The Luck Factor

somebody once asked me what my "edge" was. I told him, I don't have an "edge" I rely on luck. I beleive it is a force which can temporarily be harnessed, and a good trader protects himself from bad luck.
 
I wouldn't say I have an edge either. What I do have is discipline and able to manage my risk. Preserving capital allows you to stick around longer to place those 'lucky' trades.
 
Quote from dvst8:

I wouldn't say I have an edge either. What I do have is discipline and able to manage my risk. Preserving capital allows you to stick around longer to place those 'lucky' trades.
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+1 same here, 90% is money management, 10% is reading the market, skill is preserving capital, good trader survives bad luck, any trader makes money when luck is good
 
You may rely on good systems. but good systems will never explain how some one wins millions in a lottery.

No matter what the system you will not be able to win the power ball based on stats (You may if it builds up and your lucky enough to be able to take advantage of it )

Statistics say you wont win and you are just like any other person.
There fore the conclusion is that no one will win.

The slot machines up here are made to eat up money. I use them only to pass time. When I want to go I am hoping to loose to finish up. It is not a gamble. It is a quiet seat.

I don't keep track of how I do on them but it just seems that 30-70% of the time I at least quadruple my money on them. Remembering this estimate will probably kill the trend, lucky for me I don't remember what I are for breakfast.

Luck may not be a factor in trading. but things happen and they do not happen based on any system of statistics So how does one person win millions and the other does not? Where did the law that states that everything must be quantifiable go ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-The-brain-knows-whats-going-happen-does.html
 
Quote from Specterx:

The book is somewhat interesting but won't change your life. His basic conclusion is that 'lucky' people exhibit certain behaviors and attitudes that 'unlucky' people tend to lack: openness to new experiences, constant pursuit of new opportunities, readiness to take risks (pursuing a dream, starting a business, uprooting and moving across the country for a potentially better job, etc.), and of course a high level of sociability.

The most interesting bit I remember was when he discussed a survey of Princeton graduates at their 25th reunion, which found that those who reported the greatest life satisfaction had changed jobs much more frequently, and often started several businesses, compared to those who were not particularly happy with their lives.
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Student online dictionay defines luck ''as the accidental way things happen'' What a crock!!

My Dad taught me as a kid''accidents dont just happen son,,they are caused''=====================================

Of course if one enjoys being a victim;
luck can help justify that deception..

John Henry[trend follower] says what you call luck ,,i call a small sample,Amen:D :cool:
 
at anyrate, I got turned onto the book by first reading his subsequent book, "The Swiss Axioms."

If you want know what it was like growing up in Indiana before computers, cable, cnbc, and even FNN, and even Investors Daily, and your only contact with the outside world was The Wall Street Journal (which was widely available on every street corner in a newstand or paper machine), and Barrons which was published weekly (every word was mandantory reading) and Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week on Friday's on PBS, it is a good book.

I can't believe the kind of risks we took back then.

No wonder they called it gambling.

And I've seen enough to still have an enfatuation with luck.

What we don't understand we call "luck."

And to this day that's pretty much how biologists explain why one egg gets fertilized, and another doesn't.
 
So whats the cure for 5 years of no luck mixed with bad luck ?

Is it possible that my life just evens out to its mean a different rate ?
 
Quote from traitor786:

So whats the cure for 5 years of no luck mixed with bad luck ?

Is it possible that my life just evens out to its mean a different rate ?
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well, that was the point of the book. Some people have an attitude which just shuts them off from good luck.

I've talked about this many times. Set up your trading strategy up so it closes the door on bad luck, but keeps it wide open to good luck.

But, no matter how reasonable your strategy is, it is hard to overcome a bad attitude.

Harder than overcoming spread or commissions.

And bad luck isn't always as bad as it first seems. If it wasn't for some incredibly bad luck, I wouldn't be where I am today.

Sometimes, on a bad night, I wish I could go back in time and avoid all the bad luck. But then I look around and see how content and happy I am today and reconcile, "If it wasn't for all the bad luck, you wouldn't have all the good luck you have today."
 
Quote from dvst8:

The harder you work, the luckier you'll get.
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VERY untrue

It has to be a certain type of work. (there I go answering my own questions)

Socializing with others seems to be the luckiest thing one cna do for them selves.
 
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