The Last Dance - my last attempt trading journal

[deepfkvalue]

Hey looking at your charts, it looks like you're trying to predict the tops and bottoms of reversals for your entries. Imo that's a tough game to play.

When I first started out many years ago I would do that too but found it required much larger stops, with less contracts and a larger bank roll so that your large stop is a small fraction of a % of your account. Especially with multiple trades a day, each stop needs to be less than 1% of bank roll because otherwise a sequence of losers in a single day will draw you down big time, and within a week you'll be devastated.

6 years ago I switched my trading strategy to riding with the move, instead of trying to time a reversal like it looks like in your two screenshots. Since then I have been profitable every year and trade for fulltime income. The key here is to remember not to time the bottom or tops, but that there is a lot of meat in between.

For example here's a quick look at ES 5 min chart from the last 12 hours. This right here is a text book ride the move entry my strategy on NinjaTrader took over night. Waited for large deviation from VWAP, then confirmation of reversal, then ate the meat of the move. For exit, trialing stop loss for scaling out of last contract. Over many years I've found the 5min chart works best for reducing noise, better than any tick chart.

Of course for overnight trading like this you'll want to be running on a VPS, and highly recommend www.ninjamobiletrader.com for that, half the price of speedytradingservers for double the performance.

so i had two trades in total today, both of them losers.

i will share my previous trades also, with entry and exit points.

i entered a short at ON resistance, price shot through me, stopped me out and went south.

i entered long, on the 50% retracement of that move and got stopped out again, after stopping me out
market turned.

down 42 € for today.

i think in the trades i make, i get the overall picture but my timing is not good.
in the trades i took so far, i would be better off putting my entry where my stop loss would be and then place my stop loss after that. thats a common pattern i see when i analyze my previous trades.

in the second screenshot you can see that the launching point of yesterdays directional move acted as support on retest. thats something i noticed in the ES and also in other markets.
i could go long on a retest, unfortunately i was not at my desk at that time.

 

[geth03]

@deepfkvalue
thanks for the comment.

yeah, i tend to trade for reversals.
from analyzing various amounts of charts, i came to the conclusion that some levels/zones keep holding price moves at least for a tradable bounce. i attached a screenshot.

what i could not figure out so far is how to trade them properly,
if i want to minimize risk, i need to put entry points wider away from level zone extremes, which can lead to no trades, but also that way i can put my SL far away, so if get stopped out, i know that my trade idea is invalidated.
if i enter aggresively, my SL is triggered before the trade idea is invalidated, see yesterdays screenshot.
if i put my SL further away, my risk-reward becomes less than 2R, which can on the long run not make the strategy profitable at all.

otherwise, if i wait for price action confirmation, like price returning in a certain manner, once again,
my R gets skewed.

i am kind of trying to figure out if i can make rule based trading decisions based on those levels.
i think it can not be coincidence that price turns/bounces off those zones. maybe i am just interpreting more than there is, i don't know.

 

[deepfkvalue]

@deepfkvalue
thanks for the comment.

yeah, i tend to trade for reversals.
from analyzing various amounts of charts, i came to the conclusion that some levels/zones keep holding price moves at least for a tradable bounce. i attached a screenshot.

what i could not figure out so far is how to trade them properly,
if i want to minimize risk, i need to put entry points wider away from level zone extremes, which can lead to no trades, but also that way i can put my SL far away, so if get stopped out, i know that my trade idea is invalidated.
if i enter aggresively, my SL is triggered before the trade idea is invalidated, see yesterdays screenshot.
if i put my SL further away, my risk-reward becomes less than 2R, which can on the long run not make the strategy profitable at all.

otherwise, if i wait for price action confirmation, like price returning in a certain manner, once again,
my R gets skewed.

i am kind of trying to figure out if i can make rule based trading decisions based on those levels.
i think it can not be coincidence that price turns/bounces off those zones. maybe i am just interpreting more than there is, i don't know.

It's not easy, especially if you are taking every potential zone reversal and the profit target is tight. A tighter profit target will naturally lead to a higher win rate, all else equal. But your overall expectancy can go down.

You could try to add additional context like filters on top to reduce the number of zone reversals.

It's difficult because with historical data it is easy to see the zones, and I agree there is a profitable trading strategy around them. But trading them live as they happen is much harder. Try to draw the zones and keep them on your chart if they are wrong. Then after the entire day, analyze all of your correct and wrong zones, and think about what you could have done differently to avoid drawing the wrong zones.

Personally I was never able to do it either. Instead switched to confirmation after a zone reversal, and also filtered out zone reversals to only where it has a large VWAP deviation. The filtering down allowed to greatly increase profit target, and ultimately using trailing stop loss instead of a fixed target. This led to a much greater increase to RR.

I don't know how true this is anymore, but legendary futures trader Paul Tudor Jones is famous for saying he looks for 5:1 opportunities. Google "paul tudor jones 5 to 1" if you haven't already read about it.

 

[geth03]

yeah thats right, in hindsight, everything looks crystal clear, but in realtime, calls are not that clear.

i didn't think about filtering trades based on the VWAP deviation, i have the 1 and 2 Std on my chart, but i looked at them as sort of a momentum gauge, and in directional type of days the 24h VWAP likely acts as S/R.
( see attached screenshot with VWAP, the filter thing could be a thing xD)

over the weekend i will analyze the filter thing and also one other thing that i think is valuable information.
thank you for giving me good tips and insight to your strategy.

yeah i know the legendary P.T. Jones. i have his documentary from 87' where he predicts the crash.
what a guy!

 

[newwurldmn]

Good thread TS....

Except for a few chosen ones, I think advanced math/quant skills is overrated...

That is coming from someone who was the head trader of Equity Derivatives at 2 major IB's,and started under a brilliant mathematician...

And FWIW,I look back now and realize I was a very good floor market maker,but average at best upstairs trader...nah,less than average...

I agree with the comments that we tend to overcomplicate things,and often seemingly "simpler" is better..

I think preservation of capital/money-risk management is paramount.You lack those,look for the exit door,or expect the market to show you it...

Past that,it really is up for grabs..You need to find and approach that works for your emotional makeup,find some edge(bare minimum not give away edge) and conquer your demons/overcome your weaknesses...

I will say there are a handful of people on this board who shared some very insightful thoughts,and truly "enlightened" me...But your eyes have to be open,and your ego checked...

Imho,you should consider working with a guy like Mark Minervini...At your stage of development, a proven mentor may be the ticket...

Or take the smart easy safer route and get a job on a trading desk ..

i am not a good flow trader.

i agree people put too much emphasis on math without understanding why or if the math is relevant.

to quote Jurassic park: your people spent so much time wondering if they could they didn’t stop to think if they should.

 

[Thor]

Look at the time stamps. You re-edited your post and are now trying to make me seem the fool. I DO NOT, NEVER HAVE, AND NEVER WILL, edit somone's quote and put words in that are not their own. That goes against every grain in my body.

If a post has been edited, in the right bottom corner there will be a line, "Last Edited: " just above "Reply"

Here is my original post

And here is my post as quoted by you

It is obvious who is telling the truth and who is lying.

If necessary, I can ask Baron or Magna to pull up the original edits, to prove you are trying to disparage me. Would you like me to do that?

Do it right now.
If a post has been edited, in the right bottom corner there will be a line, "Last Edited: " just above "Reply"

I've also asked Magna to confirm that my post has not been edited.

You just locked yourself in, nowhere left to run.

 

[geth03]

@Thor @Overnight
guys, come on. act like grown ups.
if you still want to argue about that do it via PM, please.

 

[taowave]

Got to ask...You were top 5 percent in what ??? You could spend 15 minutes instructing,student practices for hours and is up to your top 5 percent level??

Do more than 20 people participate in this activity???

Many years ago, I read a book on how to succeed at anything, written by an an unknown author but had some real nuggets of wisdom.
The most important factor that controls your success at anything is your knowhow.

None of us is trading the market, we are trading our knowledge of it. There is an old saying attributed to Tony Robbins -- Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.

Yet, there are many here who are doing exactly this, and I suspect you are too. I suggest you put this journal on hold, and go back to your courses and actually read them.
Yes, 95% of them are very average, but the 5% that have value can change your life.

I too took the same route as you, via courses, but I was lucky enough to connect with the right people and the right courses. Very recently, I found a nugget in an old trading book which has redefined how I look at trading.

The only reason you are not profitable is because you don't know what works. Nothing else.

There is a lot of BS out there that years and decades are needed to become a profitable trader. All of it is balls.
The transformation happens in a heartbeat, the moment you find the niugget

I am an expert at 4 skills. In one of them I used to be in the top 5% of the country and ironically, I can bring anyone up to my level with 15 minutes of instruction, and a few hours of practice. I've seen life from both sides of the fence, as a player and as a coach, which has given me some insights on how people think..

95% of people fail at many things because they are not willing to do what it takes. It usually boils down to money or hard work. They are not ready to pay or put in the hard work required.

People look at a gem as shit, because they got it free, and shit as a gem, because they paid through their nose for it. Such is the nature of the human beast.

My wife was an average cook when we got married and she decided that she wanted to improve drastically, so she bought loads of cookbooks and attended cooking classes. Net result - she became more knowledgeable but quality was the same.
After a few years of this I stepped in.

As a bachelor, I used to eat at a certain restaurant everyday, and over time got to know everyone from the owners to the cooks and waiters. I went to the restaurant and requested the head cook (he must have been about 70) to visit my home, teach my wife some cooking for which I paid him.

A few days later he visited and spoke with my wife for about an hour. After that her qualiy of cooking went through the roof.

So I asked her what he had taught, and she said that she had been doing a common mistake which he corrected. This of course raises the question, - why the loads of cooking books and classes didn't correct it?
She said that none of the books and classes had ever touched on this topic, which is very common in many skills.
Some of the most important knowledge is passed on only by word of mouth.

Do what you've always done and you'll get what you always got.

 

[Thor]

@Thor @Overnight
guys, come on. act like grown ups.
if you still want to argue about that do it via PM, please.

Hi geth03,
I never started it, he did.
There is nothing to continue now that the truth is out in the open for all to see..

In this post you said

@Thor
i am not really into that motivational speekers. i don't like Tony Robbins at all.
.

I never advised you to go to Tony Robbins . My advice to you was this

I suggest you put this journal on hold, and go back to your courses and actually read them.
Yes, 95% of them are very average, but the 5% that have value can change your life.

I too took the same route as you, via courses, but I was lucky enough to connect with the right people and the right courses. Very recently, I found a nugget in an old trading book which has redefined how I look at trading.

Got to ask...You were top 5 percent in what ??? You could spend 15 minutes instructing,student practices for hours and is up to your top 5 percent level??

Do more than 20 people participate in this activity???

In an individual sport participated in by over 50 countries.
Two of my ex students reached the top 10 of the national ranking after I coached them.


The key to everything is knowledge.

 

[taowave]

Not disputing the obvious value of knowledge,but no way is it the key to everything...
If that were true it would be a level trading field