The longer you play, the more likely you will die

the longer u trade , the more likely you blow up

  • True

  • False

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M

marketsurfer

the longer you trade, the more likely it is that you blow up-- ??

I was inspired to ask this question by Tony Robbins who says its true about any business--



True or False and why--
 
these are the questions you ask when you start out trading not with years of experience behind you

what did you do in that hedge fund of yours? i got a feeling you didn't handle the trading :thumbsdown:
 
Well, ask yourself:

John D Rockefeller, who by most accounts is the most successful businessman in U.S. history, how did his business turn out?

I know you are a fan of VN. For all his faults one of his best concepts was of never ending cycles. How does this theory fit in?

I am a Jim Simons fan, but perhaps Jim is a result of a perfect storm of coincidence?
 
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That's a good and interesting question.
It depends on how you play the game...if you're a bold and ambitious cowboy...then most inevitably the answer is yes. If you're a safe, conservative player...then you won't really make any progress.

It's not about the money. It's about the game between people." -- when you're first starting out from nowhere...you're kind of obsessed with the money...but after you have enough...that's when you really start to enjoy the game.

The Duke brothers in 1983...then in 1988. -- talk about a reversal of fortune.
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Man, seriously, read or reread Market Wizards.
You ll have an answer to your noobish question.
But after so many years of "trading" (marketing would be more appropriated), if you don't have the answer, just quit.

CM
 
marketsurfer said:
the longer you trade, the more likely it is that you blow up-- ??

I was inspired to ask this question by Tony Robbins who says its true about any business--

True or False and why--
More...
From my experience with trading and also system design I can confirm that.

But I combatted that problem in the design of my latest system, and found a solution (tested in simulations).
I very good remember that there was a nasty chance of about 2% getting a drawdown of about 30% within the year.
I concentrated myself on that problem and finally solved it; now the drawdown is less than 5%.
Unfortunately that system has not been live-tested yet because it requires a relatively big account, for diversification and applying of strategies.

But: I must admit that black swan events like the Flash Crash can still do some harm to any open position. Preventing that 100% is IMO impossible, unless you apply some costly hedging.

The rational explanation is simple: the longer the timeframe (ie. the longer you trade) the more of the total possibilities can and will happen in that time...
 
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The statement is only true if you fail to learn from your errors. Trading and life have similar parallels. Think of some thing that causes pain, if you keep doing it over and over who's the dumb ass ? :wtf:
Traders that are inherently negative will feel that the longer they trade the more likely they will blow up. On the other hand an optimist won't entertain such thoughts.
You gotta be an optimist in this game EOStory
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