July 8, 2005: Brendan Loy on Hurricane Dennis: "A direct hit on New Orleans by a major hurricane would, as we've discussed before, be very, very, very bad. Like 100,000 deaths bad. Like the complete destruction of an entire city bad."
August 25-26, 2005: Katrina hits South Florida.
August 26, 2005, 5:23 p.m.: Meteorologist Jeff Masters: "The threat of a strike on New Orleans by Katrina as a major hurricane has grown... It would be no surprise if later advisories shift the forecast track even further west and put Katrina over New Orleans."
August 26, 2005, 11:25 a.m.: Masters: "I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. ... New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away."
August 26, 2005, 1:57 p.m.: Brendan Loy: "At the risk of being alarmist, we could be 3-4 days away from an unprecedented cataclysm that could kill as many as 100,000 people in New Orleans.
August 26, 2005, 9:44 p.m.: Governor declares state of emergency.
August 26, 2005, 11:22 p.m.: Loy: "f I lived in New Orleans, I would definitely leave at this point. Tonight. Barring a major change in forecast, I expect the evacuation orders to come tomorrow." The order would not come for another 24 hours.
August 27, 2005, afternoon: Mayor Nagin says "this is not a test," "batten down the hatches" â but evacuation is still voluntary.
August 27, 2005, 7:34 p.m. Loy: "I can't emphasize enough what a bad decision I think it is for New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin to delay the mandatory evacuation until tomorrow morning... Will Ray Nagin go down in history as the mayor who fiddled while New Orleans drowned? Could be."
August 27, 2005, evening: Governor Blanco interrupts Mayor Nagin at dinner after President Bush appeals for a mandatory evacuation of the city, telling him to call the National Hurricane Center. He subsequently orders a mandatory evacuation for Sunday, 24 hours before landfall.
August 27, 2005, 9:16 p.m.: Masters: "New Orleans finally got serious and ordered an evacuation, but far too late. There is no way everyone will be able to get out of the city in time..." He places New Orleans' chances of being destroyed at 20 percent.
August 28, 2005, 4:31 p.m.: Loy says it may be too late for those who waited for the Mayor's order to evacuate.
August 28, 2005, 4:13 p.m. CDT: National Weather Service dispatch: "MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS... PERHAPS LONGER... AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE... WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS."
August 29, 2005: Hurricane Katrina makes landfall.
August 30, 2005: New Orleans levees fail, flooding the city.
machavel RedState