paysense, is this a real money account at a real money trading firm????? Also was it a real money account of yours that Collective tracked? You do know O'Neil had a mutual fund in the 90s using his Caslim method that came out with great fanfare but was a big disappointment and eventually taken over by another fund company? Regardless, IBD's methodlogy is better than probably 95% of what is out there, so good luck.
The IBD Experiment: Trade $100k into $1M In (4) Years
- Thread starter paysense
- Start date
- Status
No, I did not know this. Even still it's worked for me.
Thank you.
Meanwhile, check out this outfit and let me know what you think -
<b>http://canslimpc.com/</b>
This is a re-post of first-half page data at (no affiliation) -
http://www.powerstocks.co.za/canslim.php
It contains historical and current info on some research I've used for over 10 years to develop my trading strategy.
This is one of the most famous and successful investing strategies of the modern era. William O'Neil is a legendary American stockbroker, entrepreneur, and author. He pioneered the use of computerized analysis of historical stock performance to predict current market trends. He has also written several books on successful stock market strategies and runs and owns Investors Business Daily (IBD). He was born in Oklahoma in 1933 and raised in Texas. He attended Southern Methodist University, where he received a bachelor's degree in business. After serving in the United States Air Force, he began his career as a stockbroker at Hayden, Stone, & Company in 1953. You can find his full biography over here : http://www.william-oneill.com/
While working on Wall Street, O'Neil became fascinated with what make stocks successful. As he proceeded to research this topic, he studied eight different market cycles over 40 years, and eventually identified seven basic factors that all top-performing companies had in common. O'Neil then developed CAN SLIM, an investment strategy that took into account not just fundamental and technical analysis, but also the historical trends and patterns of stocks. He went on to computerize this form of market analysis technique.
PERFORMANCE
CANSLIM has consistently been the top performing portfolio strategy tracked for the last 12 years at the American Association for Individual Investors (www.aaii.com) as shown on the left chart below. The right chart shows the 10-year performance published by a real fund that uses CANSLIM to manage private clients money.
As I've said above, my long-term results will lie somewhere in-between these two.
More info can be found at my Twitter link or EliteTrader profile.
http://www.powerstocks.co.za/canslim.php
It contains historical and current info on some research I've used for over 10 years to develop my trading strategy.
This is one of the most famous and successful investing strategies of the modern era. William O'Neil is a legendary American stockbroker, entrepreneur, and author. He pioneered the use of computerized analysis of historical stock performance to predict current market trends. He has also written several books on successful stock market strategies and runs and owns Investors Business Daily (IBD). He was born in Oklahoma in 1933 and raised in Texas. He attended Southern Methodist University, where he received a bachelor's degree in business. After serving in the United States Air Force, he began his career as a stockbroker at Hayden, Stone, & Company in 1953. You can find his full biography over here : http://www.william-oneill.com/
While working on Wall Street, O'Neil became fascinated with what make stocks successful. As he proceeded to research this topic, he studied eight different market cycles over 40 years, and eventually identified seven basic factors that all top-performing companies had in common. O'Neil then developed CAN SLIM, an investment strategy that took into account not just fundamental and technical analysis, but also the historical trends and patterns of stocks. He went on to computerize this form of market analysis technique.
PERFORMANCE
CANSLIM has consistently been the top performing portfolio strategy tracked for the last 12 years at the American Association for Individual Investors (www.aaii.com) as shown on the left chart below. The right chart shows the 10-year performance published by a real fund that uses CANSLIM to manage private clients money.
As I've said above, my long-term results will lie somewhere in-between these two.
More info can be found at my Twitter link or EliteTrader profile.
It should be noted that this past week contained an IBD market shift from "market in confirmed uptrend " to "market in correction". These calls have made an abundance of compounded gains for my investment strategies for more than a decade and kept me out of huge market drawdown, as well.
According to plan, the initial LONG position was closed and a second SHORT position was opened at Thursday's (18-Nov-2010) stock market open (09:30 EST):
Open Positions
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Current Price P/L
11/18/10 9:30 SELL 2 @NQZ0 2121.00 0 2133.75 ($510)
Recently Closed Trades
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Price Risk P/L
10/13/10 9:30 BUY 4 @NQZ0 2051.00 11/18 9:30 2121.75 Low $5,660
Closed LONG position gain/(loss): <b>$5,660</b>
Open SHORT position gain/(loss): <b>($510)</b>
TOTAL to-date (5.8 weeks) ($) gain/(loss): <b>$5,150</b>
TOTAL to-date (5.8 weeks) (%) gain/(loss): <b>5.15%</b>
Re: <b>The IBD Experiment</b>
I've included below part of the system description. You can PM me or visit my profile for trading site info.
Meanwhile, C2 is independently tracking via audit every trade that -
<b>Overview:</b> Buys NQ (futures) contracts with "market in confirmed uptrend". Sells NQ (futures) contracts with "market in correction".
Meanwhile, we are 44 days or 7 weeks into my final version that I am sharing. Take a look at the updated stats:
Statistics
Trades 2
# Profitable 1 (50.0%)
Avg trade duration 22.5 days
Annual return (compounded) 49.2%
Average win $5,660
Average loss $970
Profit factor 5.8:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 7.95%
drawdown period Nov 09, 2010 to Nov 16, 2010
Correlation w/ S&P 0.000
Sharpe ratio 2.538
C2Realism Factor 100%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%
System Description
Investors Business Daily or IBD provides extensive research for institutional clients. Historically, every market uptrend has been "confirmed" with a follow-through day. Conversely, a multiple distribution day stack can point to a market correction.
I've designed a system to profit from IBD's market shift calls as outlined in the newspaper's "The Big Picture". I also use other proprietary measures that have been back-tested for over 3 years.
Thank you for following and welcome to the "IBD Experiment"!
I've included below part of the system description. You can PM me or visit my profile for trading site info.
Meanwhile, C2 is independently tracking via audit every trade that -
<b>Overview:</b> Buys NQ (futures) contracts with "market in confirmed uptrend". Sells NQ (futures) contracts with "market in correction".
Meanwhile, we are 44 days or 7 weeks into my final version that I am sharing. Take a look at the updated stats:
Statistics
Trades 2
# Profitable 1 (50.0%)
Avg trade duration 22.5 days
Annual return (compounded) 49.2%
Average win $5,660
Average loss $970
Profit factor 5.8:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 7.95%
drawdown period Nov 09, 2010 to Nov 16, 2010
Correlation w/ S&P 0.000
Sharpe ratio 2.538
C2Realism Factor 100%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%
System Description
Investors Business Daily or IBD provides extensive research for institutional clients. Historically, every market uptrend has been "confirmed" with a follow-through day. Conversely, a multiple distribution day stack can point to a market correction.
I've designed a system to profit from IBD's market shift calls as outlined in the newspaper's "The Big Picture". I also use other proprietary measures that have been back-tested for over 3 years.
Thank you for following and welcome to the "IBD Experiment"!
As we continue on forward, having logged 120 days of trade...
System currently has ~$17k in equity (~$13.6k open profit),
40% compound annual return, 10% (max) drawdown,
3 trades (2 closed, 1 open).
Hypothetical Trading Results
Open Positions
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Current Price P/L
12/7/10 9:31 BUY 6 @NQH1 2212.00 0 2327.75 $13,890
Recently Closed Trades
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Price Risk P/L
11/18/10 9:32 SELL 4 @NQZ0 2125.25 12/7 9:30 2215.50 Normal ($7,220)
10/7/10 9:30 BUY 5 @NQZ0 2015.25 11/18 9:32 2121.00 Normal $10,575
Statistics
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades 3
# Profitable 2 (66.7%)
Avg trade duration 40.0 days
Annual return (compounded) 39.8%
Average win $12,022
Average loss $7,220
Profit factor 3.3:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 10.24%
drawdown period Nov 09, 2010 to Dec 08, 2010
Correlation w/ S&P 0.333
Sharpe ratio 2.103
AutoTrade Factor 0%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 18.8%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%
What has changed?
I've since opted to stop trading the previously ET posted system, to put into permanent place it's near replica.
What are the differences?
From the first post, my original futures system start date: 12-Oct-2010. A nearly identical futures system (that will be commented on going forward) was started 5 days earlier: 07-Oct-2010.
Another difference is starting capital. From first post - 12-Oct-2010: System inception ($100,000). Current system data - 07-Oct-2010: System inception ($160,000).* Same approximate leverage into trades can be seen below, also.
The shift over to currently reported system came with last closed trade in original system on 17-Dec-2010:
(Old) Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Price Risk P/L
12/6/10 9:14 BUY 2 @NQZ0 2187.75 12/17 13:40 2223.75 Low $1,440
11/18/10 9:30 SELL 2 @NQZ0 2121.00 12/6 9:14 2187.75 Normal ($2,670)
10/13/10 9:30 BUY 4 @NQZ0 2051.00 11/18 9:30 2121.75 Low $5,660
(Old) Statistics
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades 3
# Profitable 2 (66.7%)
Avg trade duration 21.7 days
Annual return (compounded) 15.3%
Average win $3,550
Average loss $2,670
Profit factor 2.7:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 7.95%
drawdown period Nov 09, 2010 to Nov 16, 2010
Correlation w/ S&P 0.260
Sharpe ratio 1.362
AutoTrade Factor 0%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%
As you can see no adverse reasons to shift to my currently reported "final" futures system.
I'd also like to make a brief comment on previous (albeit muted) system drawdown. It came as IBD pre-maturely announced "market in correction" as the indexes contracted - only to see the market rebound just as my system closed the LONG position for a SHORT. Not many days later, as the indexes again reached new recent highs, the reputable publication posted a shift back into "confirmed uptrend" that we have been following since (closed SHORT and opened LONG).
In ~13 years following IBD, I've only seen them re-tract a "correction" call once, and not require a "follow-through" signal to confirm the next uptrend. Bad timing for my new system, I guess:
The effect has not only been the previously mentioned to-date, historical drawdown -- but equity gains have thus far "only" tracked the S&P 500 index (when we could already been severely outperforming).
We still hold out hope that the next "market shift" will produce the desirable out-performing ramp in gains.
* Please note that once current trade is closed, system equity will be "scaled down" to ~$100,000 - that will re-calculate previous ET posted data.
Thank you for following "The IBD Experiment"!.
System currently has ~$17k in equity (~$13.6k open profit),
40% compound annual return, 10% (max) drawdown,
3 trades (2 closed, 1 open).
Hypothetical Trading Results
Open Positions
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Current Price P/L
12/7/10 9:31 BUY 6 @NQH1 2212.00 0 2327.75 $13,890
Recently Closed Trades
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Price Risk P/L
11/18/10 9:32 SELL 4 @NQZ0 2125.25 12/7 9:30 2215.50 Normal ($7,220)
10/7/10 9:30 BUY 5 @NQZ0 2015.25 11/18 9:32 2121.00 Normal $10,575
Statistics
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades 3
# Profitable 2 (66.7%)
Avg trade duration 40.0 days
Annual return (compounded) 39.8%
Average win $12,022
Average loss $7,220
Profit factor 3.3:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 10.24%
drawdown period Nov 09, 2010 to Dec 08, 2010
Correlation w/ S&P 0.333
Sharpe ratio 2.103
AutoTrade Factor 0%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 18.8%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%
What has changed?
I've since opted to stop trading the previously ET posted system, to put into permanent place it's near replica.
What are the differences?
From the first post, my original futures system start date: 12-Oct-2010. A nearly identical futures system (that will be commented on going forward) was started 5 days earlier: 07-Oct-2010.
Another difference is starting capital. From first post - 12-Oct-2010: System inception ($100,000). Current system data - 07-Oct-2010: System inception ($160,000).* Same approximate leverage into trades can be seen below, also.
The shift over to currently reported system came with last closed trade in original system on 17-Dec-2010:
(Old) Hypothetical Trading Results
Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Price Risk P/L
12/6/10 9:14 BUY 2 @NQZ0 2187.75 12/17 13:40 2223.75 Low $1,440
11/18/10 9:30 SELL 2 @NQZ0 2121.00 12/6 9:14 2187.75 Normal ($2,670)
10/13/10 9:30 BUY 4 @NQZ0 2051.00 11/18 9:30 2121.75 Low $5,660
(Old) Statistics
All Statistics Based on Hypothetical Results
Trades 3
# Profitable 2 (66.7%)
Avg trade duration 21.7 days
Annual return (compounded) 15.3%
Average win $3,550
Average loss $2,670
Profit factor 2.7:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 7.95%
drawdown period Nov 09, 2010 to Nov 16, 2010
Correlation w/ S&P 0.260
Sharpe ratio 1.362
AutoTrade Factor 0%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%
As you can see no adverse reasons to shift to my currently reported "final" futures system.
I'd also like to make a brief comment on previous (albeit muted) system drawdown. It came as IBD pre-maturely announced "market in correction" as the indexes contracted - only to see the market rebound just as my system closed the LONG position for a SHORT. Not many days later, as the indexes again reached new recent highs, the reputable publication posted a shift back into "confirmed uptrend" that we have been following since (closed SHORT and opened LONG).
In ~13 years following IBD, I've only seen them re-tract a "correction" call once, and not require a "follow-through" signal to confirm the next uptrend. Bad timing for my new system, I guess:
The effect has not only been the previously mentioned to-date, historical drawdown -- but equity gains have thus far "only" tracked the S&P 500 index (when we could already been severely outperforming).
We still hold out hope that the next "market shift" will produce the desirable out-performing ramp in gains.
* Please note that once current trade is closed, system equity will be "scaled down" to ~$100,000 - that will re-calculate previous ET posted data.
Thank you for following "The IBD Experiment"!.
Update -
Moving along. . .systems have overcome drawdown and have gained more rapidly than most with continued uptrend.
100% mechanical trading - C2 independently audited.
(see profile for url)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010
+0.2% (3.7%)
2011 +5.5% +10.4%
Age: 87 days
3 trades
Return: 16%
Compound Annual Return: 72%
Max Drawdown: 6%
Sharpe: 2.692
My QLD/QID system is a strategy which trades ETFs - picking up where KC QLD/QID left off - is under Collective2.com audit.
System Features
Holds LONG QLD/QID positions based upon market bias: uptrends and corrections
A purely mechanical trend-following system that uses 2.5X (max) leverage.
Signals back-tested for the life of the stock market. Forward-tested since 1998.
Uses protective Stop Loss orders.
Projected (Long-Term) Average Annual Return (est.): 125%
Average Drawdown (est.): 25%
Overview
Follow the IBD Experiment: System designed to capitalize Long/Short, trading
ULTRA ProShares QQQ: QLD and QID, using IBD's "Market Pulse" or general market
outlook.
System Description
Investors Business Daily or IBD provides extensive research for institutional
clients. Historically, every market uptrend has been "confirmed" with a
follow-through day. Conversely, a multiple distribution day stack can point to a
market correction.
This system is designed to profit from IBD's market shift calls as outlined in
the newspaper's "The Big Picture". I also use other proprietary measures that
have been back-tested for over 3 years at Collective2.
All "swing" trades are market orders placed before 9:30 am EST to be executed at
the Stock Market open. Also uses protective stop-loss orders in case of
emergencies as capital preservation is the top priority.
This system is developed to greatly out-perform stocks for the long-term, while
keeping loss periods contained. This trend-following ETF system holds ULTRA
ProShares QQQ: QLD and QID, based on IBD's market bias.
Thank you for following and welcome to the IBD Experiment!
Moving along. . .systems have overcome drawdown and have gained more rapidly than most with continued uptrend.
100% mechanical trading - C2 independently audited.
(see profile for url)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010
+0.2% (3.7%)
2011 +5.5% +10.4%
Age: 87 days
3 trades
Return: 16%
Compound Annual Return: 72%
Max Drawdown: 6%
Sharpe: 2.692
My QLD/QID system is a strategy which trades ETFs - picking up where KC QLD/QID left off - is under Collective2.com audit.
System Features
Holds LONG QLD/QID positions based upon market bias: uptrends and corrections
A purely mechanical trend-following system that uses 2.5X (max) leverage.
Signals back-tested for the life of the stock market. Forward-tested since 1998.
Uses protective Stop Loss orders.
Projected (Long-Term) Average Annual Return (est.): 125%
Average Drawdown (est.): 25%
Overview
Follow the IBD Experiment: System designed to capitalize Long/Short, trading
ULTRA ProShares QQQ: QLD and QID, using IBD's "Market Pulse" or general market
outlook.
System Description
Investors Business Daily or IBD provides extensive research for institutional
clients. Historically, every market uptrend has been "confirmed" with a
follow-through day. Conversely, a multiple distribution day stack can point to a
market correction.
This system is designed to profit from IBD's market shift calls as outlined in
the newspaper's "The Big Picture". I also use other proprietary measures that
have been back-tested for over 3 years at Collective2.
All "swing" trades are market orders placed before 9:30 am EST to be executed at
the Stock Market open. Also uses protective stop-loss orders in case of
emergencies as capital preservation is the top priority.
This system is developed to greatly out-perform stocks for the long-term, while
keeping loss periods contained. This trend-following ETF system holds ULTRA
ProShares QQQ: QLD and QID, based on IBD's market bias.
Thank you for following and welcome to the IBD Experiment!
Update -
Moving along. . .systems have overcome drawdown and have gained more rapidly than most with continued uptrend.
100% mechanical trading - C2 independently audited.
(see profile for url)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010
+7.5% (0.5%) (3.6%)
2011 +4.8% +7.4%
Age: 133 days
3 trades
Return: 16%
Compound Annual Return: 55%
Max Drawdown: 10%
Sharpe: 2.869
My NQ system is a strategy which trades Futures - picking up where KC Hedge left off - is under Collective2.com audit.
System Features
Holds LONG or SHORT futures positions based upon market bias: uptrends and corrections
A purely mechanical trend-following system that uses 2.5X (max) leverage.
Signals back-tested for the life of the stock market. Forward-tested since 1998.
Uses protective Stop Loss orders.
Projected (Long-Term) Average Annual Return (est.): 125%
Average Drawdown (est.): 25%
Overview
Follow the IBD Experiment: System designed to capitalize Long/Short, trading
NASDAQ-100 e-mini futures contracts, using IBD's "Market Pulse" or general
market outlook.
System Description
Investors Business Daily or IBD provides extensive research for institutional
clients. Historically, every market uptrend has been "confirmed" with a
follow-through day. Conversely, a multiple distribution day stack can point to a
market correction.
This system is designed to profit from IBD's market shift calls as outlined in
the newspaper's "The Big Picture". I also use other proprietary measures that
have been back-tested for over 3 years at Collective2.
All "swing" trades are market orders placed before 9:30 am EST to be executed at
the Stock Market open. Also uses protective stop-loss orders in case of
emergencies as capital preservation is the top priority.
This system is developed to greatly out-perform stocks for the long-term, while
keeping loss periods contained. This trend-following system holds NQ contracts
either Long or Short based on IBD's market bias.
Thank you for following and welcome to the IBD Experiment!
Moving along. . .systems have overcome drawdown and have gained more rapidly than most with continued uptrend.
100% mechanical trading - C2 independently audited.
(see profile for url)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010
+7.5% (0.5%) (3.6%)
2011 +4.8% +7.4%
Age: 133 days
3 trades
Return: 16%
Compound Annual Return: 55%
Max Drawdown: 10%
Sharpe: 2.869
My NQ system is a strategy which trades Futures - picking up where KC Hedge left off - is under Collective2.com audit.
System Features
Holds LONG or SHORT futures positions based upon market bias: uptrends and corrections
A purely mechanical trend-following system that uses 2.5X (max) leverage.
Signals back-tested for the life of the stock market. Forward-tested since 1998.
Uses protective Stop Loss orders.
Projected (Long-Term) Average Annual Return (est.): 125%
Average Drawdown (est.): 25%
Overview
Follow the IBD Experiment: System designed to capitalize Long/Short, trading
NASDAQ-100 e-mini futures contracts, using IBD's "Market Pulse" or general
market outlook.
System Description
Investors Business Daily or IBD provides extensive research for institutional
clients. Historically, every market uptrend has been "confirmed" with a
follow-through day. Conversely, a multiple distribution day stack can point to a
market correction.
This system is designed to profit from IBD's market shift calls as outlined in
the newspaper's "The Big Picture". I also use other proprietary measures that
have been back-tested for over 3 years at Collective2.
All "swing" trades are market orders placed before 9:30 am EST to be executed at
the Stock Market open. Also uses protective stop-loss orders in case of
emergencies as capital preservation is the top priority.
This system is developed to greatly out-perform stocks for the long-term, while
keeping loss periods contained. This trend-following system holds NQ contracts
either Long or Short based on IBD's market bias.
Thank you for following and welcome to the IBD Experiment!
- Status