The Last Bubble - US Government Debt

Quote from makloda:

I thought bonds were a bubble about to implode well over a year ago. Boy was I wrong. Perceived (!) irrationality can persist longer than we can imagine. Who says 30y can't goto 2.5%, 2%, 1.5%?

Don't mistake "No brainer trades" for "risk free money".
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Well I did not think bonds were a bubble last year. Now, I do.Time will tell my friend.. Eventually printing money in the system and a slight economic recovery will result in higher yields.
 
ralph00 mentioned a great way to play it on the institutional side and I mentioned a way to play it on the retail side. That is it..
To play means in my book is a trade with your risk capital only and long term..
 
I have been waiting on TLT the 20yr treasury ETF to show some signs of weakness. I think it may get to the 115 to 120 range before the bubble pops. It is pretty well optionable so i will be looking at puts. Right now just waiting for the right time.
 
Quote from makloda:

I thought bonds were a bubble about to implode well over a year ago. Boy was I wrong. Perceived (!) irrationality can persist longer than we can imagine. Who says 30y can't goto 2.5%, 2%, 1.5%?

Don't mistake "No brainer trades" for "risk free money".
More...

Its a fundamental play, Macky.

Just like your "Zero Risk" S&P 500 bet!

Sure, you were a wee bit off with timing, but I'm sure the Market will bottom soon! :D

On a serious note, some fundamental signals should precede a top - namely, bank lending, restoration of consumer credit, thawing of credit markets, signs of recovery etc etc.

But I'm sure you already knew that!
 
Quote from achilles28:Sure, you were a wee bit off with timing, but I'm sure the Market will bottom soon! :D
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Are you clown trading at all? Why don't we compare accounts to see who got "it right"?
 
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