The Importance of Simplicity

[Girlpower]

Quote from Sophomore Jinx:

That's interesting - because today looks like it would've been a pretty good day for a downside breakout of the opening 30-minute range, provided one could just sit there, hold the position, and watch the market putter all day.

I've been burned too many times in a drifting market that suddenly goes in the wrong direction quite strongly or never actually goes anywhere. So if it isn't really showing itself properly I prefer to do other things (Like today - talking with dear friends and catching up on housework.)

Natalie

 

[Snosur4]

Quote from Uncle Festus:

Looking at the 3 minute charts, it looks like your system would've gotten pretty churned today. Do you find that happens on many days?

-Festus

Festus...

Although the major trend today was obviously down...it was a little choppy. As mentioned in earlier posts....caution is to be used on light volume days like today...with the bond market closed etc.

I didn't trade today, although basically I think my approach would have worked well. Looking at the ES I see that it made a series of new lows none of which surpassed the previous low by 1 full point until about 11:30. Looks like my usual 3 point stop would not have been hit by only 1 tick.

Nq looked a little choppier. Although you notice how the 30 minute low of 990 held back any advance during the day. I believe we saw the same thing last Friday. That is a pretty common.

Mike

 

[Sophomore Jinx]

Makes sense. Just curious - how long do these trades typically last? (I.e., how much housework can one get done in a day? )

 

[Girlpower]

Quote from Sophomore Jinx:

Makes sense. Just curious - how long do these trades typically last? (I.e., how much housework can one get done in a day? )

A woman's work is never done!

Natalie

 

[Uncle Festus]

Quote from Snosur4:



Festus...

Nq looked a little choppier. Although you notice how the 30 minute low of 990 held back any advance during the day. I believe we saw the same thing last Friday. That is a pretty common.

Mike

You approach interests me and I like your calm attitude.

Yeah, I was looking at NQ and not ES and it looked like you would have been stopped out (with a 4 point stop after breaking the low by 2 points) 3 times today and unless you were fast enough to take some profits would have been stopped out again by that crazy spike at 3:27.

I hear a lot of people say they stay out when the market is choppy, but how do you know its choppy until after the fact when you've been stopped out a couple of times?

When you've been stopped out a couple of times do you just hang it up for the day or maybe take profits quicker?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Sophomore Jinx:

That's interesting - because today looks like it would've been a pretty good day for a downside breakout of the opening 30-minute range, provided one could just sit there, hold the position, and watch the market putter all day.

It's always obvious in hindsight: just pick long or short at the open, place a stop above the high or under the low, then go do something else for the day.

Unfortunately, it never works out that way in real life, though some people will grind away at such an approach until they've lost all their money, forever trading yesterday's chart rather than what's in front of them.

--Db

 

[Girlpower]

Quote from dbphoenix:



It's always obvious in hindsight: just pick long or short at the open, place a stop above the high or under the low, then go do something else for the day.

Unfortunately, it never works out that way in real life, though some people will grind away at such an approach until they've lost all their money, forever trading yesterday's chart rather than what's in front of them.

--Db

Agreed. I keep saying half the battle is to know when to walk away instead of getting into potentially loss making days and this was one of those occasions. I didn't like it so I went and did something else...

Natalie

 

[profitseer]

Quote from dbphoenix:



It's always obvious in hindsight: just pick long or short at the open, place a stop above the high or under the low, then go do something else for the day.

Unfortunately, it never works out that way in real life, though some people will grind away at such an approach until they've lost all their money, forever trading yesterday's chart rather than what's in front of them.

--Db

I like trading yesterdays chart. The trick is being patient until it comes around again. Yesterdays chart doesn't always show up today or tommorrow. It'll come around, and when it does, if I'm ready I can trade it.

Trading todays chart is for analysts, thinkers and fast thinkers. I don't fit in any of those categories. I'm more of a watcher waiter and seer.

 

[Girlpower]

Quote from profitseer:

If you miss a long breakout and it starts retracing, you can just enter a trailing buy stop and enter when the stop gets hit. Do it backwatds with a trailing sell stop for the short side.

Also, 61.8% retracement is the last stop. Anything farther than that is probably a full blown reversal. So entering at 61.8 is considered a low risk point, because if it gets taken out you don't want it anyway.

I'm interested in the 61.8% retracement you quoted. How do you come by this number as opposed to say 60% or 65% or whatever. Is there some sort of rule that this seems to follow?

Yeah - Things rattle through this mind of mine and come out the other end all tangled, but in time they sort themselves out.

Natalie

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from profitseer:

I like trading yesterdays chart. The trick is being patient until it comes around again. Yesterdays chart doesn't always show up today or tommorrow. It'll come around, and when it does, if I'm ready I can trade it.

If you have any money left. I'd rather trade what I see, not what I saw.

--Db