The infamous "Blackbox" Theory
- Thread starter aphexcoil
- Start date
Metastock has a customizable system, tradestation has easy lang., OmniTrader picks n chooses, Indigo is a very dark box...
My favorite systems are the ones that offer hot cars and fast chicks, and have a hypothetical rate of return(untested) of at least 60% per day...Here are some more of my favorites:
http://www.josephsforecasts.com/PlanetsTell.asp (planets)
this one is the Ron Popiel system (set it, and forget it)
http://sise.autostock.co.kr/ehtml/help/service.phtml
this guy doesn't have the car or the chicks, so he doesn't qualify
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2050671425
My favorite systems are the ones that offer hot cars and fast chicks, and have a hypothetical rate of return(untested) of at least 60% per day...Here are some more of my favorites:
http://www.josephsforecasts.com/PlanetsTell.asp (planets)
this one is the Ron Popiel system (set it, and forget it)
http://sise.autostock.co.kr/ehtml/help/service.phtml
this guy doesn't have the car or the chicks, so he doesn't qualify
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2050671425
Im sure there are mechanical trading systems around that could get you .5 a day on average, but they would be unlikely to be scalping systems, more likely swing systems. And drawdowns in the area of 15% of capital would also be expected.
The more you trade the more difficult it becomes for a system to beat trading costs, so swing systems are likely to yeild better becuase you are operating with a lower variable cost base.
One thing I know about mechanical systems that a lot of people forget is that to design a profitable mechanical system, you have to be an excellent trader in the first place. Because all you're doing is taking a winning methodology and converting the rules to a language a computer understands.
Those making money from mechanical systems are usually
A) Very skilled traders who already do well trading manually
and
B) Very good programmers
Im sure the best mechanical systems out there are ones that traders have been using successfully for a long time, and then got around to programing, to save them some prep time each day. Not guys just constrantly backtesting a range of indicators in the hope of blinding discovering the holy grail.
Runningbear
The more you trade the more difficult it becomes for a system to beat trading costs, so swing systems are likely to yeild better becuase you are operating with a lower variable cost base.
One thing I know about mechanical systems that a lot of people forget is that to design a profitable mechanical system, you have to be an excellent trader in the first place. Because all you're doing is taking a winning methodology and converting the rules to a language a computer understands.
Those making money from mechanical systems are usually
A) Very skilled traders who already do well trading manually
and
B) Very good programmers
Im sure the best mechanical systems out there are ones that traders have been using successfully for a long time, and then got around to programing, to save them some prep time each day. Not guys just constrantly backtesting a range of indicators in the hope of blinding discovering the holy grail.
Runningbear
not necessarily. we trade a profitable, 100% mechanical system, yet nobody in our group has any discretionary trading experience.
instead, what we did was to develop a custom simulator, and then reasearch different strategies. we did start at well known TA indicators, yet ended up constructing our own based on statistical analysis of historical data.
- jaan
that's right.
(edit) well, both right.
you don't need to be a super trader. but you do need to really understand what trading is about.
System trading, ATS or strategy trading whatever you call it, is not a shortcut to success. it's the end result of a lot of work, learning experience, discipline, process.
tntneo
(edit) well, both right.
you don't need to be a super trader. but you do need to really understand what trading is about.
System trading, ATS or strategy trading whatever you call it, is not a shortcut to success. it's the end result of a lot of work, learning experience, discipline, process.
tntneo
Hi,
this is all very new to me :-(
What would be a good way , and what (programme, language), should I look at learning, on how to programme a trading system ?
Would buying something like Metastock, work and learning how to use it, give me the option to set up my computer in the a.m. and let it run all day ?
Sorry if this is unclear, really not sure what I need to be asking
Later, Andy
this is all very new to me :-(
What would be a good way , and what (programme, language), should I look at learning, on how to programme a trading system ?
Would buying something like Metastock, work and learning how to use it, give me the option to set up my computer in the a.m. and let it run all day ?
Sorry if this is unclear, really not sure what I need to be asking
Later, Andy
I believe that there are proprietary systems that accomplish this and are not for sale.
I also know that several systems developers (e.g., the OmniTrader team) have been working on this type of project for several years, with the objective to make their final product available to the trading community.
As I said in a previous post, just by looking at a publication like Futures Truth we can see that several excellent systems are being offered to all for relatively small amounts of money. Anyone can purchase a couple of those and "automate" them via a broker, with an agreement that the broker take all signals without fear and passion. In this way we can couple good logic with unfailing (more or less) discipline.
This tells me two things: that the essence of Aphie's original question at the beginning of this thread is already feasible (via an impartial third party trading one of the best systems); and also that the second, easier step (automating the system's operation via a computer) must be a reality, but it is not being offered to the masses, perhaps for good reasons (e.g., cost.)
Having developed a few systems in the past, and feeling frustrated by this situation, a few weeks ago I took the plunge myself. I am a relatively good discretinary trader and I have also learned to trade profitably several of the commercially available systems and methodologies. Now, I am trying to pull this experience together in a family of systems that are automatable via TS6.
Would be glad to share experiences along the way.
Wish me good luck
I also know that several systems developers (e.g., the OmniTrader team) have been working on this type of project for several years, with the objective to make their final product available to the trading community.
As I said in a previous post, just by looking at a publication like Futures Truth we can see that several excellent systems are being offered to all for relatively small amounts of money. Anyone can purchase a couple of those and "automate" them via a broker, with an agreement that the broker take all signals without fear and passion. In this way we can couple good logic with unfailing (more or less) discipline.
This tells me two things: that the essence of Aphie's original question at the beginning of this thread is already feasible (via an impartial third party trading one of the best systems); and also that the second, easier step (automating the system's operation via a computer) must be a reality, but it is not being offered to the masses, perhaps for good reasons (e.g., cost.)
Having developed a few systems in the past, and feeling frustrated by this situation, a few weeks ago I took the plunge myself. I am a relatively good discretinary trader and I have also learned to trade profitably several of the commercially available systems and methodologies. Now, I am trying to pull this experience together in a family of systems that are automatable via TS6.
Would be glad to share experiences along the way.
Wish me good luck