The Jack Hershey Public Record Thread

Quote from jack hershey:

For the long trend see the topic "undervalued". (177, 223)

For the short trend see the toopic "overvalued". (177, 223)

When a market is in a neutral state the price formation is called "four o'clock drift." It is like a iine sloped as the hour hand at four o'clock.

For your prior Question on how a trading IB and clearing house relate to the trader, see Larry Harris's classic: "Trading and Exchanges (Market Microstructure for practitioners.) Oxford University Press, 2003. It is a seven part book and it uses the industry standard vocabulary.

The pages in ( ) are the Harris pages.

'How to Make Money in Stocks" by Williaam J O.Neil is a very important book for ajusting your trading attitude to top performance. Reading it a few times a year will keep a mental framework available to slot your other intellectual progress into.

My first book was Magee 4TH Ed.


A lot of the posts in ET serve to show the ststus of the poster. Basically everyone goes through a learning process. The fastest way is to ask questions. Another way is to develop beliefs from traditions. As you see plain Arithmetic has had a serious influence on people. Markets have a lot of players and they have "attitude". IB's and clearing houses do services and they get paid when the service is completed. That is their rightful attitude.

Acounts get settled as in poker games. You turn in your chips and get a cash settlement after the game. When I play 21 I share my profits with the dealer at the end of the game and not round by round. Pekelo, Redduke,lucrum, Magna, Atticus, etc., are helping everyone focus on learning how the IB, clearing, and exchanges take their money for services. They may still think they pay for srvices at the end of the day, but the services are collected immediately, instead.

EE does not talk about costs of trading very much. It is because the costs are neglible. For a 25 trade day my costs run around 10K. So Redduke is correct, my print of 8,225 gross does not cover my daily costs. For 25 trades 2 to 3 winners are close to what I have to pay out.

I have negligible costs for trading. I paid 800 bucks to make 8000 bucks in a small amount of time.

I do four pages of stats for each day. My log is five pages long and I print four charts to show the day. My "critical review each day is about one or two pages. I run five other yellow pads to take topical notes, if any.

My hands and up to my left shoulder joint has noticable calcium build up from writing for 55 years. I resemble an experienced carpenter who has been swinging an Estwing for a decade. Framing may only take three swings to drive a nail but there is more to it than the 28 inch handle.

How to get the average ET reader up to a minimum level of understanding market operations hasn't happened in ET. Pekelo. Redduke, and atticus all commented on the common reading errors ET members make when reading prints. I asked several people how to present trades in an understandable way; Atticus suggested doing what he does. Frenchfry said nothing. So I did my illustrations and learned that the ET memebrs could not read the illustrations and that they are happy to be where they are.

Terrific. A lot of ET folk can have a lot of AHA's in the future, maybe.

The two trades that combined to make the 8,225 had some subtleties that will not even be noticed. As of now they are called bullshit by those who are judgemental.

Hello Jack,

Can you give your comment on those pages (overvalued/undervalued)?I don't have Harris book in place.Hour hand at 4 doesn't look like a side drift,btw.It more looks like a down sloped.From what I've observed,the over/undervalued points could be found on a higher timeframe.
 
OK guys, let's keep it friendly here. If you are not interested in what Jack has to say then move on. You complain when he comes into other threads so now he has this thread to discuss trading with those interested. Again, if that's not you then please move on. Thanks.
 
Jack,

please note that there are many people around on ET, who do appreciate your selfless sharing and wise, amazing insights regarding trading and markets.
Carry on with your comments.

Ivo
 
From the Google search i found a set of posts regarding 'four o`clock drift' by Grob109 in this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/printthread.php?threadid=75715

And it`s said there,that 'four o`clock drift' is a high risk sidelining.I wonder why.I thought that over/undervalued extreems were more risky,and hard to predict.To me, a 'four o`clock drift' is risky in a way,if i`m somehow already in the position.It could be risky from there,as the market may decide to move one-opposite way without getting back.May be i should avoid it entierly.Any thoughts?
 
Quote from relocate:

From the Google search i found a set of posts regarding 'four o`clock drift' by Grob109 in this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/printthread.php?threadid=75715

And it`s said there,that 'four o`clock drift' is a high risk sidelining.I wonder why.I thought that over/undervalued extreems were more risky,and hard to predict.To me, a 'four o`clock drift' is risky in a way,if i`m somehow already in the position.It could be risky from there,as the market may decide to move one-opposite way without getting back.May be i should avoid it entierly.Any thoughts?
Yes: "There is No risk involved in trading. NO prediction. NO anomalies. You ALWAYS know where you are in the order of events. You always know what must come next because you do MADA instead of OODA. And if not you always have your bookmarks ready. You log, you annotate, you degap, you debrief, you wait, you use at least one of the 12 leading indicators of price, you hit T, you do wash trades. You continuously double your acount and sweep excess money into PVT and SSR trading accounts and then use that money to help solve local issues. You feel comfort, support and confidence instead of fear, stress and other feelings associated with prediction and risk management type trading."

That was from the top of my head. Jack, I read it now so many times that if one day you can't post anymore I could post on your behalve and nobody would notice the difference. :)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Maybe we are looking at different charts or you live in an alternate universe, but I don't see what you see:



Market fucking melted down. If you were long you got burnt. Care to post your Wednesday blotter?

Today (18APR13) the open was short.
My entry was @ 9:31:32 and my cover was @ 9:35:32.


On my chart Tuesday, the 18th was a rally day and anybody who shorted the first 5-10 minutes got taken to the cleaners. Are we talking EST?



Pekelo I don't know what you are looking at ... try S&P 500 for year 2013 :D

The only problem is that "Jack's Public Record" is hindsight, and the real time calls were losing or breakeven at best ... (losing big if his commission and fees are $800 for two trades ... :confused: )
 
Quote from promagma:

Pekelo I don't know what you are looking at ... try S&P 500 for year 2013 :D

Damn, you are right, I mixed the dates up a bit. What is a little confusion in a JH thread anyway? My apologizes to Jack, so let's look at the correct dates:

hSUmv6Q.png


On the 17th long, in the given timeframe the market was going down so a long was a loser.

On the 18th he was correct, the market was falling in the first 10 minutes.

These 2 trades just about cancel each other

The prediction for Friday was also good. If he was long in the usual timeframe he could have made 2-3 points.

So the gain for these 3 posted trades/prediction is about 2-3 ES points...
 
So, sorry, what have I missed?

Let's say Jack can get 2-3 points in the first 10 minutes. At 10 contracts, this means he can walk away with whatever part of his algorithm does this, or he can let it ride, which is what he always does.

This means his claim of 3x the daily average might be true if the account were small enough.

In pairs trades, I haven't lost in 9 months on 10 trades for over 30% annualized.

This sounds easier than worrying about technical malfunctions so common to the Hersheyites.
 
I remember Jack from usenet forums in the 90-ies.

He was quite a riot back then, and it does not look like things have changed. His stuff is definitely for those who have plenty of time.

Just my two cents.
 
Quote from davidcohenphd:

His stuff is definitely for those who have plenty of time.

I agree, but it is raining outside and I am bored. So what is the consensus, after 1 month of trying, did Jack establish a credible public record of his trading ability or not? I say not, but I am open to reconsider if I see a weekly or monthly statement, preferably with Jack's name on it...
At this point we would happily take a TST or C2 record....
 
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