The last 2 years were a greenhouse. Perfect weather and rich soil. Now what?

klattermusen

klattermusen

The last 2 years were a greenhouse. Perfect weather and rich soil. The Fed fed and overfed. And the plants grew and grew. To the clouds

But now the greenhouse has been dismantled and the gardener has walked away. End of metaphor - hope you all got it because it's the cleanest simplest way I can think about it on a macro level.


The SPY was 338 in Feb 2020. Now in Apr 2022 SPY is at 425. The QQQs are similarly priced.

What on earth is the argument that we keep going higher from here? Would it not be very possible we go back to 338. Likely even.

I hear people say you have to invest in the market because there is no where else to put you money. Well if the perfect market conditions are over doesn't it make sense to wait for a true retracement to Feb 2020 and re-start from there.
 
klattermusen said:
The last 2 years were a greenhouse. Perfect weather and rich soil. The Fed fed and overfed. And the plants grew and grew. To the clouds

But now the greenhouse has been dismantled and the gardener has walked away. End of metaphor - hope you all got it because it's the cleanest simplest way I can think about it on a macro level.


The SPY was 338 in Feb 2020. Now in Apr 2022 SPY is at 425. The QQQs are similarly priced.

What on earth is the argument that we keep going higher from here? Would it not be very possible we go back to 338. Likely even.

I hear people say you have to invest in the market because there is no where else to put you money. Well if the perfect market conditions are over doesn't it make sense to wait for a true retracement to Feb 2020 and re-start from there.
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Let us not forget that Congress, plays a larger role than the fed in determining the state of the economy. There are many factors beyond Congress and the Fed that play important roles.
 
What on earth is the argument that we keep going higher from here? Would it not be very possible we go back to 338. Likely even.
More...

In a non-manipulated world... you would be correct for things to revert, as has generally happened in the past. HOWEVER, since 2008, and points leading up to it, we have seen more and more manipulation to the markets by the US government than ever before.

Many people who relied on historical data & common sense ended up missing out on the incredible bull-rally that spawned from the 2008 crisis. You know it's not normal, but as long as the Fed keeps borrowing from the future to manipulate the present, you risk getting priced out if you don't dance along... this is actually becoming and old song by now.

Becoming an investor these days means less and less attention to financial statements over time, and more around guessing how is the government going to behave? Who is going to get the bailouts? etc.
 
klattermusen said:
The SPY was 338 in Feb 2020. Now in Apr 2022 SPY is at 425. The QQQs are similarly priced.

What on earth is the argument that we keep going higher from here? Would it not be very possible we go back to 338. Likely even.
More...

SPX Earnings growth Dec 31 2019 to Dec 31 2021 30.8%.
SPX rise since Dec 31, 2019 29%.
 
@klattermusen : nobody knows for sure, however, I follow David Tepper of Appaloosa Management closely and became very cautious in September of last year (2021), he does not see any great asset classes and, while remaining vague with concrete price targets on the S&P 500, said going long would be like picking up pennies in front of a freight train.

Reason is the poisonous combination of higher interest rates AND inflation, it's like a double shock for corporate earnings and thus increasing stock prices.

I of course can only guess, too, but my best guess is the Nasdaq 100 will correct around 40% of its alltime-high (according to TradingView, around 16,770) or slightly more, and that around 10,000 points in the Nasdaq will be seen this year or next.

Which I'd consider a great buying opportunity for a long term investor, because the long-term trend, over decades, in US equities is up ... never bet against America !
 
klattermusen said:
The last 2 years were a greenhouse. Perfect weather and rich soil. The Fed fed and overfed. And the plants grew and grew. To the clouds

But now the greenhouse has been dismantled and the gardener has walked away. End of metaphor - hope you all got it because it's the cleanest simplest way I can think about it on a macro level.


The SPY was 338 in Feb 2020. Now in Apr 2022 SPY is at 425. The QQQs are similarly priced.

What on earth is the argument that we keep going higher from here? Would it not be very possible we go back to 338. Likely even.

I hear people say you have to invest in the market because there is no where else to put you money. Well if the perfect market conditions are over doesn't it make sense to wait for a true retracement to Feb 2020 and re-start from there.
More...
Do you not trade short or inverses or commodities?
Something's always going up.
 
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