The Importance of the 1400 level on the SPX

Wonder how many of those who were bearish at 1275 are now bullish at 1400?

Many are sheep; few are shepherds.

Last week's narrow range suggests an imminent move one way or another.

1400 is resistance, but so is the 200 day moving average.

Sold most of my (etf) longs into Friday's strength: risk/reward up here is not worthwhile, imo.
 
I think it was Makloda who said that a walk around outside can't help your trading.

I took a walk around outside and saw many bank repos, lots of people getting laid off, jobs being eliminated, 4 dollar gas, slow stores/malls, etc.

I dont see from either a technical or fundamental level why these indexes shouldnt be trading lower in the near future.

Certainly timing has a lot to do with things. In the year 2001, right after the new year, many stocks headed lower in obvious waterfall selloffs.

When May/June/July hits, it may just get nasty. Remember the summer of 2006? summer of 2007? What does the summer of 2008 hold for us????
 
This just sounds so much like 2001. We were constantly told how the bottom was in and this was just one of those corrections. There was money waiting on the sidelines. etc.

Think what you want, but I dont believe the bottom is in just yet. Its too soon.

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

With lots of support below like 50 day and others and massive rate cuts and clearly a Fed sponsored rally do you really believe this is going to crash down? Those days are gone. There is too much money on the sidelines watching 1400 levels. Money market accounts are paying 2-3 % where those funds will end up going now?

Doom and Gloom can only last so long. Your recession has been proven so far.

Your bearish ambitions unfortunately are capped at the knees. Stop buying those SPY puts they will end up going worthless.
Stop losing money Jackstone you are the lonely one here.
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Quote from smilingsynic:

Wonder how many of those who were bearish at 1275 are now bullish at 1400?

Many are sheep; few are shepherds.

Last week's narrow range suggests an imminent move one way or another.

1400 is resistance, but so is the 200 day moving average.

Sold most of my (etf) longs into Friday's strength: risk/reward up here is not worthwhile, imo.
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I'd think most traders were bearish a few weeks ago, the S&P was dropping like a stone, and was very similar to the previous bear market. Also the news had been full of dire stories and predictions, with negativity and losses fueling every indicator I looked at.

Then there was the recent contrary indicators, which I took notice of, and wasn't so aggressive in my bearish stance but still kept a watchful eye to the downside. I'm sure most of the other people interested in the markets did the same. It looked just like the previous bear market, after all.

It's been a very interesting 8 months but I've never resorted to being either a shepherd or a sheep, I follow my own route. If you agree with my views so be it but I derive absolutely no satisfaction from you following me - my ego is not that big.

I agree with you (not a sheep) that the 200ema is an important resistance level right now. FWIW I think we'll go through it, although I've been long for a while now so I would say that. The 50 and 200 day averages crossing will be a clearer sign, of course.

/baaaaaaaaa\aaaaaaaaaaaa
 
Quote from Cutten:

Be aware that levels can be headfaked. A move to 1425-30, for example, would look like a breakout and convince many bears to turn bullish. So IMO it is pretty meaningless. It would take a move to maybe 1450 to really signal a potential new bull, and even then I think it would retrace to 1400 or a bit below first, just to scare people out form the long side again.

Basically if you have a stop at 1405 or 1410 or something, be prepared to get taken out even if you are "right" in the long term. Ditto if you are waiting for those prices to get long.
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that is absolutely true, I'm newer at the ES but what I have found and been told is that those guys are masters at stealing your stops
 
Quote from Rtrader2525:

that is absolutely true, I'm newer at the ES but what I have found and been told is that those guys are masters at stealing your stops
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Exactly why I don't leave hard & tight stops on while I have overnight positions. Look at the range already tonight: 1400 down to 1394.25. Moving around just to take the stops out.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

HFT2- You have no method to your one-sided analysis and you are an idiot. Its unfortunate that you probably don't even trade, since its people like you that fill the pockets of the traders that approach the markets and trade rationally. Your post count is probably higher than your account value.

Pho - I agree with most of your analysis. I actually have ~1405-1407 as the first significant resistance zone on ES and would not consider shorting anything under this level. The resistance really starts layering on from 1415-1430 though in the form of significant fibs off the daily and wave projections on the 60-min. However my zone is much more compact on the NQ which will make for an amazing risk/reward short ... I've never seen more confluence on a chart level than 1955-1965 on the NQ. The market structure is also primed for an aggressive decline... 5 point stops and 100+ point targets.... cant beat it :)

I just considered attaching my chart, but I won't even give HFT the benefit of learning a thing or two.
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Not only my post count is higher, my account value is much bigger than yours and I am much more intelligent NOT to respond to your insults in kind.

With your insults you have tried to feel better from a shattered ego standpoint. Good luck in life to you.
 
Quote from jackstone54:

This just sounds so much like 2001. We were constantly told how the bottom was in and this was just one of those corrections. There was money waiting on the sidelines. etc.

Think what you want, but I dont believe the bottom is in just yet. Its too soon.
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Keep buying your SPY puts and keep getting hit every day till you can't trade. We shall see you in the poor house this year. Just in case let me remind you the world is not the same as in 2001. There is lot on the table done by the Feds and Congress, you may never see a recession either.
 
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