the jobs numbers were big surprise

Quote from alex7:

1. then show me a better indicator than CPI, which supports 6-7% inflation
2. CPI has been criticized for overstating inflation
3. the year/year change in core CPI is seen by most economists as the best measure of the underlying inflation rate = ~2%

Overstating???????

Who do you work for, the fed??!!?
 
Unemploymenmt RATE 4.6 % unchanged.

NO RATE CUT. But expect a change in wording.

USA citizens have no idea what a much weaker dollar will do to you.

The Fed must defend the dollar.

So he will cut rates when demand really falls off. So stop spending USA, and that is why the fed must wait a till USA is in a confirmed recession. They dont want to prevent it, just to try and stop it getting too bad,(ie depression).

So when demand falls off, they lower interest rates, the dollar falls but as the demand is not there, inflation from a weaker dollar does not occur so much.

There might even be a rally in the dollar on fears of world recession. Who knows !
 
try looking for shadow statistics on google. they have a comparison to what the numbers are as reported now vs what they would be if calculated the way they were before heudonics

i know those numbers, but just for example:
sgs-gdp.gif


do you believe this?

double digit earnings, unemplyment rate < 5% and 7 YEARS of negative GDP growth?
 
Quote from enforcer99:

contrary to what some might say,the street expected a weak number but not one that was this weak. also,prior months were revised down. this was simply a disaster.

Why not. I mean the bubble pops, people are leveraged up to the hilt. Jobs gotta go down and the bears rule the roost.

Its been a great few weeks.
 
All of this talk misses the point of the *real* current driver of inflation: bad oil/energy policy. Because of these corn planting ethanol subsidies, not enough wheat/soy/etc is getting planted, despite recent record low stocks.

Same goes for energy policy that should be on the books that forces oil demand down (ie requiring avg fleet to be above 35mpg).

I'd honestly be a lot more worried about wheat above $8 than what the fed does with a quarter or half percent rate move.

I doubt anyone would be complaining about inflation if gasoline (we used less of) was $1.50/gal and bread was $1.00/loaf.

Instead, we have nearly $3.00 gasoline and $4.00 bread. (sorry guys, I don't eat that ration-quality wonderbread crap).

All we're left with is cheap semiconductors !!! (who ever thought i'd be able to buy 4GB of SODIMM laptop memory for $150) You can get a pretty solid computer for $700 nowadays.
 
"it cost us roughly the same every time we have deiced to upgrade;"

again, you are missing the point

the price of computers DEFLATES

you are saying it COSTS the same to UPGRADE

duh

that means prices are (obviously) deflating, since you are getting more computer for the same money

again, i remember when 64k ram costs several hundred dollars

part of the way that (but hardly the only way) capitalism is so effective at building wealth is because of innovations like those that make technology cheaper over time
 
no you are missing the point.
it is not about computers that you upgrade once in 2-3 years. it is all about items that you buy on daily basis and form majority of your life spendings. And these items are going up up up.

that said when calculating CPI these differences should be reflected in weights applied to individual categories. I don't know the exact methodology.
 
Back
Top