 1 to 2 percent GDP growth rates going forward.

The Federal Reserve historically has been accommodative in the third year of an Presidential election cycle, usually resulting in solid stock market performance and help for the economy. It looks increasingly likely the US economy will need some help, lots of help such that even a trade deal with China may not cure. A significant of the problem is Demographics in developed countries.

Politically, if this results in Leftists gaining control of the Senate and the Presidency, the economic problems for the US will only increase as can be expected whenever Radical Leftists are in power for an extended period of time.

Career politicians just don’t understand what motivates businesses to invest and hire people. Is their plan to scare off businesses and make everyone a Government worker? How has that worked historically in other countries? How was the standard of livng, civil rights, and one’s ability to improve their families situation been in these countries? Why do you think these Communist countries did not have an immigration problem? Tax and spend does not work it the long run. And yes, the Federal budget deficit will grow at a faster rate under future Democratic leadership than even under Trump. You can quote me on that.

Democratic jewel California and its world class economy are seeing slower growth rates than nearby states where businesses and highly paid professionals are leaving in ever greater numbers in order to escape high taxes, traffic, and draconian regulations. Other Radical Leftist controlled places are even worse off.
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You started out pretty smart on this and sparked my interest because you Shiite the bed with your analysis of the American left and what drives investment.

First, the American left, or democrats have proven themselves to be better stewards of the American economy. The right is completely stuck on recreating Ronald Reagan’s economy despite the economic conditions being totally different.

The democrats have really taken economic policy seriously since Clinton and have presided over much stronger economies since than republicans.

Second, tax cuts only drive investment initially then falls off and traditional forces take over, namely growth. Democrats have hands down proven they are much better at anticipating what economies need for sustained growth. Whether it’s inveatment in education and technology or smart transportation, you name it the democrats have much better solutions than dodgey Republican lassaize-faire.
 
UsualName said:
You started out pretty smart on this and sparked my interest because you Shiite the bed with your analysis of the American left and what drives investment.

First, the American left, or democrats have proven themselves to be better stewards of the American economy. The right is completely stuck on recreating Ronald Reagan’s economy despite the economic conditions being totally different.

The democrats have really taken economic policy seriously since Clinton and have presided over much stronger economies since than republicans.

Second, tax cuts only drive investment initially then falls off and traditional forces take over, namely growth. Democrats have hands down proven they are much better at anticipating what economies need for sustained growth. Whether it’s inveatment in education and technology or smart transportation, you name it the democrats have much better solutions than dodgey Republican lassaize-faire.
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Bill Clinton was a great President and was steward over a great economy which he deserves much credit for.

Policy related economic changes lag implementation by a significant degree, usually by several years. This is a often forgotten point as it takes time for businesses to develop a sound investment strategy and to implement it. Lots of questions have to be answered such as where to expand, should we build new or find resale? Should we buy or rent property? Buying undeveloped land can take over a year just to clear regulatory hurdles such as feasibility studies, impact statements, environmental testing, and basic site development. For larger projects, this can take years before the actual facility gets completed. Evidence that some Leftist ET posters don’t realize this include comments that Trump’s tax cuts were not working after just two weeks after being enacted.

This lag between effective policy and actual results can be attributed those policy changes has caused certain US political leaders to be blamed for economic downturns that were not their fault as well as other leaders receiving credit they did not deserve. There is apparently evidence that the US economy was talked down during Bush, Sr administration for political reasons. Bush, Jr was mostly responsible for the Great Recession because he pressured the Federal Reserve to maintain excessive liquidity while speculation was running rampant and was further encouraged by financial institutions ignoring sound loan underwriting practices.

Trumps tax cuts and reduction of overbearing regulations encourages long term business investment. Political instability does not. Business investment results in more jobs. As more people get employed, there is more demand goods and services that require more business investment for a virtuous cycle. Again, this takes years. Complicating matters are that large group of heavy spenders known as the baby boomers are aging. The US and other developed countries are experiencing a long term demographic shift in population that will cause great dislocation in consumer spending patterns. It will take great leadership, cooperation, and genius for the world to avoid a lengthy depression.

To be more vivid, we need Trump’s leadership, Democratic and media cooperation, and the genius of world leading economists to avoid the economic, social, and geopolitical instabilities that a depression will bring.
 
Markets are cyclical, while the upturn started during Obama, performance was dismal at best during his term in office. Say what you want about Trump, the markets and business overall responded (technically or emotionally) to his Amercia First, deregulation platform.

The problem I see is Trump has claimed it, regardless of the actual drivers or timing, it's more of a bubble mindset in stocks as equities are over-valued having been pushed by cheap money. Sentiment has been high since 2016 but euphoria is giving way to anxiety the more the Fed tightens and natural timing comes into play.

Unfortunately Trump paraded this banner so he'll end up owning the slide.
 
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maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Bill Clinton was a great President and was steward over a great economy which he deserves much credit for.

Policy related economic changes lag implementation by a significant degree, usually by several years. This is a often forgotten point as it takes time for businesses to develop a sound investment strategy and to implement it. Lots of questions have to be answered such as where to expand, should we build new or find resale? Should we buy or rent property? Buying undeveloped land can take over a year just to clear regulatory hurdles such as feasibility studies, impact statements, environmental testing, and basic site development. For larger projects, this can take years before the actual facility gets completed. Evidence that some Leftist ET posters don’t realize this include comments that Trump’s tax cuts were not working after just two weeks after being enacted.

This lag between effective policy and actual results can be attributed those policy changes has caused certain US political leaders to be blamed for economic downturns that were not their fault as well as other leaders receiving credit they did not deserve. There is apparently evidence that the US economy was talked down during Bush, Sr administration for political reasons. Bush, Jr was mostly responsible for the Great Recession because he pressured the Federal Reserve to maintain excessive liquidity while speculation was running rampant and was further encouraged by financial institutions ignoring sound loan underwriting practices.

Trumps tax cuts and reduction of overbearing regulations encourages long term business investment. Political instability does not. Business investment results in more jobs. As more people get employed, there is more demand goods and services that require more business investment for a virtuous cycle. Again, this takes years. Complicating matters are that large group of heavy spenders known as the baby boomers are aging. The US and other developed countries are experiencing a long term demographic shift in population that will cause great dislocation in consumer spending patterns. It will take great leadership, cooperation, and genius for the world to avoid a lengthy depression.

To be more vivid, we need Trump’s leadership, Democratic and media cooperation, and the genius of world leading economists to avoid the economic, social, and geopolitical instabilities that a depression will bring.
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You’re really good at your analysis of conditions but it’s baffling to me that you think Trump is the solution.

Domestically, we need immigration to sustain our way of life. You brought up a very important point about the aging boomer cohort but didn’t recognize the biggest issue with their retirement is the strain it will put on our working population to support them through the rest of their days. Trump’s immigration policies will screw over that population and bankrupt this country.

You also rightly touch on many factors in selection of business expansion and brought up the virtuous cycle, which is good, but you only touched briefly on the consumer and only in the context of them being a byproduct of business when they are the driver of the consumption and thus the driver of expansion. Also, the consumer creates the market and businesses supply the market. Which brings me to the point of democrats support higher wages for workers which creates the virtuous cycle.

Tax cuts and deregulation actually prove to be diminishing over time in terms of promoting and sustaining growth. Wages are the key to a growth.
 
General Motors said it will cut production of slow-selling models and slash its workforce by roughly 15,000 jobs, mostly in Michigan and Ohio, Reuters reports.

“Cost pressures on GM and other automakers and suppliers have increased as demand waned for traditional sedans. The company has said tariffs on imported steel, imposed earlier this year by the Trump administration, have cost it $1 billion.”
 
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