The Importance of Simplicity

Quote from nitro:


You need ADX and DMI to tell you are in a strong trend?

nitro
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I don't, no. But many traders who use this strategy, such as Teresa Lo and Linda Raschke, do.

--Db
 
This is a terrific thread, very thought-provoking and encouraging to those of us in the hopeful KISS crowd...I was wondering if any of the principals of the thread might be willing to post some screen grabs depicting what exactly they're doing (breakout methods especially). I'm getting a bit confused as to who's using which bars in which context, for what reason...

Thanks again - keep up the great work.
 
Quote from Girlpower:

This is looking for a minor trend down then a reversal and new minor trend up to break through the previous high. I'm wondering if there might be some way of modifying that approach to something that could be used.

Hmmmmm.........
Natalie
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If you mean the previous reaction high, that's how Sperandeo defines a trend reversal, i.e., break the trendline, fail to make a lower low, then penetrate the last reaction high (in the case of down to up). If you don't wait for the penetration of that LRH, then you may simply be buying a bounce in a downtrend. Or am I misunderstanding what's on your mind?

--Db
 
And, yes, I've suggested looking at bar lengths of other than the usual 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, etc. Why not? There's nothing inherently more difficult about using 12m bars than 10m bars. Doing so will not change an uptrend to a downtrend.

--Db
 
Quote from Sophomore Jinx:

This is a terrific thread, very thought-provoking and encouraging to those of us in the hopeful KISS crowd...I was wondering if any of the principals of the thread might be willing to post some screen grabs depicting what exactly they're doing (breakout methods especially). I'm getting a bit confused as to who's using which bars in which context, for what reason...

Thanks again - keep up the great work.
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Hello, Sophomore, I remember you from your other thread.

I'm afraid I can't be of any help just yet. As I said, I've abandoned the retracement strategy because the necessary momentum is so rarely there these days, at least for me. This is partly due to range compression and partly due to the general lack of interest in trading. Therefore, I'm going back to old breakout strategies and modifying them for the current environment. You might say this thread came along at just the right time.

I'm not yet ready, though, to provide any guidelines, much less rules. Maybe by mid-week. And providing charts might be difficult since I follow three simultaneously. But I could probably show the first trade of a day since that might be contained in one chart window from beginning to end.

Will do my best.

--Db
 
Hmmmmmmmm. yep you're describing what I can see in a 10 min bar with higher highs and higher lows with a line under it. in the first part, and describing one of my fears in the second.

It's not quite what is on my mind though but I'm thinking along the lines of transferring that idea into perhaps a shorter time frame or finding a much more global support level (maybe sloping upwards??) that then carries on through.

My thought right now are jumbled. I'm going to have to think this through and play with it a bit.

Natalie

p.s. I really don't want to get into using other indicators like adx etc if i can help it. They've only ever confused the issue for me in the past and I don't trust them at all.
 
Look forward to seeing the visuals at your convenience.

The thing is, the deeper this thread has gone, it's seemed as though the initially simple methods being described - the more they're discussed - are revealed to have an additional qualifier, or another timeframe, something to check against. Thus the confusion about who's trading off of a 15-minute bar, but crosschecking it against a 30, or a 5-minute MA crossover...or TRIN...

Thanks again - this is a huge help.

And best of luck DB on your new ideas.
 
Quote from Girlpower:

My approach to ES is about as simple as it gets.

Using 15 min bars. after the first 1/2 hour, if it's going out of the top of the bars before go long, if the bottom go short. Run a trailing stop. Turnarounds in trend later in the day are pretty obvious too. I might not pick up the 'best' moment to buy/sell, but usually being in the right direction makes for pretty consistent profits. 30 min bars confirm it too.

Exits, sometimes a support/resistance line crossover, sometimes a 9 or 18 SMA on a 5 min chart, sometimes even just the bars themselves failing and reversing. Not exactly rocket science, but it works well enough. (yeah! tried all the rocket stuff and just ended up confused...) :)

Fast moving markets I reduce the size to 10 or 5 and do the same. Slow sideways days are days off doing something else...

Natalie
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Thanks very much Natalie.

I'm trying to get clear on why you shorted at 910, rather than some point below the 30-minute low. Aren't you looking for it to "go out of the bottom of the bars?"

Also, if you could clarify your exit, that would be a big help, too! :)

Many thanks again. I appreciate your taking the time to help out.
 
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