The Last Dance - my last attempt trading journal

you are not the only contributor to the charity.......so they would no starve to death

hi Padu, do you recall the handle of the poster who was advocating about market always going up and knowing it and “not having a seat at the table “
 
Ah, I knew the last sentence would eventually come.... Lol.

Op shows a typical example of looking at the wrong things. High intelligence, analytical and constant looking at trading as a technology that has to be beaten to have an edge. I know a lot of traders spending years and years on this loop. Repeating the same mistake over and over again getting nowhere. I also have been there and done that. It took me some other roads to find what it is all about. I help now also other traders to get 'it'. I show them in real life how I do it. Although I did it for free, I charge now, just to filter the no' commitment kind of guys.
 
"what kind of information does the candle you watch on 5 min basis give you? is a large green bar information enough for you that can forecast the next minutes? i highly doubt it!"

If you don't think it can be done then you probably won't be able to do it.
 

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There is no easy answer on how to be successful in the financial market. First off, go watch The Winning Method of Market Wizards by Jack Schwager on youtube. There is no one method to be successful. The key to having a trading journal is the ability to go back and review each trade and learn from it. In that way, one can adjust the method and reduce losing trades. The process of documenting all the trades in a journal and adjusting the method so as to improve performance is continuous. Let's say, a saving of $100K, trade only $10K. Try to lessen the mental burden as much as possible. Be patient with the market and this will protect your capital. Keep doing and repeating the same mistakes will not lead to improvement. A shallow awareness of the market will very much depend on chance in order be successful.
 
The biggest problem is that you don't have proven track record.

If you have, paying you for the service is definitely worth it
Yeah, and if I shared my track record, the next thing is that it is false. Been there, done that. I trade real-time in front of their eyes. Nothing is more real then that.
 
(
So, the question is: why do hard working guys, previously some kind of successful in their lifes, loose money in the long run trading the markets intraday?

i don't know if i have the answer, but first let me share my experience with you:
i started watching markets in my early 20's. back then i was a mechanical engineer student. i am really good with numbers. i thought, my math skills could shed light to the chaotic moves in the markets. as a newbie .
Many years ago, I read a book on how to succeed at anything, written by an an unknown author but had some real nuggets of wisdom.
The most important factor that controls your success at anything is your knowhow.

None of us is trading the market, we are trading our knowledge of it. There is an old saying attributed to Tony Robbins -- Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.

Yet, there are many here who are doing exactly this, and I suspect you are too. I suggest you put this journal on hold, and go back to your courses and actually read them. o_O
Yes, 95% of them are very average, but the 5% that have value can change your life.

I too took the same route as you, via courses, but I was lucky enough to connect with the right people and the right courses. Very recently, I found a nugget in an old trading book which has redefined how I look at trading.

The only reason you are not profitable is because you don't know what works. Nothing else.

There is a lot of BS out there that years and decades are needed to become a profitable trader. All of it is balls.
The transformation happens in a heartbeat, the moment you find the niugget :D

I am an expert at 4 skills. In one of them I used to be in the top 5% of the country and ironically, I can bring anyone up to my level with 15 minutes of instruction, and a few hours of practice. I've seen life from both sides of the fence, as a player and as a coach, which has given me some insights on how people think..

95% of people fail at many things because they are not willing to do what it takes. It usually boils down to money or hard work. They are not ready to pay or put in the hard work required.

People look at a gem as shit, because they got it free, and shit as a gem, because they paid through their nose for it. Such is the nature of the human beast.

My wife was an average cook when we got married and she decided that she wanted to improve drastically, so she bought loads of cookbooks and attended cooking classes. Net result - she became more knowledgeable but quality was the same. :banghead:
After a few years of this I stepped in.

As a bachelor, I used to eat at a certain restaurant everyday, and over time got to know everyone from the owners to the cooks and waiters. I went to the restaurant and requested the head cook (he must have been about 70) to visit my home, teach my wife some cooking for which I paid him.

A few days later he visited and spoke with my wife for about an hour. After that her qualiy of cooking went through the roof.

So I asked her what he had taught, and she said that she had been doing a common mistake which he corrected. This of course raises the question, - why the loads of cooking books and classes didn't correct it?
She said that none of the books and classes had ever touched on this topic, which is very common in many skills.
Some of the most important knowledge is passed on only by word of mouth.

Do what you've always done and you'll get what you always got. :p
 
(please be aware that english is not my mother tounge, i will probably make mistakes,
but i think my english is sufficient that you understand what my point is)

Hi All,

this is my last attempt trying to master the markets, or at least to not blow out my account.
I will share my thoughts, my trades, it is a live account i am trading with, so no Sim or Demo trading BS.

First of all i want to share some thoughts with you:
I think nearly every beginning retail trader thinks that he is some sort of more intelligent than the average, loosing trader. I doubt, that anybody thinks, that he doesn't have the intellect to trade, but starts trading anyway.

I think, that guys starting trading can show any kind of proof that they are in some form of successful with either their profession or in any other competitive area, like sports.
Let us examine how one guy can excel at his profession. The first necessary condition that this guy needs to have, to stand out from the crowd, is some kind of talent. Obviously, you would not want to study mathematics if you were not able to solve basic differential equations. You would not want to become a doctor if you can't understand how the human body works. When you study at an university for example, the exams give you feedback on how good you are doing what a guy in this profession should be able to do. You are in a constant cyclical process of studying hard and proofing with exams that you are capable of exercising the profession. You have meetings with the professor that can give you feedback. You have fellow students that can give you feedback. The constant studying-feedback-cycle shows you if you are doing a good job. Now, the day comes when this guy graduates and finds a job. After a few years, he puts his knowledge in action. He becomes really good at it. Why? He built a foundation first and then learned on the job from a guy who has years of experience. This point is crucial. Through mistakes and errors he received feedback from the mentor and finally and hopefully he is in a position now, that he knows what he does.

I think, this type of guys start trading with high hopes, that, because of their previous success, if they put the needed effort in learning to trading, they too, can make money.

But what says empirical data about traders?
Statistics from brokers show that the majority of retail traders loose money trading. I read research papers that in spite of that large amount of traders loosing money intraday trading, there is a group of traders that make huge sums of money. This one research paper i read, concludes that the losses of the majority of day traders is correlated to trading frequency and volume, hence overtrading. The day traders, that make money trade less often intraday, and their relative intraday volume is much smaller, but profits much bigger. Obviously, these guys are in a way more patient.
I don't know though if they hold positions for greater profit targets or just pick the right spots to enter trades.
This research paper is from 2015 for KOSPI 200 futures.
here is the link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10293523.2012.11082543

So, the question is: why do hard working guys, previously some kind of successful in their lifes, loose money in the long run trading the markets intraday?

i don't know if i have the answer, but first let me share my experience with you:
i started watching markets in my early 20's. back then i was a mechanical engineer student. i am really good with numbers. i thought, my math skills could shed light to the chaotic moves in the markets. as a newbie, i started reading trading books. only technical analysis type of books. i read about candlesticks, candlestick patterns, candlestick correlations, trends, fibonaccis, indicators, intramarket correlations, market cylces, volume profile, market profile, orderflow, footprint, DOM trading, commitments of traders reports and 100 other stuff i can't recall right now.
i have tons of books and trading courses. i watched equity indexes, commodities, currencies and bond markets. i analyzed every market with every tool i learned.
Well, obviously, it didn't help much as you can imagine, otherwise i would sit on a sunny beach somewhere in the world, drink cocktails with my model girlfriend, and not write that journal in my homebase. (LOL)
to sum up, i have a bachelors degree in mechanical eng. and masters degree in chemical eng.
at work, i program simulation software with C++ that solve complex fluid flow phenomena
(highly complex partial differential equations)

so, why did i fail so hard, so far? do the tools not work or am i in reality an idiot?
i think the main problem is that i thought that the trading educators are some kind of successful mentors that can show me how to trade. how many trading courses do you know that show any kind
of success? track record? real money trading? ---> if you ask for any of that, you will not be accepted as student, how dare you? are the testimonials on the website not proof enough that we produce successful traders that print money faster than the FED? (again LOL)

i think that the markets are not, in the classical sense (see above) a place for constant feedback, that will enhance your performance, you will blow out accounts faster than you think.
the tools that every educator teaches are never ever going to predict market moves. how can it?
the markets are a two-way auction with dozenz of participants, how can any tool predict, when and why a guy throws in 1 lot, or 100 lots at market? how do you want to compete from your home with HFT's that are physically at the exchange for orderflow? can you pull your order faster than computers at the exchange that track every move in the correlated markets?
let's take the E-mini S&P futures. Algos track every tick in any other correlated market:
options, ETF's, fair value in underlying stocks, mispricing between contracts (micro ES).
they analyze the size and speed of orders in those markets SIMULTANIOUSLY. they analyze where they are in the qeue, what the probability is to get a fill, what the probability is to get an adverse selection, they can enter and exit at lightspeed!
what kind of information do you want to see in the Bookmap to compete with this super fast algos that are living in the moment, whereas you have a latency from your home to the exchange, which means you are seconds late to the party, which means years in terms of HFT time. how do you want to process all the information in your human brain? what kind of information does the candle you watch on 5 min basis give you? is a large green bar information enough for you that can forecast the next minutes? i highly doubt it! i highly doubt that any technical chart you get for free from your broker can help you with any prediction. i highly doubt that you lack the skill and money to compete with HFT's.

now you probably ask yourself, why i give trading a last shot. by no means i am addicted to trading. i hate it to loose. i already know what my chances for success are. i think there might be an edge for intraday traders, but i don't mean any technical stuff. i will soon post something related to my current approach. i think with good money management it can produce some nice profits.
i won't trade my tiny account to 1 mio in one month or 10 years. i highly doubt one can achieve that performance without taking high risks.

i will not be trading for income! i think trading for income, from the retail side, is a way of blowing out accounts really soon. i probably won't trade every day, but i will watch the markets every day.
if you trade for income as a retail trader, you are screwed, you will need to pay bills, food, rent and depend on trading frequency. i don't know if you pay tax in your country. in socialist germany we do! and it is not a small percentage!

thats it for now. if you want to share your thoughts, you can write on my journal. i am happy to interact with fellow traders.

You probably, are not suited for trading to begin with. Starting with the unreasonable expectation that you will not lose monies. If you get into the stockmarket to trade or invest, you will lose monies. That is 100% guaranteed. What happens to each trade, you have no control over. Not the best setups will change that. That said, you can control the risk per trade for instance. Risk management is job number 1 in my opinion. If you do not have any form of risk management, your chances of blowing up and losing all your monies is pretty high. Only 5% of traders ever succeed if that is any consolation to you. So, start with risking only 2% per trade and use stop losses always. That will further reduce your risk. Newbies should not be taking more than 5 trades all at once. If all 5 trades lose, you lose a maximum of 10% of your capital on a worst case scenario. Most times, you will lose maybe, 0.5 percent or even less provided you use stop losses. Small losses are not to be feared. As long as your gains are multiples of your losses. So, if you make $300 each time you win and lose $50 each time you lose, you will make monies. Important point, make sure when you place a trade, your trade is aligned with the major trend. If the stock is trending up, do not short it but, buy it. Ride the trend as long as you can with trailing stop losses. Try that.
 
Many years ago, I read a book on how to succeed at anything, written by an an unknown author but had some real nuggets of wisdom.
The most important factor that controls your success at anything is your knowhow.

None of us is trading the market, we are trading our knowledge of it. There is an old saying attributed to Tony Robbins -- Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.

Yet, there are many here who are doing exactly this, and I suspect you are too. I suggest you put this journal on hold, and go back to your courses and actually read them. o_O
Yes, 95% of them are very average, but the 5% that have value can change your life.

I too took the same route as you, via courses, but I was lucky enough to connect with the right people and the right courses. Very recently, I found a nugget in an old trading book which has redefined how I look at trading.

The only reason you are not profitable is because you don't know what works. Nothing else.

There is a lot of BS out there that years and decades are needed to become a profitable trader. All of it is balls.
The transformation happens in a heartbeat, the moment you find the niugget :D

I am an expert at 4 skills. In one of them I used to be in the top 5% of the country and ironically, I can bring anyone up to my level with 15 minutes of instruction, and a few hours of practice. I've seen life from both sides of the fence, as a player and as a coach, which has given me some insights on how people think..

95% of people fail at many things because they are not willing to do what it takes. It usually boils down to money or hard work. They are not ready to pay or put in the hard work required.

People look at a gem as shit, because they got it free, and shit as a gem, because they paid through their nose for it. Such is the nature of the human beast.

My wife was an average cook when we got married and she decided that she wanted to improve drastically, so she bought loads of cookbooks and attended cooking classes. Net result - she became more knowledgeable but quality was the same. :banghead:
After a few years of this I stepped in.

As a bachelor, I used to eat at a certain restaurant everyday, and over time got to know everyone from the owners to the cooks and waiters. I went to the restaurant and requested the head cook (he must have been about 70) to visit my home, teach my wife some cooking for which I paid him.

A few days later he visited and spoke with my wife for about an hour. After that her qualiy of cooking went through the roof.

So I asked her what he had taught, and she said that she had been doing a common mistake which he corrected. This of course raises the question, - why the loads of cooking books and classes didn't correct it?
She said that none of the books and classes had ever touched on this topic, which is very common in many skills.
Some of the most important knowledge is passed on only by word of mouth.

Do what you've always done and you'll get what you always got. :p

Couldn't agree more.
 
There is a big difference between theory and practice, strategy and tactics. How often have you seen the better tactics win, even though the strategy is "lesser". Tactics are where things become reality.

I suggest *maybe* your tactics are under developed and your strategy over developed. If this is the case, it will not work. Consider the difference between an architect and a builder. Architects can design things that are very hard to build, even un-buildable. Builders can make any pile of materials into something useful.

IMO, one could make money with sound tactics and very little, but sound, strategy. I would also suggest that most sound strategies could be profitable with excellent tactics, while almost no strategy is profitable with bad tactics.

Also don't dismiss Paper trading. Paper is where you work on execution tactics, not strategy, per se. No need to use live money getting proficient on order handling.

Notice you see almost NO books are references on trading tactics, and how to implement and use them in real time. Lots of "strategy" books are available though.
 
...
i highly doubt that you lack the skill and money to compete with HFT's.

... i will not be trading for income! i think trading for income, from the retail side, is a way of blowing out accounts really soon. i probably won't trade every day, but i will watch the markets every day
...

Back in 2014, Getco had a monthly IT budget of $2M USD, that's a fixed cost that most retail traders would not be able to, or want to incur.

So, how do you plan to trade this time? What will you do differently, to give yourself a realistic shot at survival?

BTW, it's "Lose". "Loose" is how kids describe each others' mothers.
 
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